COT data of Dec 23rd 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 141455, spreads 2773 (2.0%).  Closing price Dec 23rd 1.5520

  Nett differences:  Commercials  +31582 (from +27092)  Large Specs -15233 (from -14552)
                              Small Specs -16349 (from -12540)   

  Proportions:

 Commercials (50.5% of total o/i) - 

  61.9% of Longs (from 59.6%), 39.1% of Shorts (vs 39.6%), balance plus 22.8 (vs plus 20.0)

 Large Specs (31.9% of total) - 

  26.4% of Longs (from 28.0%), 37.4% of Shorts (vs 38.7%), balance minus 11.0 (vs minus 10.7)   

  Small Specs (17.6% of total) - 

  11.7% of Longs (from 12.4%), 23.5% of Shorts (vs 21.7%), balance minus 11.8 (vs minus 9.3) 
 

No dramatic changes, proportionately - Commercials added to longs and reduced shorts, Large Specs reduced both (going slightly shorter on balance), and Small Specs reduced longs and added to shorts. Conclusion (incorporating holiday conditions): quietly steady.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 94321, spreads 1268 (1.3%). Closing price Dec 23rd 90.36

Nett differences:  Commercials -61327 (from -46299)  Large Specs +47932 (from +31964)
                              Small Specs +13395 (from +14335)

Proportions -

Commercials (42.6% of total o/i) - 9.6% of Longs (from 10.4%), 75.5% of Shorts (vs 64.2%), balance minus 65.9 (vs minus 53.8)

Large Specs (49.0% of total) - 74.7% of Longs (from 71.6%), 23.2% of Shorts (vs 34.5%), balance plus 51.5 (vs plus 37.1) 

 Small Specs (8.4% of total) - 15.7% of Longs (from 18.0%), 1.3% of Shorts (vs 1.3%), balance plus 
 14.4 (vs plus 16.7)

Head to head battle building between Large Specs (Long) and Commercials (Short) ... Last time this happened (late Oct), the Large Specs came out on top ...

COT data of Dec 23rd 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

APOLOGIES - correction re the next release date - 
CFTC will not be publishing next COT figures until Tuesday Dec 30th (due to the Christmas holiday),
so figures and comments will be unavailable until Wednesday ...

COT data of Dec 16th 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 137581, spreads 2263 (1.6%).  Closing price Dec 16th 1.5750

  Nett differences:  Commercials  +27092 (from +38450)  Large Specs -14552 (from -23602)
                              Small Specs -12540 (from -14848)   Proportions:

 Commercials (49.6% of total o/i) - 

  59.6% of Longs (from 69.2%), 39.6% of Shorts (vs 47.8%), balance plus 20.0 (vs plus 21.4)

 Large Specs (33.3% of total) - 

  28.0% of Longs (from 21.0%), 38.7% of Shorts (vs 34.1%), balance minus 10.7 (vs minus 13.1)   

  Small Specs (17.1% of total) - 

  12.4% of Longs (from 9.8%), 21.7% of Shorts (vs 18.1%), balance minus 9.3 (vs minus 8.3) 
 

Both the total open position and spreads were reduced considerably. Commercials again cut back their nett longs, while Large Specs became less short. Small Specs appear somewhat over-commited  on the long side - any rise in prices seems likely to be limited in scope.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 87377, spreads 1320 (1.5%). Closing price Dec 16th 88.30

Nett differences:  Commercials -46299 (from -49821)  Large Specs +31964 (from +36406)
                              Small Specs +14335 (from +13415)

Proportions -

Commercials (37.3% of total o/i) - 10.4% of Longs (from 9.7%), 64.2% of Shorts (vs 64.6%), balance minus 53.8 (vs minus 54.9)

Large Specs (53.1% of total) - 71.6% of Longs (from 74.2%), 34.5% of Shorts (vs 34.1%), balance plus 37.1 (vs plus 40.1) 

 Small Specs (9.6% of total) - 18.0% of Longs (from 16.1%), 1.3% of Shorts (vs 1.3%), balance plus 
 16.7 (vs plus 14.8)

Only noticeable change is in Small Specs, who went longer - not normally a bullish sign ...

