Tuesday, 15 February 2011

More thoughts (not very different)

(All figures basis Feb 8th)
Gold total open interest is starting to rise again, albeit only slightly. Spreads are still low - around 4.7% of the total O/I, against a normal 10 - 13%. Commercials continue to reduce longs, but are now adding to shorts. Small Spec positions are barely changed - indeed, their nett is the same as last week at 9.6 positive. As usual, Big Specs are following the trend, adding to longs and reducing shorts in a rising market. Overall not very exciting.
Mini S&P nett positions have swung back towards normal - Commercials plus 1.7 (from minus 2.5), Big Specs minus 0.1 (from plus 2.2), Small Specs minus 1.6 (from plus 1.3). Biggest changes are: Commercials adding to longs, and Small Specs reducing longs and adding to shorts - should be bullish in due course. Big Specs added noticeably to shorts.
BP continued in the same direction as previously - Commercials adding disproportionately to nett shorts, Big Specs adding to nett longs, and Small Specs generally reducing commitments, but staying nett long.
Euros also remained on course - nett: Commercials minus 23.9 (from minus 22.2), Big Specs plus 17.3 (from plus 19.1), and Small Specs plus 6.6 (from plus 3.1).
On both, should ultimately bring Dollar strength.

Wednesday, 9 February 2011

COT thoughts

(All figures basis Feb 1st)
Gold total open interest is well down - but much of that is due to liquidation of a major Spread position, said to be based on differential changes rather than on market direction. Spreads are now around 5% of the total O/I, against 14% in early Jan. Commercials are reducing longs more than shorts, whereas Small Specs are holding longs but sharply reducing shorts - both proportionately slightly bearish.
Mini S&P nett positions show major changes - Commercials moving to sizeable nett short, Big Specs going longer than previously, and Small Specs back to near square (from nett short). Should be bearish if anything.
BP and Euros show Commercials adding to nett shorts, Big Specs adding to nett longs, and small specs retaining a small nett long position. Should ultimately bring Dollar strength.