Saturday 29 December 2012

COT data of Dec 24th 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Values fell quite sharply into last Monday's close (NB all figures were taken at the close of Dec 24th, owing to the holiday break). However, from that 1.6125 level, the Pound has fluctuated without major fresh direction. Total o/i on the 24th was lower, at 181219, with spreads remaining low at 234 (still 0.1% of the total). 

Nett differences:
Commercials -62763 (from -53317).  Large Specs +37321 (from +28036).  Small Specs +25442 (from 25281).  
Proportions:  
Commercials (52.8% of total o/i) - 35.4% of Longs, 70.1% of Shorts, balance minus 34.7
Large Specs (30.8% of total) - 41.2% of Longs, 20.6% of Shorts, balance plus 20.6
Small Specs (16.4% of total) - 23.4% of Longs, 9.3% of Shorts, balance plus 14.1
Commercials reduced their longs, but only in line with the lower overall o/i; however, they added to shorts considerably, with their nett negative balance noticeably bigger. Large Specs reduced longs somewhat, but reduced their shorts even more, moving to a large positive balance. Small Specs showed little change to either longs or shorts, going slightly more positive on balance.

The most evident changes are in the shorts held by Commercials (well up), and by Large Specs (well down). Positioning by all 3 classes keeps us bearish on the Pound.

Sunday 25 November 2012

COT data of Nov 13th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]


With publication of the latest figures by the CFTC delayed by the Thanksgiving holiday, now seems a good time to catch up with events over the last month.

After values dropped somewhat (as expected), they have started to pick up again, and this should continue - depending on confirmation from the latest figures when they come out Monday night.

Total open interest was down, at 149173, and nett differences were lower - latest show Commercials -19431 (from -31150),  Large Specs +8228 (from +19279), and Small Specs +11203 (from +11871). 
 
Proportions:  
Commercials (53.7% of total o/i) - 47.2% of Longs, 60.3% of Shorts, balance minus 13.1
Large Specs (28.1% of total) - 30.9% of Longs, 25.3% of Shorts, balance plus 5.6
Small Specs (18.2% of total) - 21.9% of Longs, 14.4% of Shorts, balance plus 7.5
Commercials have been adding to longs and reducing shorts, while Large Specs have done the reverse. Small Specs have not made major changes, but on balance remain somewhat overcommitted to the long side. In spite of that, we generally follow the lead of the Commercials, and therefore tend to the bull side.

But we'll wait for Monday night before drawing any further conclusions.

Saturday 13 October 2012

COT data of Oct 9th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Values fell by last Tuesday' close to around 1.6000, although they have bounced slightly since then (Friday night's close 1.6070). Total o/i was lower, at 161,457, with spreads a little higher but still very low, at only 306.


Nett differences: 
Commercials -41892 from -56136.  Large Specs +22572, from +30094.  Small Specs +19320, from +26042. Nothing very remarkable here.
 
Proportions:  
Commercials (56.2% of total o/i) - 43.2% of Longs, 69.2% of Shorts, balance minus 26.0
Large Specs (26.6% of total) - 33.6% of Longs, 19.6% of Shorts, balance plus 14.0
Small Specs (17.2% of total) - 23.2% of Longs, 11.2% of Shorts, balance plus 12.0
 
Commercials made little change to their longs, but in a reduced total, their proportion increased. They reduced their shorts considerably, suggesting that they do not believe strongly in much lower values at this time.

Large Specs reduced their longs, presumably taking some profits, and although they reduced their total shorts, that proportion remained roughly unchanged.  Small Specs behaved in much the same manner, but their proportion of shorts increased; if one takes a contrarian view, one might expect slightly higher prices from here, and there seems nothing in the other positions to gainsay this view - based on these rather neutral figures, we look for Sterling to remain steady and featureless for the time being.

Saturday 6 October 2012

COT data of Oct 2nd, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Values slightly lower again, to 1.6135 on Tuesday 2nd; total o/i up, to 177746, with spreads again very low, at only 86.

Nett differences: 
Commercials -56136, from -53922.  Large Specs +30094, from +27137.  Small Specs +26042, from +26785. Changes are generally in line with the increase in total o/i.
 
Proportions:  
Commercials (54.8% of total o/i) - 39.0% of Longs, 70.6% of Shorts, balance minus 31.6
Large Specs (28.0% of total) - 36.4% of Longs, 19.5% of Shorts, balance plus 16.9
Small Specs (17.2% of total) - 24.6% of Longs, 9.9% of Shorts, balance plus 14.7
 
Commercials have added a little to both their longs and (slightly more) their shorts, taking them (just) to their biggest minus balance this year. Large Specs - with the trend not having turned significantly - are slightly longer overall, and Small Specs - although still holding a surprisingly large proportion of the total o/i - are a little less bullish than they were. However, with little significant change anywhere, last week's comments remain valid - we look for Sterling to fall rather than rise.

