Saturday 21 September 2013

COT data of Sep 17th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  141735; spreads 2811 (= 2.0%). Closing price on Sep 17th: 1.5905
The switch of trading months did indeed affect Spread numbers - they have reverted to more normal levels.  

Nett differences:
Commercials -2655 (from +36534)  Large Specs -6310 (from -38166).  Small Specs +8965 (from +1632)
 
Proportions:  
Commercials (43.7% of total o/i) - 42.8% of Longs, 44.7% of Shorts, balance minus 2655
Large Specs (34.0% of total) - 31.8% of Longs, 36.3% of Shorts, balance minus 4.5
Small Specs (22.3% of total) - 25.4% of Longs, 19.0% of Shorts, balance plus 6.4 
 
These figures reflect the position last Tuesday ev ening, before the Fed surprised markets by leaving QE at unchanged levels, and much alteration has probably taken place since then. However, based on these figures, it is notable that Commercials had reduced their longs massively, in addition to cutting shorts, while Small Specs added to longs and reduced shorts. With Small Specs holding over 22% of the total open position, choppy trading was to be expected. Our medium term attitude remains - Commercials have been taking advantage of higher prices to sell, and Small Specs are unduly long.

Saturday 14 September 2013

COT data of Sep 10th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  185433; spreads 8899 (= 4.8%). Closing price on Sep 10th: 1.5735 
The switch of trading months probably affected Spread numbers - they should settle down shortly. 

Nett differences:
Commercials +36534 (from +47998)  Large Specs -38166 (from -43046).  Small Specs +1632 (from -4952)
 
Proportions:  
Commercials (53.5% of total o/i) - 63.8% of Longs, 43.1% of Shorts, balance plus 20.7
Large Specs (29.4% of total) - 18.7% of Longs, 40.3% of Shorts, balance minus 21.6
Small Specs (17.1% of total) - 17.5% of Longs, 16.6% of Shorts, balance plus 0.9 
 
Prices broke up from the recent range, and have continued higher since then. Commercials added to longs, but much more to shorts, as shown quite distinctly in the 'proportion' figures. They also increased their share of the total o/i once again. Small Specs increased longs considerably, but basically left shorts alone. This had the effect of moving them to nett long - not usually a constructive sign. As with Gold recently, Commercials have been taking advantage of higher prices to sell - and we can see what happened to Gold prices. 

Saturday 7 September 2013

COT data of Sep 3rd 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  156870; spreads 3928 (= 2.5%). Closing price on Sep 3rd: 1.5560

Nett differences:
Commercials +47998 (from +43762)  Large Specs -43046 (from -38226).  Small Specs -4952 (from -5536).
 
Proportions:  
Commercials (50.9% of total o/i) - 66.6% of Longs, 35.2% of Shorts, balance plus 31.4
Large Specs (32.3% of total) - 18.3% of Longs, 46.4% of Shorts, balance minus 28.1
Small Specs (16.8% of total) - 15.1% of Longs, 18.4% of Shorts, balance minus 3.3
 
Prices have generally remained inside the recent range of 1.55 to 1.57. Commercials added to longs and to shorts, increasing their share of the total o/i, but not changing their proportions much. Small Specs reduced both longs and shorts, again with not much change to proprtionate holdings. There is thus no significant change to suggest which direction the ultimate beakout will take, although Commercials remain less long than they might be.