Saturday 28 July 2012

COT data of July 24th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Last Tuesday's close, at 1.5505, continued the see-saw pattern seen since early June - the Pound was down from the previous week, but still remained inside the recent range. 

Total o/i (at 116143) was down, but not by much; spreads however (1119) were up - not much in absolute numbers, but a higher proportion of the total (at 1.0%). An increase normally signifies increasing uncertainty.

Nett differences showed Commercials +17392 (from +21648), and Large Specs -2934 (from -7453), with both moving closer to neutral - again, a possible sign of increased uncertainty. Small Specs however continued to go short, at -14458 (from -14095).
Small Spec figures continue to be the most interesting - their proportion of the total was a little lower, but remained rather high at 19.8% (previously 20.5%), with their share 13.5% (14.5%) of the Longs and a still high 26.1% (26.6%) of the Shorts. 

Commercials held 61.0% (56.3%) of total Longs, but increased their share of total Shorts, holding 45.9% (from 37.8%); Large Specs held 25.5% (from 29.2%) and 28.0% (from 35.6%) respectively.

At first sight, Commercials adding to Shorts more than they added to Longs might suggest a bearish attitude - however, they are able to hold losing positions much longer than the Small Specs can, and it is the latter whose holdings are out of the norm - we shall therefore continue to be slightly bullish on the Pound, although not to any major extent.

Tuesday 24 July 2012

COT data of July 17th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Last Tuesday's close, at 1.5655, was up on the week, but still remained inside the recent range. 

Total o/i (116976) was down, but not by much, and spreads (875) were amost unchanged. Nett differences also showed very little change - Commercials +21548 (from +21648), Large Specs -7453 (from -7622), and Small Specs -14095 (from -14026.
 
Small Spec figures are still potentially the most interesting - their proportion of the total remained high, at 20.5% (previously 21.3%), with 14.5% (15.3%) of the Longs and a still high 26.6% (27.3%) of the Shorts. 

Commercials hold 56.3% (56.6%) of total Longs, and only 37.8% (38.0%) of total Shorts, while Large Specs hold 29.2% (28.1%) and 35.6% (34.6%) respectively.

Once again, the figures provide very little new guidance - Commercials have barely changed their attitude over the week. Only the short position held by Small Specs provides a hint that we should remain slightly bullish on the Pound, although not to any major extent.

Monday 16 July 2012

COT data of July 10th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Last Tuesday's close, at 1.5520, was lower on the week, but remained inside the recent range - as have prices since then ...

Total o/i (117616) was higher, but not remarkably so, and spreads (880) were also up. Nett differences increased as opinions (on both sides) hardened, but they were still not excessive - Commercials +21648 (from  +13394), Large Specs -7622 (from -5353), and Small Specs -14026 (from -10976).
Small Spec figures remain the most interesting - their proportion of the total was up again, although only slightly, at 21.3%, with 15.3% of the Longs and a high 27.3% of the Shorts. 

Commercials still hold a comparatively low 56.6% of total Longs, and only 38.0% of total Shorts, while Large Specs hold 28.1% and 34.6% respectively. These figures provide little new guidance, but we note that
Commercials are now adding to Longs while still reducing Shorts - taken in conjunction with the short position held by Small Specs, we'll go back to being slightly bullish on the Pound, although not to any major extent.

Tuesday 10 July 2012

COT data of July 3rd, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Last Tuesday's close, at 1.5690, showed little change, although prices have fallen slightly since then.

Total o/i (108208) was down again, with spreads (557) also down. Nett differences on the other hand were slightly higher, but still routine - Commercials +16329 (from +13394), and Large Specs -5353 (from -758), with Small Specs showing a small decrease to -10976 (from -12636).
 
Our figures for Small Specs at the last posting were wrong - proportional holdings should have shown them with 19.8% of the total o/i, not 25.3% - the split however was correct, at 14.2% of total Longs, and 25.3% of total Shorts. The latest figures show their proportion of the total up again, to 20.6% - very high - with 15.5% of the Longs and 25.7% of the Shorts. 

With both Commercials and Large Specs reducing their interest in the market, the figures suggest little major change in prices can be expected. Commercials hold 54.6% of total Longs, and 39.4% of total Shorts, and Large Specs 29.9% and 34.9% respectively. Nothing very surprising there.
With Commercials slightly reducing Longs, and more noticeably reducing Shorts, we are moving to a neutral stance for the time being. 

Monday 2 July 2012

COT data of June 26th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Last Tuesday's close, at 1.5640, was lower, and further advances have proved difficult.

Total o/i (114561) was down to quite low levels - spreads (946) likewise, and netts were down in line - Commercials +13394 (from +29210), and Large Specs -758 (from -17153), with Small Specs showing an increase at -12636 (from -12057).
 
This Small Spec position was borne out by the proportional holdings, which showed them with 25.3% of the total o/i (14.2% of total longs, and 25.3% of total shorts). This overweight position would lead one to expect a rush of short-covering if prices started to move up - but perhaps we've already seen this after the EU news last Friday.  

The other figures showed participants moving closer to neutral - Commercials held 48.8% of the total o/i (54.7% of the Longs, 42.9% of the Shorts = nett plus 11.8), Large Specs had 31.4 of the total (31.1% of Longs, 31.8% of Shorts = nett minus 0.7). 

With Commercials reducing Longs (they held 74.8% of the total just 2 weeks ago) as well as adding to Shorts, we are no longer bullish of the Pound - although remaining nervous about the large Small Spec short position.