Sunday 30 September 2012

COT data of Sept 25th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Values slightly lower, to 1.6190 on Tuesday 25th; total o/i up, to 172,103, with spreads very low, at 135.

Nett differences: 
Commercials -53922, from -37352.  Large Specs +27137, from +14412.  Small Specs +26785, from +22940.
 
Proportions:  
Commercials (55.0% of total o/i) - 39.3% of Longs, 70.7% of Shorts, balance minus 31.4
Large Specs (27.5% of total) - 35.4% of Longs, 19.6% of Shorts, balance plus 15.8
Small Specs (17.5% of total) - 25.3% of Longs, 9.7% of Shorts, balance plus 15.6
 
Commercials have added a little to their longs, but even more to their shorts, taking them to their biggest minus balance this year. Basis May 8th (a week after prices reached their rally high, and before a fall of almost 800 points), Commercials were nett minus 24.3, Large Specs nett plus 12.7, and Small Specs nett plus 11.6 - all these figures have now been exceeded. On this basis, we maintain last week's opinion - we look for a fall in prices soon.

Sunday 23 September 2012

COT data of Sept 18th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Values up again, to 1.6245 on Tuesday 18th; total o/i down, to 151,305, with spreads much lower, at 578.

Nett differences: 
Commercials -37352, from -14803.  Large Specs +14412, from -4366.  Small Specs +22940, from +19169.
 
Proportions:  
Commercials (50.5% of total o/i) - 38.1% of Longs, 62.9% of Shorts, balance minus 24.8
Large Specs (30.1% of total) - 34.9% of Longs, 25.3% of Shorts, balance plus 9.6 
Small Specs (19.4% of total) - 27.0% of Longs, 11.8% of Shorts, balance plus 15.2
 
Commercials have their biggest minus balance since early May, and Small Specs their largest plus balance -
we look for a fall in prices soon.

Saturday 15 September 2012

COT data of Sept 11th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Values continued to move higher, closing at 1.6070 on Tuesday 11th; total o/i increased considerably, reaching 181682 (from 133755), while spreads also increased (to 4712, from 79).


Nett differences moved noticeably again, with Commercials becoming considerably more negative at -14803 (from -1525), and Large Specs remaining negative, but not remarkably so (-4366, from- 6868). Small Specs however became even longer (nett +19169, from +8393). The figures themselves are not extraordinary, but the changes may be significant.
 
Proportionally, Commercials continued adding to their share of the total long position, with 49.5% (from 43.1%), but more importantly they added considerably to their shorts, both outright and proportionally (moving to 57.9% of total shorts, from 44.2%). Their share of the total o/i increased as well, to 53.7% (from 43.6%) - still a slightly low figure, but much nearer the normal 55-65% range.

Large Specs again reduced their share of total longs, with 27.9% (from 31.3%). Their shorts were also down, to 30.3% (from 36.4%), with total commitments dropping once again to 29.1% (from 33.9%). Their balance remains negative (minus 2.4, from minus 5.1), which is surprising, considering the strength and length of the recent uptrend.
Small Specs remained the most significant sector, even though their share of the total o/i came down to 17.2%. Their total longs came down to 22.6% (from 25.6%), but with their nett shorts down to 11.8% (from 19.3%), their balance of plus 10.8 was completely opposed by the Commercials (minus 8.4) and the Large Specs (minus 2.4). This is not a comfortable situation - we continue to feel that a decline, once it starts, could be abrupt.

Sunday 9 September 2012

COT data of Sept 4th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]


British Pounds - Values moved slightly higher from the previous report date (and have moved higher again since then). Total o/i stood at 133755 (from 117034), while spreads were very low (79, from 633).

Nett differences moved noticeably again, with Commercials remaining negative, but less so (-1525, from -6109), and Large Specs also becoming negative (- 6868, from +1968). Small Specs continued to add to longs (nett +8393, from +4141). 
Proportionally, Commercials started adding to their share of the total long position, with 43.1% (from the previous very low 39.6%), while their shorts were slightly lower, at 44.2% (from 44.9%). Their share of the total o/i increased slightly, to 43.6% (from 42.7%), still a rather low figure. Normally, their share stands in the 55-65% range.

