Saturday, 28 July 2012

COT data of July 24th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Last Tuesday's close, at 1.5505, continued the see-saw pattern seen since early June - the Pound was down from the previous week, but still remained inside the recent range. 

Total o/i (at 116143) was down, but not by much; spreads however (1119) were up - not much in absolute numbers, but a higher proportion of the total (at 1.0%). An increase normally signifies increasing uncertainty.

Nett differences showed Commercials +17392 (from +21648), and Large Specs -2934 (from -7453), with both moving closer to neutral - again, a possible sign of increased uncertainty. Small Specs however continued to go short, at -14458 (from -14095).
Small Spec figures continue to be the most interesting - their proportion of the total was a little lower, but remained rather high at 19.8% (previously 20.5%), with their share 13.5% (14.5%) of the Longs and a still high 26.1% (26.6%) of the Shorts. 

Commercials held 61.0% (56.3%) of total Longs, but increased their share of total Shorts, holding 45.9% (from 37.8%); Large Specs held 25.5% (from 29.2%) and 28.0% (from 35.6%) respectively.

At first sight, Commercials adding to Shorts more than they added to Longs might suggest a bearish attitude - however, they are able to hold losing positions much longer than the Small Specs can, and it is the latter whose holdings are out of the norm - we shall therefore continue to be slightly bullish on the Pound, although not to any major extent.

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