COT data of Dec 9th 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 192104, spreads 12696 (6.6%).  Closing price Dec 9th 1.5670

  Nett differences:  Commercials  +38450 (from +49426)  Large Specs -23602 (from -31014)
                              Small Specs -14848 (from -18412)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (58.5% of total o/i) - 

 69.2% of Longs (from 68.3%), 47.8% of Shorts (vs 38.9%), balance plus 21.4 (vs plus 29.4)

 Large Specs (27.6% of total) - 

  21.0% of Longs (from 23.0%), 34.1% of Shorts (vs 41.4%), balance minus 13.1 (vs minus 18.4)   Small Specs (13.9% of total) - 

 9.8% of Longs (from 8.7%), 18.1% of Shorts (vs 19.7%), balance minus 8.3 (vs minus 11.0) 
Commercials seem to be giving up on their previous bullish view - although they once again added to longs, they added far more to shorts, bringing their nett long position down considerably. Small Specs again reduced their total involvement, becoming less short overall, but this (together with the big increase in speads) may simply be a result of the current switch of trading position, from Dec to March. Nett changes still suggest there may be slightly more room on the upside than the down. 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 94289, spreads 3520 (3.7%). Closing price Dec 9th 88.72

Nett differences:  Commercials -49821 (from -49049)  Large Specs +36406 (from +36155)
                              Small Specs +13415 (from +12894)

Proportions -

Commercials (37.1% of total o/i) - 9.7% of Longs (from 9.5%), 64.6% of Shorts (vs 61.6%), balance minus 54.9 (vs minus 52.1)

Large Specs (54.2% of total) - 74.2% of Longs (from 75.3%), 34.1% of Shorts (vs 36.9%), balance plus 40.1 (vs plus 38.4) 

 Small Specs (8.7% of total) - 16.1% of Longs (from 15.2%), 1.3% of Shorts (vs 1.5%), balance plus 
 14.8 (vs plus 13.7)

Commercials added to shorts, Small Specs added to longs - not normally signs of a strong advance in the short term ...

COT data of Dec 2nd 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 174875, spreads 7037 (4.0%).  Closing price Dec 2nd 1.5635

 
Nett differences:  Commercials  +49426 (from +47825)  Large Specs -31014 (from -30666)
                              Small Specs -18412 (from -17159)
 
Proportions:

Commercials (53.6% of total o/i) -

68.3% of Longs (from 66.0%), 38.9% of Shorts (vs 37.3%), balance plus 29.4 (vs plus 28.7)

Large Specs (32.2% of total) - 

 23.0% of Longs (from 23.1%), 41.4% of Shorts (vs 41.5%), balance minus 18.4 (vs minus 18.4)

Small Specs (14.2% of total) - 

8.7% of Longs (from 10.9%), 19.7% of Shorts (vs 21.2%), balance minus 11.0 (vs minus 10.5) 

Commercials once again added to longs, but this time also added to shorts; overall, they became slightly more long, both proportionately and outright. Small Specs reduced their involvement altogether, while staying quite short overall - this, together with the increase in speads, may simply be a result of the impending switch of trading position, from Dec to March. Nett changes still suggest there may be more room on the upsiade than the downside. 

 
Dollar Index: Total o/i 97454, spreads 3378 (3.5%). Closing price Nov Dec 2nd 88.64

Nett differences:  Commercials -49049 (from -50500)  Large Specs +36155 (from +38467)
                              Small Specs +12894 (from +12033)

Proportions - 

Commercials (35.6% of total o/i) - 9.5% of Longs (from 8.9%), 61.6% of Shorts (vs 61.5%), balance minus 52.1 (vs minus 52.6)

Large Specs (56.1% of total) - 75.3% of Longs (from 74.9%), 36.9% of Shorts (vs 34.8%), balance plus 38.4 (vs plus 40.1) 

