Sunday, 24 June 2012

COT data of June 19th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Tuesday's close was higher again, at 1.5725, but further advances may prove more difficult.

Total o/i (and the split of holdings) were influenced by the expiry of the June position, with the total down from 178648 to 121624. Commercials now hold only 47.3% of the total o/i (down from 63.9%), and Large Specs hold 33.9% (up from 22.5%). Small Specs have 18.8% of the total (from 13.6%), a comparatively high proportion - price moves therefore could be sharper than normal.

Spreads were down, but were still 1.1% of the total.

Commercial longs still comprised the largest holding, at 59.4% of the sharply reduced total, with their shorts at 35.1%.  Their Nett however moved up to plus 24.3, from plus 21.8. This is again the highest figure for some time, and it will be interesting to see whether they maintain this proportion once total o/i starts to rise again. Large Specs moved up to 26.8% of total Longs (from 15.9%), and to 41.1% of total Shorts (from 29.0%) - but their Nett moved only from minus 13.1 to minus 14.3. Small Specs also showed little overall change in their Nett, at minus 10.0 (from minus 8.7), holding 13.8% of total Longs (from 9.3%), but 23.8% of total Shorts (from 18.0%). This remains on the high side, still suggesting there are sizeable shorts in weak hands.
Nett differences remained unexciting, with Commercials plus 29210 (from plus 38353), Large Specs minus 17153 (from minus 23112), and Small Specs minus 12057 (from minus 15241). It's the proportions of the total that are interesting ...

We remain - rather more cautiously - on the bull side of the Pound.

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