Sunday, 10 June 2012

COT data of June 5th 2012.

British Pounds - Tuesday's close was lower again, and in distinctly oversold territory. Prices since then have increased a shade, but COT figures suggest there's more of that to come. Commercials continue to move from short to long.

Total o/i was up a little, but remained unremarkable, at 184583. Spreads however rose, from 0.5% of the total to 1.4%, suggesting some indecision.

Commercials again raised their share of total Longs, to 69.5% (from 66.5%), and reduced their share of Shorts significantly, to 59.0% from 68.3%. Nett therefore moved to plus 10.5, from minus 1.8. Large Specs moved to 21.5% of total Longs (from 20.0%), and - more importantly - to 23.1% of total Shorts (from 19.2%) - their nett moved from plus 0.8 to minus 1.6. Small Specs went down to only 9.0% of total Longs (from 13.5%), but their total Shorts went up to 17.9% (from 12.5%).

Nett differences showed reversals in all categories: Commercials plus 19090, from minus 3344, Large Specs minus 2867, from plus 1475, and Small Specs minus 16223, from plus 1869. This last may prove especially significant, since Small Specs are viewed as a contrary indicator because they are so often wrong.

So we continue to expect a change of trend, from bearish to bullish - but the timing remains open.

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