Tuesday 28 December 2010

Isn't modern science wonderful !

"Baby joy for Sir Elton John and David Furnish
Celebrity friends offer congratulations
after little boy born on Christmas Day"
[News Headline on AOL]

Friday 29 October 2010

Strong View

Looks like the US market may have topped - nasdaq had a text-book Hanging Man, and Russell 2000 a big Bearish Engulfing day - NAS has been leading the rally, and few people seem to watch the Russell.

@ Nov 9th - just goes to show - if the market won't do what it's 'supposed' to, it'll most likely do the opposite - in spades .....

Tuesday 31 August 2010

British Pound COT at August 24th

Open interest numbers, both total and excluding spreads, were lower again, with spreads showing a tiny increase (at 0.2% of the total).
Commercials maintained their short positions, but added to longs, remaining nett long (plus 2.5, from plus 1.0, and after minus 3.2 two weeks ago).
Big specs were unchanged at nett short 3.1, reducing both longs and shorts by fair amounts. Small specs reduced longs and added to shorts, with their nett position close to square.
Overall nett positions were: commercials long 2.5 (from long 1.0), big specs short 3.1 (unchanged), small specs long 0.6 (from long 2.1).
No signs of excess in these figures, but suggestions of slightly steadier conditions.

Gold COT (Commitment of Traders) at Aug 24th

Total open interest was slightly higher, at 556,464 (from 543,674), with the proportion of spreads a little lower at 11.7% of the total (versus 12.3%) - not indicative of anything particular.
The major nett positions increased once again, with commercials now short 53.8 and big specs long 45.0, but small specs were nett long only 8.8 (from 9.5) - none of these are out of the ordinary.

Percent figures (after excluding estimated spreads) were:
Market long positions - Commercials 35.1% (from 36.1%), Big Specs 52.2% (from 50.5%), Small Specs 12.7% (from 13.4%)
Market short position - Commercials 88.9% (from 88.5%), Big Specs 7.1% (from 7.7%), Small Specs 3.9% (from 3.8%)

Commercials continued to add to shorts, with longs around unchanged, still suggesting that prices will move higher only sluggishly.

Saturday 21 August 2010

Gold COT (Commitment of Traders) at Aug 17th

Total open interest rose again, to 543,674 from 523,078, with the proportion of spreads remaining unchanged, at 12.3% of the total.
All the nett positions increased once again, with commercials now short 52.3%, big specs long 42.8%, and small specs long 9.5% - none of these are out of the ordinary.

Percent figures (after excluding estimated spreads) were:
Market long positions - Commercials 36.1% (from 38.0%), Big Specs 50.5% (from 49.0%), Small Specs 13.4% (from 13.0%)
Market short position - Commercials 88.5% (from 88.4%), Big Specs 7.7% (from 7.4%), Small Specs 3.8% (from 4.2%)

Commercials cutting longs (slightly) and adding to shorts (considerably) still suggests prices will move higher with difficulty.

British Pound COT at August 17th

Total open interest went up slightly, with spreads showing a tiny increase (at 0.1% of the total).
Commercials reduced their short positions considerably, while increasing their longs a fraction. After last week's unusual move to a nett short position, they reverted to their usual nett long - although only just so, at plus 1.0% (vs minus 3.2%).
Big specs returned to their normal nett short, both reducing longs and adding to shorts, while small specs did the opposite. Nett positions were: big specs short 3.1% (from long 3.5%), small specs long 2.1% (from short 0.3%).
Not a great deal of change, but overall suggesting falls from here should only be moderate.

Saturday 14 August 2010

Notes re COT - August 10th 2010

Noticeable changes include -
Soybean Oil - commercials added aggressively to shorts = bearish
Euro - all three classes were close to square
Copper - commercials were adding to shorts = not bullish
Wheat (Chicago) - commercials went nett short = bearish
(KC) - commercials remained strongly nett short

British Pound COT at August 10th

Commercials added to their short positions while their longs remained unchanged, taking their share of total shorts up to 61.3%, compared to 57.9% last week and only 39.6% four weeks ago. This made them nett short overall - the first time this has happened for over 12 months.
Big specs went nett long, mainly by adding to longs but also by (moderately) reducing shorts. Small Specs also added to longs and reduced shorts, going almost square as a result. Spreads (only 63 out of a total open position of 142,227) were minimal.
It seems Sterling is fully priced.

Gold COT (Commitment of Traders) at Aug 10th

Total open interest rose to 523,078 from 518,643, with spreads increasing again (now 12.4% of the total), suggesting increasing indecision. This meant that the total nett position was actually lower, at 458,203, against last week's 459,101. All the nett positions increased, with commercials now -50.4%, big specs long 41.6%, and small specs long 8.8% - none of these are out of the ordinary.

Percent figures (after excluding estimated spreads) were:
Market long positions - Commercials 38.0% (from 39.2%), Big Specs 49.0% (from 48.5%), Small Specs 13.0% (from 12.3%)
Market short position - Commercials 88.4% (from 87.6%), Big Specs 7.4% (from 8.1%), Small Specs 4.2% (from 4.3%)

Overall, Commercials cutting longs and adding to shorts suggests difficulty with higher prices from here.

Sunday 30 May 2010

British Pound COT at May 28th

Commercials added massively to their long positions, taking their share of total longs up to 84.1% (from 73.0% last week), while Small Specs liquidated longs (going to 8.6% of the total, from 20.1% last week). Large Specs barely changed their positions - it seems Sterling could be in for a rally.

Wednesday 3 February 2010

VOLTE-FACE

Amazing! but not so surprising ...

It seems that Burton Malkiel, the EMH enthusiast who wrote "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" (and who hated and despised active management), will be running a Hedge Fund focused on China - or so say reports from the US. Another nail in the Efficient Market Hypothesis coffin.