Sunday 24 June 2012

COT data of June 19th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Tuesday's close was higher again, at 1.5725, but further advances may prove more difficult.


Total o/i (and the split of holdings) were influenced by the expiry of the June position, with the total down from 178648 to 121624. Commercials now hold only 47.3% of the total o/i (down from 63.9%), and Large Specs hold 33.9% (up from 22.5%). Small Specs have 18.8% of the total (from 13.6%), a comparatively high proportion - price moves therefore could be sharper than normal.


Spreads were down, but were still 1.1% of the total.

Commercial longs still comprised the largest holding, at 59.4% of the sharply reduced total, with their shorts at 35.1%.  Their Nett however moved up to plus 24.3, from plus 21.8. This is again the highest figure for some time, and it will be interesting to see whether they maintain this proportion once total o/i starts to rise again. Large Specs moved up to 26.8% of total Longs (from 15.9%), and to 41.1% of total Shorts (from 29.0%) - but their Nett moved only from minus 13.1 to minus 14.3. Small Specs also showed little overall change in their Nett, at minus 10.0 (from minus 8.7), holding 13.8% of total Longs (from 9.3%), but 23.8% of total Shorts (from 18.0%). This remains on the high side, still suggesting there are sizeable shorts in weak hands.
Nett differences remained unexciting, with Commercials plus 29210 (from plus 38353), Large Specs minus 17153 (from minus 23112), and Small Specs minus 12057 (from minus 15241). It's the proportions of the total that are interesting ...


We remain - rather more cautiously - on the bull side of the Pound.

Sunday 17 June 2012

COT data of June 12th 2012


British Pounds - Tuesday's close was higher, at 1.5570, and values have continued to advance slightly since then. The figures suggest that this trend should continue.
Total o/i was down a little, but not to any remarkable extent, while spreads were almost unchanged, still at 1.4% of the total. 
Commercials once again raised their share of total Longs, to 74.8% (from 69.5%), and again reduced their share of Shorts, to 53.0% from 59.0%. Nett therefore moved to plus 21.8, from plus 10.5. This is the highest figure for some time (mid-March, in fact). Large Specs moved to 15.9% of total Longs (from 21.5%), and - significantly - to 29.0% of total Shorts (from 23.1%) - their nett moved from minus 1.6 to minus 13.1. Small Specs showed little overall change on the week, with 9.3% of total Longs (from 9.0%), and 18.0% of total Shorts (from 17.9%) - their nett therefore moved from minus 8.9 to minus 8.7. This is still on the high side, suggesting sizeable shorts are still in weak hands.
Nett differences continued to move in the same direction as previously, with Commercials plus 38353 (from plus 19090), Large Specs minus 23112 (from minus 2867), but Small Specs barely changed, at minus 15241 (from minus 16223).

We remain on the bull side of the Pound.

Sunday 10 June 2012

COT data of June 5th 2012.

British Pounds - Tuesday's close was lower again, and in distinctly oversold territory. Prices since then have increased a shade, but COT figures suggest there's more of that to come. Commercials continue to move from short to long.

Total o/i was up a little, but remained unremarkable, at 184583. Spreads however rose, from 0.5% of the total to 1.4%, suggesting some indecision.

Commercials again raised their share of total Longs, to 69.5% (from 66.5%), and reduced their share of Shorts significantly, to 59.0% from 68.3%. Nett therefore moved to plus 10.5, from minus 1.8. Large Specs moved to 21.5% of total Longs (from 20.0%), and - more importantly - to 23.1% of total Shorts (from 19.2%) - their nett moved from plus 0.8 to minus 1.6. Small Specs went down to only 9.0% of total Longs (from 13.5%), but their total Shorts went up to 17.9% (from 12.5%).

Nett differences showed reversals in all categories: Commercials plus 19090, from minus 3344, Large Specs minus 2867, from plus 1475, and Small Specs minus 16223, from plus 1869. This last may prove especially significant, since Small Specs are viewed as a contrary indicator because they are so often wrong.

So we continue to expect a change of trend, from bearish to bullish - but the timing remains open.


Sunday 3 June 2012

COT data of May 29th 2012

British Pounds - Tuesday's close was lower again, but our suggestion that "the downtrend may be ending" was somewhat previous. Nevertheless, the figures continue to show that Commercials are moving from noticeably short to almost square.

Total o/i was down again, at 181435, with the proportion of spreads around unchanged, at 0.5% of the total.

Commercials again raised their share of total Longs, to 66.5% (from 63.3%), and reduced their share of Shorts to 68.3% (from 72.1%). Nett therefore was minus 1.8 (from minus 8.8), continuing the recent trend. Large Specs moved to 20.0% of total Longs (from 22.3%), and to 19.2% of total Shorts (from 16.1%) - so their nett moved from plus 6.2 to plus 0.8. Small Specs went down to 13.5% of total Longs (from 14.4%), while their total Shorts went up to 12.5% (from 11.8%).

Nett differences were once again all sharply reduced - Commercials minus 3344 (from minus 16179), Large Specs plus 1475 (from plus 11340), and Small Specs plus 1869 (from plus 4839).

 With this background, we continue to watch carefully for the next technical trigger that will turn the market round.