Large Specs reduced their share of total longs, with 31.3% (from 36.4%). Their shorts were higher, at 36.4% (from 34.7%), with total commitments dropping to 33.9% (from 35.6%). Their balance thus moves to minus 5.1, from plus 1.7 - back to their normal stance. However, Small Specs added to longs yet again, now holding 25.6%, with shorts down to 19.3%. Their balance goes to a rather high plus 6.3, although their share of the total dropped a little, from 22.7% to 22.5%. Their balance remains well below the highest that we have seen, but with both the Commercials and the Large Specs on the other side, the danger of liquidation by weak holders remains high - a fall in values could initiate considerable selling pressure.

There are still no strong signals, but on balance the start of any decline will make us more convincedly bearish.

Sunday 2 September 2012

COT data of August 28th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Moved higher over the 2-week period since our last report, managing a rally to just above 1.5900 on Aug 23rd - however, there was no follow-through, and last Tuesday's close was off the best at 1.5820. Total o/i (at 117034) was a little higher, although down from the previous week, and spreads (at 633, 0.5% of the total) remained low.

Nett differences were more interesting than usual, with Commercials moving from positive to negative (-5155 basis the 21st, -6109 basis the 28th), and Large Specs moving in the reverse direction (+7833 basis the 21st,  but back to +1968 basis the 28th). Small Specs were possibly the most significant, showing -2678 basis the 21st, but moving to nett long at +4141 basis the 28th. 
Proportionally, Commercials reduced their share of the total long position even further, to 39.6% (from 40.0%), while their shorts were not much changed, at 44.9% (from 44.4%). Their share of the total o/i continued to decline, to 42.7% - a rather low figure.

Large Specs again increased their share of total longs, with 36.4% (from 22.7% just a month ago). Their shorts were also higher, at 34.7%, with total commitments rising to 35.6%. Their balance of plus 1.7 does not provide much guidance either way. Small Specs added to longs once again, now holding 24.0%, with shorts down to 20.4%. Their share of the total is now rather high, at 22.7%.

Overall, Commercials have moved to a nett balance of minus 5.3; at the January lows, the figure was plus 31.1, while soon after the May high and before the subsequent decline it was minus 24.2, so there is as yet no signal that the current steadiness is about to end - nevertheless, the move from nett short to nett long by the Small Specs (currently plus 3.6, compared to 2012 extremes of minus 11.4 at the January lows and plus 12.0 at the May highs), suggests that weak holders could be forced to liquidate if values start to fall.

With no strong signals being given, we have to remain patient, but on balance will wait to become more convincedly bearish.

Tuesday 21 August 2012

COT data of August 14th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Yet again remained inside the current range, closing last Tuesday at 1.5675. Total o/i (at 114042) was a little lower, with spreads (at 702, 0.6% of the total) also low.

Nett differences showed Commercials +8763 (from +20011), and Large Specs -288 (from -8275) - as near to square as could be. Small Specs decreased their nett short slightly, at -8475 (from -11736).
 
Proportionally, Commercials reduced their share of the total long position to a recent low of 53.9% (from 62.2%), while their shorts were not much changed, at 46.2% (from 44.6%). Their share of the total o/i was unremarkable, at 50.0% (from 53.4%) - recent figures show them holding between around 47 and 53 percent.
Large Specs increased their share of total longs, with 28.3% (from 22.7% previously). Their shorts were a shade lower, at 28.5% (from 30.0%), with total commitments rising to 28.4% (from 26.4%). 
Small Specs added to longs, and now hold 17.8% (from 15.1%), while their shorts remained almost unchanged at 25.3% (versus 25.4%). Their share of the total is comparatively high, at 21.6%.
In this period, Commercials have reduced longs considerably, while adding slightly to shorts, moving to a nett balance of plus 7.7, which is low. Large Specs are almost square, which is a fair reflection of current market action, and with Small Specs increasing their participation (inside a small total), we have to change our stance to slightly bearish.

Thursday 16 August 2012

O & E [Nikkei] Aug 16, 2012

Note that the Nikkei has closed today well above the Kumo (Cloud), which could be considerably more significant than the early July close at 9104 ....

Saturday 11 August 2012

COT data of August 7th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Remained inside the current range, closing last Tuesday at 1.5625. Total o/i (at 115125) was higher, although still on the low side, while spreads (1661) were also up, taking their share to 1.4% (from 1.0%) - also still on the low side.

Nett differences showed Commercials +20011 (from +12141), and Large Specs -8275 (from -1810) - the change shows up better on the 'proportional' figures (see below). Small Specs increased their nett short slightly, at -11736 (from -10331).
Proportionally, Commercials moved from 56.0% of the total long position to 62.2%, while their shorts were almost unchanged, at 44.6% (from 44.9%). Not surprisingly, their share of the total o/i went up a little, to 53.4% - although this remains unremarkable.

