Saturday, 13 October 2012

COT data of Oct 9th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Values fell by last Tuesday' close to around 1.6000, although they have bounced slightly since then (Friday night's close 1.6070). Total o/i was lower, at 161,457, with spreads a little higher but still very low, at only 306.

Nett differences: 
Commercials -41892 from -56136.  Large Specs +22572, from +30094.  Small Specs +19320, from +26042. Nothing very remarkable here.
Commercials (56.2% of total o/i) - 43.2% of Longs, 69.2% of Shorts, balance minus 26.0
Large Specs (26.6% of total) - 33.6% of Longs, 19.6% of Shorts, balance plus 14.0
Small Specs (17.2% of total) - 23.2% of Longs, 11.2% of Shorts, balance plus 12.0
Commercials made little change to their longs, but in a reduced total, their proportion increased. They reduced their shorts considerably, suggesting that they do not believe strongly in much lower values at this time.

Large Specs reduced their longs, presumably taking some profits, and although they reduced their total shorts, that proportion remained roughly unchanged.  Small Specs behaved in much the same manner, but their proportion of shorts increased; if one takes a contrarian view, one might expect slightly higher prices from here, and there seems nothing in the other positions to gainsay this view - based on these rather neutral figures, we look for Sterling to remain steady and featureless for the time being.

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