 Small Specs (8.3% of total) - 15.2% of Longs (from 16.2%), 1.5% of Shorts (vs 3.7%), balance plus 
 13.7 (vs plus 12.5) 

 Total open interest remains high, guidance from the breakdown of positions held remains lacking 
 (although there won't be much more short-covering to come from the Small Specs - on both a nett 
 and a proportionate basis, they're longer than they have been for some time ... )

COT data of Nov 25th 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 171730, spreads 4886 (2.8%).  Closing price Nov 25th 1.5710

 
Nett differences:  Commercials  +47825 (from +36573)  Large Specs -30666 (from -22829) 
                              Small Specs -17159 (from -13744)
 Proportions:

Commercials (51.6% of total o/i) -

66.0% of Longs (from 61.0%), 37.3% of Shorts (vs 38.5%), balance plus 28.7 (vs plus 22.5)

Large Specs (32.3% of total) - 

23.1% of Longs (from 26.4%), 41.5% of Shorts (vs 40.4%), balance minus 18.4 (vs minus 14.0)

Small Specs (16.1% of total) - 

10.9% of Longs (from 12.6%), 21.2% of Shorts (vs 21.1%), balance minus 10.3 (vs minus 8.5) 

Commercials added to longs considerably, and reduced shorts a little, becoming noticeably nett long both outright and proportionately. Small Specs on the other hand went further short - it might be time to move stoplosses on any short positions closer to the market .... 

 

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 98005, spreads 2096 (2.1%). Closing price Nov 25th 87.97

  

Nett differences:  Commercials -50500 (from -50739)  Large Specs +38467 (from +39356) 
                              Small Specs +12033 (from +11383)

Proportions - 

Commercials (35.2% of total o/i) - 8.9% of Longs (from 9.4%), 61.5% of Shorts (vs 66.5%), balance minus 52.6 (vs minus 57.1)

Large Specs (54.9% of total) - 74.9% of Longs (from 76.4%), 34.8% of Shorts (vs 32.1%), balance plus 40.1 (vs plus 44.3) 

Small Specs (9.9% of total) - 16.2% of Longs (from 14.2%), 3.7% of Shorts (vs 1.4%), balance plus 12.5 (vs plus 12.8) 

In spite of the highest total open interest for some time, not much guidance at present from the breakdown of positions held. 

COT data of Nov 25th 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

CFTC will not be publishing COT figures until Monday (due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday),
so figures and comments will be unavailable until Tuesday or Wednesday ...

COT data of Nov 18th 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 166966, spreads 4448 (2.7%).  Closing price Nov 18th 1.5630

 
Nett differences:  Commercials  +36573 (from +23677)  Large Specs -22829 (from -12891)  
                              Small Specs -13744 (from -10786)
 Proportions:

Commercials (49.7% of total o/i) -

61.0% of Longs (from 59.2%), 38.5% of Shorts (vs 43.1%), balance plus 22.5 (vs plus 16.1)

Large Specs (33.4% of total) - 

26.4% of Longs (from 27.7%), 40.4% of Shorts (vs 36.5%), balance minus 14.0 (vs minus 8.8)

Small Specs (16.9% of total) - 

12.6% of Longs (from 13.1%), 21.1% of Shorts (vs 20.4%), balance minus 8.5 (vs minus 7.3) 

 

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 90731, spreads 1941 (2.1%). Closing price Nov 18th 87.63

  

Nett differences:  Commercials -50739 (from -53095)  Large Specs +39356 (from +41625)  
                              Small Specs +11383 (from +11470)

Proportions - 

Commercials (37.9% of total o/i) - 9.4% of Longs (from 6.7%), 66.5% of Shorts (vs 63.6%), balance minus 57.1 (vs minus 56.9)

Large Specs (54.3% of total) - 76.4% of Longs (from 75.5%), 32.1% of Shorts (vs 30.9%), balance plus 44.3 (vs plus 44.6) 