Large Specs reduced their share of total longs just as Commercials increased theirs, with 22.7% (versus 28.5% previously). Their shorts were almost unchanged, at 30.0% (from 30.2%), with total commitments falling to 26.4% (from 29.4%). 

Small Specs were little changed overall; with 15.1% (15.5%) of total longs, 25.4% (24.9%) of total shorts, and an unchanged 20.2% of the overall total. 

With Commercials adding to longs, but no major imbalances showing, we revert to a moderately bullish stance on the Pound. 

Sunday 5 August 2012

COT data of July 31st, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Very similar comments to previous - last Tuesday's close, at 1.5680, continued the see-saw pattern seen since early June - the Pound was up from the previous week, but still remained inside the recent range. 

Total o/i (at 110770) was noticeably lower, but spreads (1128) were barely changed, keeping the proportion of the total at 1.0%.

Nett differences showed Commercials +12141 (from +17392), and Large Specs -1810 (from -2934), with both moving still closer to neutral - again, a possible sign of increased uncertainty. Small Specs reduced their nett short, at -10331 (from -14458).
 
None of the figures, whether the netts or the proportions, give much indication of future direction, with the previously interesting Small Specs adding to longs and reducing their out-of-balance shorts. Their proportion of the total was slightly higher, at 20.2% (previously 19.8%), but their nett proportion was very manageable at minus 9.4 (from minus 12.6) - made up of 15.5% of total Longs and 24.9% of total Shorts.

Commercials reduced Longs considerably, with 56.0% (from 61.0%) of total Longs, and reduced their Shorts, but to a lesser extent (holding 44.9% compared to 45.9%); Large Specs held 28.5% (from 25.5%) and 30.2% (from 28.0%) respectively.



With none of the figures providing particular guidance, we take refuge in a neutral stance for the time being.

Saturday 28 July 2012

COT data of July 24th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Last Tuesday's close, at 1.5505, continued the see-saw pattern seen since early June - the Pound was down from the previous week, but still remained inside the recent range. 

Total o/i (at 116143) was down, but not by much; spreads however (1119) were up - not much in absolute numbers, but a higher proportion of the total (at 1.0%). An increase normally signifies increasing uncertainty.

Nett differences showed Commercials +17392 (from +21648), and Large Specs -2934 (from -7453), with both moving closer to neutral - again, a possible sign of increased uncertainty. Small Specs however continued to go short, at -14458 (from -14095).
Small Spec figures continue to be the most interesting - their proportion of the total was a little lower, but remained rather high at 19.8% (previously 20.5%), with their share 13.5% (14.5%) of the Longs and a still high 26.1% (26.6%) of the Shorts. 

Commercials held 61.0% (56.3%) of total Longs, but increased their share of total Shorts, holding 45.9% (from 37.8%); Large Specs held 25.5% (from 29.2%) and 28.0% (from 35.6%) respectively.

At first sight, Commercials adding to Shorts more than they added to Longs might suggest a bearish attitude - however, they are able to hold losing positions much longer than the Small Specs can, and it is the latter whose holdings are out of the norm - we shall therefore continue to be slightly bullish on the Pound, although not to any major extent.

Tuesday 24 July 2012

COT data of July 17th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Last Tuesday's close, at 1.5655, was up on the week, but still remained inside the recent range. 

Total o/i (116976) was down, but not by much, and spreads (875) were amost unchanged. Nett differences also showed very little change - Commercials +21548 (from +21648), Large Specs -7453 (from -7622), and Small Specs -14095 (from -14026.
 
Small Spec figures are still potentially the most interesting - their proportion of the total remained high, at 20.5% (previously 21.3%), with 14.5% (15.3%) of the Longs and a still high 26.6% (27.3%) of the Shorts. 

Commercials hold 56.3% (56.6%) of total Longs, and only 37.8% (38.0%) of total Shorts, while Large Specs hold 29.2% (28.1%) and 35.6% (34.6%) respectively.

Once again, the figures provide very little new guidance - Commercials have barely changed their attitude over the week. Only the short position held by Small Specs provides a hint that we should remain slightly bullish on the Pound, although not to any major extent.

Monday 16 July 2012

COT data of July 10th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Last Tuesday's close, at 1.5520, was lower on the week, but remained inside the recent range - as have prices since then ...

Total o/i (117616) was higher, but not remarkably so, and spreads (880) were also up. Nett differences increased as opinions (on both sides) hardened, but they were still not excessive - Commercials +21648 (from  +13394), Large Specs -7622 (from -5353), and Small Specs -14026 (from -10976).
Small Spec figures remain the most interesting - their proportion of the total was up again, although only slightly, at 21.3%, with 15.3% of the Longs and a high 27.3% of the Shorts. 

