Sunday, 22 April 2012

COT data of April 17th 2012

British Pounds - Last Tuesday's close was 1.5935, showing some improvement from the previous week, and values have moved up again since then. However, although the total open position rose once more, to 157015 (from 145522), Commercials did not continue their previous more enthusiastic approach. [Spreads were higher, but still not significant, at 592 (from 286)].

The split of open positions showed Commercials reducing their nett long to 8401, from 20094, and they held 62.7% of the total long o/i, down from 64.9% - although the number of contracts rose. More significantly, they increased their shorts considerably, holding 57.3% of the total (up from 51.1%), with the number of contracts up considerably. Nett balance fell to plus 5.4, from plus 13.8.

Large Specs added to longs and reduced shorts, holding 21.2% and 29.6% respectively (nett therefore minus 8.4, from minus 12.9 the previous week). Small Specs acted similarly, taking their percentage of shorts down to a lowish 13.1%, and going long overall.

The changes suggest that the current price improvement may not carry far - Sterling bulls should probably raise their trailing stops.

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