Small Specs (7.8% of total) - 14.2% of Longs (from 17.8%), 1.4% of Shorts (vs 5.5%), balance plus 12.8 (vs plus 12.3) 

COT data of Nov 11th 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 151660, spreads 4681 (3.1%).  Closing price Nov 11th 1.5810
 
Nett differences:  Commercials  +23677 (from +19005)  Large Specs -12891 (from -7462)  
                              Small Specs -10786 (from -11543)
 Proportions:

Commercials (51.1% of total o/i) -

59.2% of Longs (from 57.0%), 43.1% of Shorts (vs 43.4%), balance plus 16.1 (vs plus 13.6)

Large Specs (32.1% of total) - 

27.7% of Longs (from 31.0%), 36.5% of Shorts (vs 36.3%), balance minus 8.8 (vs minus 5.3)

Small Specs (16.8% of total) - 

13.1% of Longs (from 12.0%), 20.4% of Shorts (vs 20.3%), balance minus 7.3 (vs minus 8.3) 

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 95206, spreads 1902 (2.0%). Closing price Nov 11th 87.61

  

Nett differences:  Commercials -53095 (from -54445)  Large Specs +41625 (from +42765)  
                              Small Specs +11470 (from +11680)

Proportions - 

Commercials (35.1% of total o/i) - 6.7% of Longs (from 5.0%), 75.5% of Shorts (vs 80.7%), balance minus 56.9 (vs minus 60.4)

Large Specs (53.2% of total) - 75.5% of Longs (from 80.7%), 30.9% of Shorts (vs 33.3%), balance plus 44.6 (vs plus 47.4) 

Small Specs (11.7% of total) - 17.8% of Longs (from 14.3%), 5.5% of Shorts (vs 1.3%), balance plus 12.3 (vs plus 13.0) 

COT data of Nov 11th & 18th 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

 ... comments will not be posted until after Nov 25th ....

COT data of Nov 4th 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 144215, spreads 4594 (3.2%).  Closing price Nov 4th 1.6000
 
Nett differences:  Commercials  +19005 (from +113879)  Large Specs -7462 (from -6247)  
                              Small Specs -11543 (from -7632)
 Proportions:

Commercials (50.2% of total o/i) -

57.0% of Longs (from 55.8%), 43.4% of Shorts (vs 45.6%), balance plus 13.6 (vs plus 10.2)

Large Specs (33.7% of total) - 

31.0% of Longs (from 29.9%), 36.3% of Shorts (vs 34.5%), balance minus 5.3 (vs minus 4.6)

Small Specs (16.1% of total) - 

12.0% of Longs (from 14.3%), 20.3% of Shorts (vs 19.9%), balance minus 8.3 (vs minus 5.6) 

 

Spreads are up, which often means a lessening of firm views. Total o/i is also higher.   

Commercials have added to longs and reduced shorts, while (just) holding on to their normal majority share of total open interest; on balance, they have moved significantly longer. Large Specs have added to both longs and shorts, but remain short overall. Small Specs have gone shorter, still suggesting that downside scope may be limited.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 92157, spreads 1970 (2.1%). Closing price Nov 4th 87.04

  

Nett differences:  Commercials -54445 (from -59136)  Large Specs +42765 (from +50306)  
                              Small Specs +11680 (from +8830)

Proportions - 

Commercials (35.2% of total o/i) - 5.0% of Longs (from 5.6%), 80.7% of Shorts (vs 81.1%), balance minus 60.4 (vs minus 76.7)

Large Specs (57.0% of total) - 80.7% of Longs (from 81.1%), 33.3% of Shorts (vs 15.9%), balance plus 47.4 (vs plus 65.2) 

Small Specs (7.8% of total) - 14.3% of Longs (from 13.3%), 1.3% of Shorts (vs 1.8%), balance plus 13.0 (vs plus 11.5) 

Total open interest is sharply higher. Commercials have cut their shorts, and added slightly to longs, while Large Specs have added to both longs and (particularly) shorts, with their nett long much reduced. Time for consolidation? 