Commercials still hold a comparatively low 56.6% of total Longs, and only 38.0% of total Shorts, while Large Specs hold 28.1% and 34.6% respectively. These figures provide little new guidance, but we note that
Commercials are now adding to Longs while still reducing Shorts - taken in conjunction with the short position held by Small Specs, we'll go back to being slightly bullish on the Pound, although not to any major extent.

Tuesday 10 July 2012

COT data of July 3rd, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Last Tuesday's close, at 1.5690, showed little change, although prices have fallen slightly since then.

Total o/i (108208) was down again, with spreads (557) also down. Nett differences on the other hand were slightly higher, but still routine - Commercials +16329 (from +13394), and Large Specs -5353 (from -758), with Small Specs showing a small decrease to -10976 (from -12636).
 
Our figures for Small Specs at the last posting were wrong - proportional holdings should have shown them with 19.8% of the total o/i, not 25.3% - the split however was correct, at 14.2% of total Longs, and 25.3% of total Shorts. The latest figures show their proportion of the total up again, to 20.6% - very high - with 15.5% of the Longs and 25.7% of the Shorts. 

With both Commercials and Large Specs reducing their interest in the market, the figures suggest little major change in prices can be expected. Commercials hold 54.6% of total Longs, and 39.4% of total Shorts, and Large Specs 29.9% and 34.9% respectively. Nothing very surprising there.
With Commercials slightly reducing Longs, and more noticeably reducing Shorts, we are moving to a neutral stance for the time being. 

Monday 2 July 2012

COT data of June 26th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Last Tuesday's close, at 1.5640, was lower, and further advances have proved difficult.

Total o/i (114561) was down to quite low levels - spreads (946) likewise, and netts were down in line - Commercials +13394 (from +29210), and Large Specs -758 (from -17153), with Small Specs showing an increase at -12636 (from -12057).
 
This Small Spec position was borne out by the proportional holdings, which showed them with 25.3% of the total o/i (14.2% of total longs, and 25.3% of total shorts). This overweight position would lead one to expect a rush of short-covering if prices started to move up - but perhaps we've already seen this after the EU news last Friday.  

The other figures showed participants moving closer to neutral - Commercials held 48.8% of the total o/i (54.7% of the Longs, 42.9% of the Shorts = nett plus 11.8), Large Specs had 31.4 of the total (31.1% of Longs, 31.8% of Shorts = nett minus 0.7). 

With Commercials reducing Longs (they held 74.8% of the total just 2 weeks ago) as well as adding to Shorts, we are no longer bullish of the Pound - although remaining nervous about the large Small Spec short position.

Sunday 24 June 2012

COT data of June 19th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Tuesday's close was higher again, at 1.5725, but further advances may prove more difficult.


Total o/i (and the split of holdings) were influenced by the expiry of the June position, with the total down from 178648 to 121624. Commercials now hold only 47.3% of the total o/i (down from 63.9%), and Large Specs hold 33.9% (up from 22.5%). Small Specs have 18.8% of the total (from 13.6%), a comparatively high proportion - price moves therefore could be sharper than normal.


Spreads were down, but were still 1.1% of the total.

Commercial longs still comprised the largest holding, at 59.4% of the sharply reduced total, with their shorts at 35.1%.  Their Nett however moved up to plus 24.3, from plus 21.8. This is again the highest figure for some time, and it will be interesting to see whether they maintain this proportion once total o/i starts to rise again. Large Specs moved up to 26.8% of total Longs (from 15.9%), and to 41.1% of total Shorts (from 29.0%) - but their Nett moved only from minus 13.1 to minus 14.3. Small Specs also showed little overall change in their Nett, at minus 10.0 (from minus 8.7), holding 13.8% of total Longs (from 9.3%), but 23.8% of total Shorts (from 18.0%). This remains on the high side, still suggesting there are sizeable shorts in weak hands.
Nett differences remained unexciting, with Commercials plus 29210 (from plus 38353), Large Specs minus 17153 (from minus 23112), and Small Specs minus 12057 (from minus 15241). It's the proportions of the total that are interesting ...


We remain - rather more cautiously - on the bull side of the Pound.

