Saturday 27 September 2014

COT data of Sep 23rd 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 134061, spreads 2726 (2.0%).  Closing price Sep 23rd 1.6390 
 

Nett differences:  Commercials  +13234 (from +15775)  Large Specs -1050 (from -6581)  
                              Small Specs -12184 (from -9194)
 
Proportions: 

Commercials (39.0% of total o/i) -
44.1% of Longs (from 42.8%), 34.0% of Shorts (vs 30.8%), balance plus 10.1 (vs plus 12.0)
Large Specs (41.3% of total) - 
40.9% of Longs (from 42.1%), 41.7% of Shorts (vs 47.1%), balance minus 0.8 (vs minus 5.0)
Small Specs (19.7% of total) - 
15.0% of Longs (from 15.1%), 24.3% of Shorts (vs 22.1%), balance minus 9.3 (vs minus 7.0)  
Total open interest changed very little, as did Spreads. Commercials remained nett long, but added noticeably to shorts while increasing their longs only fractionally. Large Specs acted contrariwise, reducing shorts considerably while cutting longs a little. Small Specs may be providing the best lead, holding an unusually large proportion of the total o/i, and going shorter overall. Taking their position (as usual) as a contrarian signal, a further small rise looks probable.

  
[Dollar Index: Proportions - 
Commercials (41.2% of total o/i) - 5.9% of Longs (from 7.3%), 76.5% of Shorts (vs 75.4%), balance minus 70.6 (vs minus 68.1)
Large Specs (51.9% of total) - 83.0% of Longs (from 82.5%), 20.7% of Shorts (vs 23.0%), balance plus 62.3 (vs plus 59.5) 
Small Specs (6.9% of total) - 11.1% of Longs (from 10.2%), 2.8% of Shorts (vs 1.6%), 
balance plus 8.3 (vs plus 8.6) ]

Saturday 20 September 2014

COT data of Sep 16th 2014 - British Pound [BP]









British Pounds - Total o/i 134560, spreads 2561 (1.9%%).  Closing price Sep 16th 1.6275

Nett differences:  Commercials  +15775 (from-17678)  Large Specs -6581 (from +26727)  Small Specs -9194 (from -9049)
 
Proportions: 
Commercials (36.8% of total o/i) -
42.8% of Longs (from 57.6%), 30.8% of Shorts (vs 64.8%), balance plus 12.0 (vs minus 7.2)
Large Specs (44.6% of total) -

42.1% of Longs (from 33.1%), 47.1% of Shorts (vs 22.2%), balance minus 5.0 (vs plus 10.9)

Small Specs (18.6% of total) -

15.1% of Longs (from 9.3%), 22.1% of Shorts (vs 13.0%), balance minus 7.0 (vs minus 3.7) 
 
Total open interest fell very sharply, as did Spreads. Commercials moved to nett long, for the first time in a year, while Large Specs went nett short, reducing longs as well as adding to shorts. Small Specs went further short, and hold an unusually large proportion of the total open position. 

It may take a while for the Pound to digest the result, and the aftermath, of the Scottish referendum, but in the short term a relief rally could be significant.

  
[ Dollar Index: Proportions - Commercials (41.4% of total o/i) -

7.3% of Longs (from 5.9%), 75.4% of Shorts (vs 51.9%), balance minus 68.1 (vs minus 46.0)

Large Specs (52.7% of total) -82.5% of Longs (from 83.1%), 23.0% of Shorts (vs 45.7%), balance plus 59.5 (vs plus 37.4)

Small Specs (5.9% of total) -10.2% of Longs (from 11.0%), 1.6% of Shorts (vs 2.4%), balance plus 8.6 (unchanged). Has the Dollar's uptrend ended?]

Saturday 13 September 2014

COT data of Sep 9th 2014 - British Pound [BP]












British Pounds - Total o/i 256591, spreads [NB] 10734 (4.2%%).  Closing price Sep 9th 1.6105













Nett differences:  Commercials -17678 (from -7550)  Large Specs +26727 (from +9448)  Small Specs -9049 (from -1898)


Proportions: 







Commercials (61.2% of total o/i) -

57.6% of Longs (from 59.8%), 64.8% of Shorts (vs 63.0%), balance minus 7.2 (vs minus 3.2)
Large Specs (27.6% of total) -

33.1% of Longs (from 28.7%), 22.2% of Shorts (vs 24.7%), balance plus 10.9 (vs plus 4.0)

Small Specs (11.2% of total) -

9.3% of Longs (from 11.5%), 13.0% of Shorts (vs 12.3%), balance minus 3.7 (vs minus 0.8) 


Total open interest rose once again, with Commercials adding slightly to longs - but only on an outright basis, not proportionately. They added very considerably to shorts, however, on both bases, although their nett short remained on the low side. Large Specs added to longs as well as reducing shorts, apparently attracted by the fall in Sterling values. Small Specs took the opposite view, reducing longs and adding to shorts - they are now at their shortest since late August 2013. 

This week's Scottish referendum is going to have a massive impact on price moves - the increase in Spreads is not simply caused by the impending switch of trading months. Erratic conditions can be expected to continue ...
  
[ Dollar Index: Proportions - Commercials (28.9% of total o/i) -

5.9% of Longs (from 6.7%), 51.9% of Shorts (vs 50.2%), balance minus 46.0 (vs minus 43.5)

Large Specs (64.4% of total) -83.1% of Longs (from 81.8%), 45.7% of Shorts (vs 47.7%), balance plus 37.4 (vs plus 34.1)

Small Specs (6.7% of total) -11.0% of Longs (from 11.5%), 2.4% of Shorts (vs 2.1%), balance plus 8.6 (vs plus 9.4) ]

Saturday 6 September 2014

COT data of Sep 2nd 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 238973, spreads 3816 (1.6%).  Closing price Sep 2nd 1.6470


Nett differences:  Commercials -7550 (from -17413)  Large Specs +9448 (from +15467)  Small Specs -1898 (from +1946)

Proportions:    

Commercials (61.4% of total o/i) -

59.8% of Longs (from 56.8%), 63.0% of Shorts (vs 64.4%), balance minus 3.2 (vs minus 7.6)

Large Specs (26.7% of total) -

28.7% of Longs (from 31.0%), 24.7% of Shorts (vs 24.3%), balance plus 4.0 (vs plus 6.7)

Small Specs (11.9% of total) -

11.5% of Longs (from 12.2%), 12.3% of Shorts (vs 11.3%), balance minus 0.8 (vs plus 0.9) 

Total open interest rose, to the highest in 6 weeks, with Commercials adding to longs (on both views, outright and proportionate), and reducing shorts (proportionately). Large Specs reduced longs considerably, while adding noticeably to outright shorts, although they left them almost unchanged on a proportionate basis. Small Specs moved from nett long to nett short. A change of trend appears to be nearer at hand than it was. 
 
[ Dollar Index:  Proportions -   
Commercials (28.4% of total o/i) -
6.7% of Longs (from 6.4%), 50.2% of Shorts (vs 48.6%), balance minus 43.5 (vs minus 42.2)

Large Specs (64.8% of total) -
81.8% of Longs (from 82.5%), 47.7% of Shorts (vs 49.7%), balance plus 34.1 (vs plus 32.8)

Small Specs (6.8% of total) -
11.5% of Longs (from 11.1%), 2.1% of Shorts (vs 1.7%), balance plus 9.4 (unchanged)