COT data of Oct 28th 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 138661, spreads 2664 (1.9%).  Closing price Oct 28th 1.6130
 
Nett differences:  Commercials  +13879 (from +16808)  Large Specs -6247 (from -4485)
                              Small Specs -7632 (from -12323)
 Proportions:

Commercials (50.7% of total o/i) -

55.8% of Longs (from 59.5%), 45.6% of Shorts (vs 46.9%), balance plus 10.2 (vs plus 12.6)

Large Specs (32.2% of total) - 

29.9% of Longs (from 27.4%), 34.5% of Shorts (vs 30.8%), balance minus 4.6 (vs minus 3.4)

Small Specs (17.1% of total) - 

14.3% of Longs (from 13.1%), 19.9% of Shorts (vs 22.3%), balance minus 5.6 (vs minus 9.2) 

 

  Commercials have reduced both longs and shorts, retaining (just) their normal majority share of total open interest; on balance, they have moved slightly less long. Large Specs have increased all positions, going shorter overall. Small Specs added to longs and reduced shorts; much higher prices now seem less likely.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 79369, spreads 2261 (2.8%). Closing price Oct 28th 85.42

  

Nett differences:  Commercials -58885 (from -58564)  Large Specs +50226 (from +48966)
                              Small Specs +8659 (from +9598)

Proportions - 

Commercials (43.9% of total o/i) - 5.6% of Longs (from 6.8%), 82.3% of Shorts (vs 82.1%), balance minus 76.7 (vs minus 75.3)

Large Specs (48.5% of total) - 81.1% of Longs (from 80.0%), 15.9% of Shorts (vs 15.8%), balance plus 65.2 (vs plus 64.2) 

Small Specs (7.6% of total) - 13.3% of Longs (from 13.2%), 1.8% of Shorts (vs 2.1%), balance plus 11.5 (vs plus 11.1) 

  Total open interest is lower again, with Commercials (proportionately) once more reducing longs and adding to shorts - still suggesting lower values to come, even though none of this week's changes look significant.

COT data of Oct 21st 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 135766, spreads 2604 (1.9%).  Closing price Oct 21st 1.6115
 
Nett differences:  Commercials  +16808 (from +15351)  Large Specs -4485 (from -2837)  
                              Small Specs -12323 (from -12514)
 Proportions:

Commercials (53.2% of total o/i) -

59.5% of Longs (from 54.6%), 46.9% of Shorts (vs 43.3%), balance plus 12.6 (vs plus 11.3)

Large Specs (29.1% of total) - 

27.4% of Longs (from 31.7%), 30.8% of Shorts (vs 33.8%), balance minus 3.4 (vs minus 2.1)

Small Specs (17.7% of total) - 

13.1% of Longs (from 13.7%), 22.3% of Shorts (vs 22.9%), balance minus 9.2 (unchanged) 

 

  Commercials have added to both longs and shorts, reverting to their normal majority share of total open interest; on balance, they have moved slightly longer - in fact, to the greatest extent for some months. Large Specs, on the other hand, have reduced all positions, but remain short overall. Small Specs remain quite short, suggesting higher prices if anything.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 80315, spreads 2048 (2.5%). Closing price Oct 21st 85.40

  

Nett differences:  Commercials -58885 (from -58564)  Large Specs +50226 (from +48966)  
                              Small Specs +8659 (from +9598)

Proportions - 

Commercials (44.5% of total o/i) - 6.8% of Longs (from 8.3%), 82.1% of Shorts (vs 73.4%), balance minus 75.3 (vs minus 65.1)

Large Specs (47.9% of total) - 80.0% of Longs (from 79.3%), 15.8% of Shorts (vs 24.9%), balance plus 64.2 (vs plus 54.4) 

Small Specs (7.6% of total) - 13.2% of Longs (from 12.4%), 2.1% of Shorts (vs 1.7%), balance plus 11.1 (vs plus 10.7) 

  Total open interest is sharply lower, with Commercials (proportionately) reducing longs and adding to shorts - suggesting lower values to come.