Sunday 17 June 2012

COT data of June 12th 2012


British Pounds - Tuesday's close was higher, at 1.5570, and values have continued to advance slightly since then. The figures suggest that this trend should continue.
Total o/i was down a little, but not to any remarkable extent, while spreads were almost unchanged, still at 1.4% of the total. 
Commercials once again raised their share of total Longs, to 74.8% (from 69.5%), and again reduced their share of Shorts, to 53.0% from 59.0%. Nett therefore moved to plus 21.8, from plus 10.5. This is the highest figure for some time (mid-March, in fact). Large Specs moved to 15.9% of total Longs (from 21.5%), and - significantly - to 29.0% of total Shorts (from 23.1%) - their nett moved from minus 1.6 to minus 13.1. Small Specs showed little overall change on the week, with 9.3% of total Longs (from 9.0%), and 18.0% of total Shorts (from 17.9%) - their nett therefore moved from minus 8.9 to minus 8.7. This is still on the high side, suggesting sizeable shorts are still in weak hands.
Nett differences continued to move in the same direction as previously, with Commercials plus 38353 (from plus 19090), Large Specs minus 23112 (from minus 2867), but Small Specs barely changed, at minus 15241 (from minus 16223).

We remain on the bull side of the Pound.

Sunday 10 June 2012

COT data of June 5th 2012.

British Pounds - Tuesday's close was lower again, and in distinctly oversold territory. Prices since then have increased a shade, but COT figures suggest there's more of that to come. Commercials continue to move from short to long.

Total o/i was up a little, but remained unremarkable, at 184583. Spreads however rose, from 0.5% of the total to 1.4%, suggesting some indecision.

Commercials again raised their share of total Longs, to 69.5% (from 66.5%), and reduced their share of Shorts significantly, to 59.0% from 68.3%. Nett therefore moved to plus 10.5, from minus 1.8. Large Specs moved to 21.5% of total Longs (from 20.0%), and - more importantly - to 23.1% of total Shorts (from 19.2%) - their nett moved from plus 0.8 to minus 1.6. Small Specs went down to only 9.0% of total Longs (from 13.5%), but their total Shorts went up to 17.9% (from 12.5%).

Nett differences showed reversals in all categories: Commercials plus 19090, from minus 3344, Large Specs minus 2867, from plus 1475, and Small Specs minus 16223, from plus 1869. This last may prove especially significant, since Small Specs are viewed as a contrary indicator because they are so often wrong.

So we continue to expect a change of trend, from bearish to bullish - but the timing remains open.


Sunday 3 June 2012

COT data of May 29th 2012

British Pounds - Tuesday's close was lower again, but our suggestion that "the downtrend may be ending" was somewhat previous. Nevertheless, the figures continue to show that Commercials are moving from noticeably short to almost square.

Total o/i was down again, at 181435, with the proportion of spreads around unchanged, at 0.5% of the total.

Commercials again raised their share of total Longs, to 66.5% (from 63.3%), and reduced their share of Shorts to 68.3% (from 72.1%). Nett therefore was minus 1.8 (from minus 8.8), continuing the recent trend. Large Specs moved to 20.0% of total Longs (from 22.3%), and to 19.2% of total Shorts (from 16.1%) - so their nett moved from plus 6.2 to plus 0.8. Small Specs went down to 13.5% of total Longs (from 14.4%), while their total Shorts went up to 12.5% (from 11.8%).

Nett differences were once again all sharply reduced - Commercials minus 3344 (from minus 16179), Large Specs plus 1475 (from plus 11340), and Small Specs plus 1869 (from plus 4839).

 With this background, we continue to watch carefully for the next technical trigger that will turn the market round.

Sunday 27 May 2012

COT data of May 22nd 2012

British Pounds - Tuesday's close: was lower, but it looks like the downtrend may be ending.

Total o/i was down, at 184497, with spreads up, at 0.5% of the total - suggesting slightly increased indecision. 

Commercials raised their share of total Longs considerably, to 63.3% (from 51.5%), and reduced their share of Shorts to 72.1% (from 75.0%). Nett therefore was minus 8.8, a marked change from the previous 23.5 . Large Specs moved to 22.3% of total Longs (from 28.9%), and to 16.1% of total Shorts (from 16.3%) - small changes, but moving the nett to plus 6.2, from plus 12.6.  If the market starts to move higher, they may hurry to get long again. Small Specs went down to 14.4% of total Longs (from 19.6%), but their total Shorts went up to 11.8% (from 8.7%). Nett differences were all sharply reduced - Commercials minus 16179 (from minus 46722), Large Specs plus 11340 (from plus 25021), and Small Specs plus 4839 (from plus 21701).

Overall, a change in trend looks due some time fairly soon.

Sunday 20 May 2012

COT data of May 15th 2012

British Pounds - Tuesday's close at 1.5995 was down a little from the previous week, but not really enough to make money - and it looks like the forthcoming period will be much the same. Changes in holdings were minimal, although overall the direction looks unaltered.

