Sunday 28 July 2013

COT data of July 23rd 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  148065; spreads 2591 (= 1.8%). 

Nett differences:
Commercials +66356 (from +60256).  Large Specs -49653 (from -37446).  Small Specs -16703 (from -22810).

Proportions:  
Commercials (52.1% of total o/i) - 74.9% of Longs, 29.3% of Shorts, balance plus 45.6
Large Specs (30.2% of total) - 13.2% of Longs, 47.3% of Shorts, balance minus 34.1
Small Specs (17.7% of total) - 11.9% of Longs, 23.4% of Shorts, balance minus 11.5
 
Prices at last Tuesday's close were higher again, at around 1.5370 (and have fluctuated around that level since then). Commercials stayed with their long positions, but reduced shorts, moving longer overall both on nett and proportional figures. Small Specs added to longs and reduced shorts, but not excessively, leaving their positions moderate in every sense. With no excesses showing, these figures suggest the Pound should remain steady, but unexcitingly so.

Sunday 21 July 2013

COT data of July 16th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  151127; spreads 3869 (= 2.6%).   

Nett differences:
Commercials +60256 (from +55108).  Large Specs -37446 (from -34259).  Small Specs -22810 (from -20849).

Proportions:  
Commercials (52.9% of total o/i) - 73.4% of Longs, 32.5% of Shorts, balance plus 40.9
Large Specs (29.4% of total) - 16.7% of Longs, 42.1% of Shorts, balance minus 25.4
Small Specs (17.7% of total) - 9.9% of Longs, 25.4% of Shorts, balance minus 15.5
 
Prices had improved by last Tuesday's close to around 1.5160, and have improved further since then. Once again, position moves of the previous week continued, with Commercials adding considerably to their longs, but this time adding to shorts as well. Even taking this into account, on balance they moved longer. Small Specs reduced their longs while maintaining shorts. We can only repeat last week's comment: these figures continue to
suggest further improvement by the Pound against the Dollar.

Saturday 13 July 2013

COT data of July 9th 2013 - British Pound [BP]


British Pounds - Total o/i  145033; spreads 3074 (= 2.1%). 

Nett differences:
Commercials +55108 (from +46553).  Large Specs -34259 (from -31324).  Small Specs -20849 (from -15229).

Proportions:  
Commercials (46.6% of total o/i) - 66.0% of Longs, 27.2% of Shorts, balance plus 38.8
Large Specs (34.1% of total) - 22.1% of Longs, 46.2% of Shorts, balance minus 24.1
Small Specs (19.3% of total) - 11.9% of Longs, 26.6% of Shorts, balance minus 14.7
 
Prices at last Tuesday's close (when these positions were noted) were low, at around 1.4865. Since then, the Pound has improved to nearer 1.52 before falling back towards 1.51. Position moves of the previous week have continued, with Commercials adding considerably to their longs (although they also added [less] to shorts); on balance, they moved longer. Small Specs added to shorts. These figures continue to
suggest further improvement by the Pound against the Dollar. 

Wednesday 10 July 2013

COT data of July 2nd 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  131817; spreads 2674 (= 2.0%). Total o/i is picking up, but still on the low side.

Nett differences:

Commercials +46553 (from +21781).  Large Specs -31324 (from -19429).  Small Specs -15229 (from -2352).

Proportions:  
Commercials (43.6% of total o/i) - 61.7% of Longs, 25.6% of Shorts, balance plus 36.1
Large Specs (37.4% of total) - 25.2% of Longs, 49.5% of Shorts, balance minus 24.3
Small Specs (19.0% of total) - 13.1% of Longs, 24.9% of Shorts, balance minus 11.8
 
Prices have continued to fall, but - in spite of what seem to be very good reasons for this to continue - Commercials have started to add to longs and reduce shorts. Small Specs (our contrarian indicator) have done the reverse. Based on these figures, the one-way trend is not as clear cut as previously, and  
we would not over-commit on the short side.