Saturday 25 October 2014

COT data of Oct 21st 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 135766, spreads 2604 (1.9%).  Closing price Oct 21st 1.6115
 
Nett differences:  Commercials  +16808 (from +15351)  Large Specs -4485 (from -2837)  
                              Small Specs -12323 (from -12514)
 
Proportions:
Commercials (53.2% of total o/i) -
59.5% of Longs (from 54.6%), 46.9% of Shorts (vs 43.3%), balance plus 12.6 (vs plus 11.3)
Large Specs (29.1% of total) - 
27.4% of Longs (from 31.7%), 30.8% of Shorts (vs 33.8%), balance minus 3.4 (vs minus 2.1)
Small Specs (17.7% of total) - 
13.1% of Longs (from 13.7%), 22.3% of Shorts (vs 22.9%), balance minus 9.2 (unchanged) 
 
  Commercials have added to both longs and shorts, reverting to their normal majority share of total open interest; on balance, they have moved slightly longer - in fact, to the greatest extent for some months. Large Specs, on the other hand, have reduced all positions, but remain short overall. Small Specs remain quite short, suggesting higher prices if anything.
 
Dollar Index: Total o/i 80315, spreads 2048 (2.5%). Closing price Oct 21st 85.40
  
Nett differences:  Commercials -58885 (from -58564)  Large Specs +50226 (from +48966)  
                              Small Specs +8659 (from +9598)
Proportions - 
Commercials (44.5% of total o/i) - 6.8% of Longs (from 8.3%), 82.1% of Shorts (vs 73.4%), balance minus 75.3 (vs minus 65.1)
Large Specs (47.9% of total) - 80.0% of Longs (from 79.3%), 15.8% of Shorts (vs 24.9%), balance plus 64.2 (vs plus 54.4) 
Small Specs (7.6% of total) - 13.2% of Longs (from 12.4%), 2.1% of Shorts (vs 1.7%), balance plus 11.1 (vs plus 10.7) 

  Total open interest is sharply lower, with Commercials (proportionately) reducing longs and adding to shorts - suggesting lower values to come.

Saturday 18 October 2014

COT data of Oct 14th 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 138471, spreads 2706 (2.0%).  Closing price Oct 14th 1.5900
 
Nett differences:  Commercials  +15351 (from +10876)  Large Specs -2837 (from -1075)  
                              Small Specs -12514 (from -9801)
 
Proportions:
Commercials (48.9% of total o/i) -
54.6% of Longs (from 48.4%), 43.3% of Shorts (vs 39.8%), balance plus 11.3 (vs plus 8.6)
Large Specs (32.8% of total) - 
31.7% of Longs (from 36.6%), 33.8% of Shorts (vs 37.4%), balance minus 2.1 (vs minus 0.8)
Small Specs (18.3% of total) - 
13.7% of Longs (from 15.0%), 22.9% of Shorts (vs 22.8%), balance minus 9.2 (vs minus 7.7) 
 
 
 
Dollar Index: Total o/i 92018, spreads 2055 (2.2%). Closing price Oct 14th 85.92

 
Nett differences:  Commercials -58564 (from -59540)  Large Specs +48966 (from +49677)  

                              Small Specs +9598 (from +9863)
 
Proportions - 
Commercials (40.8% of total o/i) - 8.3% of Longs (from 7.5%), 73.4% of Shorts (vs 72.1%), balance minus 65.1 (vs minus 64.6)
Large Specs (52.1% of total) - 79.3% of Longs (from 79.9%), 24.9% of Shorts (vs 26.0%), balance plus 54.4 (vs plus 53.9) 
Small Specs (7.1% of total) - 12.4% of Longs (from 12.6%), 1.7% of Shorts (vs 1.9%), balance plus 10.7 (vs plus 10.7)  

COT data of Oct 7th 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 129666, spreads 2513 (1.9%).  Closing price Oct 7th 1.6100
 
Nett differences:  Commercials  +10876 (from +3170)  Large Specs -1075 (from +3589)  
                              Small Specs -9801 (from -6759)
 
Proportions:

Commercials (44.1% of total o/i) -

48.4% of Longs (from 42.1%), 39.8% of Shorts (vs 39.7%), balance plus 8.6 (vs plus 2.4)


Large Specs (37.0% of total) - 

36.6% of Longs (from 41.8%), 37.4% of Shorts (vs 39.0%), balance minu 0.8 (vs plus 2.8)


Small Specs (18.9% of total) - 

15.0% of Longs (from 16.1%), 22.8% of Shorts (vs 21.3%), balance minus 7.7 (vs minus 5.2) 
[Dollar Index: Total o/i 94286, spreads 2074 (2.2%). Closing price Oct 7th 85.77

 
Nett differences:  Commercials  -59540 (from -65038)  Large Specs +49677 (from +56395)  Small Specs +9863 (from +8643)
 
Proportions - 
Commercials (39.8% of total o/i) - 7.5% of Longs (from 5.6%), 72.1% of Shorts (vs 75.1%), balance minus 64.6 (vs minus 69.5)

Large Specs (53.0% of total) - 79.9% of Longs (from 82.7%), 26.0% of Shorts (vs 22.5%), balance plus 53.9 (vs plus 60.2) 

Small Specs (7.2% of total) - 12.6% of Longs (from 11.7%), 1.9% of Shorts (vs 2.4%), balance plus 10.7 (vs plus 9.3) ] 

Saturday 4 October 2014

COT data of Sep 30th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 132369, spreads 2476 (1.9%).  Closing price Sep 30th 1.6210
 
Nett differences:  Commercials  +3170 (from +13234)  Large Specs +3589 (from -1050)  
                              Small Specs -6759 (from -12184)
 
Proportions: 

Commercials (40.9% of total o/i) -
42.1% of Longs (from 44.1%), 39.7% of Shorts (vs 34.0%), balance plus 2.4 (vs plus 10.1)
Large Specs (40.4% of total) - 
41.8% of Longs (from 40.9%), 39.0% of Shorts (vs 41.7%), balance plus 2.8 (vs minus 0.8)
Small Specs (18.7% of total) - 
16.1% of Longs (from 15.0%), 21.3% of Shorts (vs 24.3%), balance minus 5.2 (vs minus 9.3)  
 
Total open interest slipped a little, with Commercials cutting longs and adding to shorts, but remaining (just) nett long overall. Large Specs added slightly to longs, while cutting shorts. Small Specs took profits on shorts, and added slightly to longs - but overall remained short. With little major change on a historically low total open interest, no significant signals are evident.

  
[Dollar Index: Proportions - 
Commercials (40.3% of total o/i) - 5.6% of Longs (from 5.9%), 75.1% of Shorts (vs 76.5%), balance minus 69.5 (vs minus 70.6)
Large Specs (52.6% of total) - 82.7% of Longs (from 83.0%), 22.5% of Shorts (vs 20.7%), balance plus 60.2 (vs plus 62.3) 
Small Specs (7.1% of total) - 11.7% of Longs (from 11.1%), 2.4% of Shorts (vs 2.8%), balance plus 9.3 (vs plus 8.3) ]