Commercials raised their share of total Longs to 51.5% (from 49.1%), but also increased their Shorts to 75.0% (from 73.4%). Nett therefore was minus 23.5, only a marginal change from the previous minus 24.3. Similarly, Large Specs moved to 28.9% of total Longs (from 29.9%), and to 16.3% of total Shorts (from 17.2%). Small Specs held 19.6% of total Longs (from 21.0%), and 8.7% of total Shorts (from 9.4%). Netts were plus 12.6 (from plus 12.7), and plus 10.9 (from plus 11.6) respectively - nothing very significant there ...


So we'll remain somewhat bearish on the Pound, but not very excited about it ...

Wednesday 16 May 2012

COT data of May 8th 2012

British Pounds - The close on Tuesday of last week was 1.6160, with prices pausing after some improvement from our last posting. Prices since then have tended to ease, in line with our expectations, and we feel this tendency will probably continue.

Latest figures show Commercials raising their share of an increasing Total Open Interest, at 61.2%, compared to a reduced 23.6% for Large Specs and a not-much-changed 15.2% for Small Specs. Nett positions show Commercials at minus 24.3 (from plus 13.8 on April 10th), Large Specs at plus 23.6 (compared to minus 12.9), and Small Specs at plus 11.6 (versus minus 0.9). Split down, the figures show Commercials hold 49.1% of total Longs, Large Specs have 29.9%, and Small Specs have 21.0%. On the Short side, Commercials now hold 73.4% (a high number), Large Specs 17.2% (low), and Small Specs 9.4% (comparatively low).

The significant changes show Large Specs have added to Longs and reduced their Shorts, while Commercials have added to Shorts - bearish ....

Monday 14 May 2012

COT data of May 8th 2012

British Pounds - More detailed report to follow, but it's interesting to see that Commercials continue to short the Pound at an increasing rate, while both Large and Small Specs add to longs - we'd rather be on the short side!

Tuesday 24 April 2012

London COT of April 17th 2012

Nothing remarkable showing in Cocoa or Coffee, but SUGAR shows a big switch, with Commercials moving their share of the total long position to 44.1%, from 34.2% while keeeping 81.5% (from 82.8%) of the total shorts. Large Specs didn't change that much, but Small Specs (the 'Contrary Indicator') went overall short, from long, with 5.7% of the total longs, and 9.8% of the total shorts.
That should be a sign that we're somewhere near the bottom ....

Sunday 22 April 2012

COT data of April 17th 2012

British Pounds - Last Tuesday's close was 1.5935, showing some improvement from the previous week, and values have moved up again since then. However, although the total open position rose once more, to 157015 (from 145522), Commercials did not continue their previous more enthusiastic approach. [Spreads were higher, but still not significant, at 592 (from 286)].

The split of open positions showed Commercials reducing their nett long to 8401, from 20094, and they held 62.7% of the total long o/i, down from 64.9% - although the number of contracts rose. More significantly, they increased their shorts considerably, holding 57.3% of the total (up from 51.1%), with the number of contracts up considerably. Nett balance fell to plus 5.4, from plus 13.8.

Large Specs added to longs and reduced shorts, holding 21.2% and 29.6% respectively (nett therefore minus 8.4, from minus 12.9 the previous week). Small Specs acted similarly, taking their percentage of shorts down to a lowish 13.1%, and going long overall.

The changes suggest that the current price improvement may not carry far - Sterling bulls should probably raise their trailing stops.

Monday 16 April 2012

COT data of April 10th 2012

British Pounds - Last Tuesday's close was 1.5860, showing yet again little change from the previous week. The total open position rose a little, to 145522 (from 142660), but Spreads were again minimal, at 286 (from 160).
However, the split of open positions is gradually returning to more normal levels - Commercials increased their nett long to 20094, from 6983, and they held 64.9% of the total long o/i, up from 61.6%. More significantly, they reduced their shorts considerably, holding only 51.1% of the total (down from 56.7%).
Large Specs added to shorts, and now hold 33.4% of the total (from 26.7%), while remaining with a 20.5% share of total longs - this gives them a rather high 27% share of the total o/i.
Small Specs reduced both longs and shorts, and went nett short overall.
The changes suggest that the recent period of sideways movement may be coming to an end, with Sterling bulls seeing some reward.

