Tuesday 21 August 2012

COT data of August 14th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Yet again remained inside the current range, closing last Tuesday at 1.5675. Total o/i (at 114042) was a little lower, with spreads (at 702, 0.6% of the total) also low.

Nett differences showed Commercials +8763 (from +20011), and Large Specs -288 (from -8275) - as near to square as could be. Small Specs decreased their nett short slightly, at -8475 (from -11736).
 
Proportionally, Commercials reduced their share of the total long position to a recent low of 53.9% (from 62.2%), while their shorts were not much changed, at 46.2% (from 44.6%). Their share of the total o/i was unremarkable, at 50.0% (from 53.4%) - recent figures show them holding between around 47 and 53 percent.
Large Specs increased their share of total longs, with 28.3% (from 22.7% previously). Their shorts were a shade lower, at 28.5% (from 30.0%), with total commitments rising to 28.4% (from 26.4%). 
Small Specs added to longs, and now hold 17.8% (from 15.1%), while their shorts remained almost unchanged at 25.3% (versus 25.4%). Their share of the total is comparatively high, at 21.6%.
In this period, Commercials have reduced longs considerably, while adding slightly to shorts, moving to a nett balance of plus 7.7, which is low. Large Specs are almost square, which is a fair reflection of current market action, and with Small Specs increasing their participation (inside a small total), we have to change our stance to slightly bearish.

Thursday 16 August 2012

O & E [Nikkei] Aug 16, 2012

Note that the Nikkei has closed today well above the Kumo (Cloud), which could be considerably more significant than the early July close at 9104 ....

Saturday 11 August 2012

COT data of August 7th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Remained inside the current range, closing last Tuesday at 1.5625. Total o/i (at 115125) was higher, although still on the low side, while spreads (1661) were also up, taking their share to 1.4% (from 1.0%) - also still on the low side.

Nett differences showed Commercials +20011 (from +12141), and Large Specs -8275 (from -1810) - the change shows up better on the 'proportional' figures (see below). Small Specs increased their nett short slightly, at -11736 (from -10331).
Proportionally, Commercials moved from 56.0% of the total long position to 62.2%, while their shorts were almost unchanged, at 44.6% (from 44.9%). Not surprisingly, their share of the total o/i went up a little, to 53.4% - although this remains unremarkable.

Large Specs reduced their share of total longs just as Commercials increased theirs, with 22.7% (versus 28.5% previously). Their shorts were almost unchanged, at 30.0% (from 30.2%), with total commitments falling to 26.4% (from 29.4%). 

Small Specs were little changed overall; with 15.1% (15.5%) of total longs, 25.4% (24.9%) of total shorts, and an unchanged 20.2% of the overall total. 

With Commercials adding to longs, but no major imbalances showing, we revert to a moderately bullish stance on the Pound. 

Sunday 5 August 2012

COT data of July 31st, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Very similar comments to previous - last Tuesday's close, at 1.5680, continued the see-saw pattern seen since early June - the Pound was up from the previous week, but still remained inside the recent range. 

Total o/i (at 110770) was noticeably lower, but spreads (1128) were barely changed, keeping the proportion of the total at 1.0%.

Nett differences showed Commercials +12141 (from +17392), and Large Specs -1810 (from -2934), with both moving still closer to neutral - again, a possible sign of increased uncertainty. Small Specs reduced their nett short, at -10331 (from -14458).
 
None of the figures, whether the netts or the proportions, give much indication of future direction, with the previously interesting Small Specs adding to longs and reducing their out-of-balance shorts. Their proportion of the total was slightly higher, at 20.2% (previously 19.8%), but their nett proportion was very manageable at minus 9.4 (from minus 12.6) - made up of 15.5% of total Longs and 24.9% of total Shorts.

Commercials reduced Longs considerably, with 56.0% (from 61.0%) of total Longs, and reduced their Shorts, but to a lesser extent (holding 44.9% compared to 45.9%); Large Specs held 28.5% (from 25.5%) and 30.2% (from 28.0%) respectively.



With none of the figures providing particular guidance, we take refuge in a neutral stance for the time being.