Monday 9 April 2012

COT data of April 3rd 2012

British Pounds - Tuesday's close, at 1.5910, yet again showed little change from the previous week, and the total open position was again uninspiring, at 142660 (from 135147). Spreads also were almost unchanged at 160 (from 157).
Whatever judgements one might have made previously remain as they were - Commercials have again lessened their enthusiasm (their nett was plus 6983, and they held only 61.6% of the total long o/i, down from 62.1%, with their shorts increasing slightly as a proportion, at 56.7%, from 55.5%).
Large Specs added to longs, and also to shorts (although to a lesser extent), while Small Specs did the same, adding to both longs and shorts - they remained nett long overall, with their share of the total open position remaining comparatively high, at 17.2% ( from 17.4% previously). Commercials hold 59.2%, compared to a 'normal' 64 - 70%, and Large Specs have 23.6%, which remains just slightly more than usual).
As we said last week, perhaps the next set of figures will provide more convincing guidance - meantime, we're not bullish in the medium term.

Monday 26 March 2012

COT data of March 20th 2012

British Pounds - Tuesday's close, at 1.5860, showed some improvement from the previous 1.5700, justifying Commercials' decision to add to longs. The latest figures however are distorted by the close of the March contract, with the total open position way down at 141411 (from 202880). Spreads similarly went down to only 99, from the previous 7246.
In light of these reductions, it seems best to wait for the next set of figures before committing funds - however, one can note that Commercials appear to have lessened their enthusiasm (their nett was plus 20814, and they held only 67.9% of the total long O/I, down from 80.2%, with their shorts around unchanged as a proportion, at 53.2%, from 53.0%).
Large Specs added to longs and reduced shorts, while Small Specs added to longs AND shorts - their share of the total open position is now comparatively high, at 15.4%, compared to a normal 12% or so.
Hopefully the next set of figures will provide more convincing guidance, but for the moment we are not as bullish as we were.

Tuesday 20 March 2012

London Cocoa open interest - March 13th

Commercials reduced longs and maintained their share of shorts, while 'Others' also maintained their share of shorts but added to longs. Nett positions: Commercials plus 6.8 (from plus 12.1), 'Others' minus 5.3 (from minus 10.1), Small Specs minus 1.5 (from minus 2.0). Taken together with Commercials' nett position at +11707 (from +21477), suggests lower prices to come ...

London (Robusta) Coffee open interest - March 13th

The trend established last week has continued - yesterday's figures show Commercials going short, at nett - 5894 from - 17 (and previously long). Their longs were unchanged, but they added to shorts (now holding 61.6% of the total open short position). 'Others' added to longs, and reduced shorts, while Small Specs reduced both longs and shorts, with little net change. 'On balance figures' (which nett out): Commercials minus 10.1 (from square), Others plus 11.8 (from plus 1.5), and Small Specs minus 1.7 (from minus 1.5). Should lead to lower prices in due course ...

Saturday 17 March 2012

COT data of March 13th 2012

British Pounds - Tuesday's close was little changed from previously, at 1.5700, but Large Specs continued to add (slightly) to Shorts, taking their nett position up to minus 21.4, from minus 20.2, with their share of total longs down to 11.2% and total shorts fractionally up, to 32.6%. Small Specs reduced their longs as well as adding to shorts. More significantly, Commercials changed their nett position from plus 23.6 to plus 27.2, with their nett difference going up from +43326 to +53214.
All of this seems to confirm that long Sterling positions could prove profitable ....

Tuesday 13 March 2012

London (Robusta) Coffee open interest - March 6th

Very intriguing figures published yesterday - Commercials (at March 6) were square, with 51.4% of the total longs AND 51.4% of the total shorts - so, having been nett long 13188 contracts the previous week, they're now flat. Small Specs are offset by 'the others', at plus 1.5 versus minus 1.5 - lower prices seem likely.

Sunday 11 March 2012

London (Robusta) Coffee open interest

Will be watching tomorrow's stats with interest - Commercials (based on last week's figures) had reduced their longs considerably , with their nett positions down to +13188 from +18713 the week before, and their nett (based on percantage of the total) down to plus 17.3, from 23.7 previously. If this continues, we should be looking for declining prices ....
(Small specs are slightly long overall at present, but they've been swinging either side of zero for some time now - probably not a major factor, even though they hold over 12% of the total O/I, compared to just over 7% in London Cocoa)
[Note: figures are not published until Monday/s]

COT data of March 6th 2012

British Pounds - With Tuesday's close at 1.5715, Large Specs had gone considerably shorter - after taking their nett shorts down from 21.2 on Feb 14 to 13.2 on Feb 28th, they moved back to 20.2, with their share of total longs down to 12.2% and total shorts up to 22.3%. However (more importantly), Commercials changed their nett position from plus 17.4 to plus 23.6, with their nett difference going up from +30702 to +43326.
This suggests a small but perhaps significant change in attitude - Commercials are liking Sterling more than they did ....