Sunday, 25 November 2012

COT data of Nov 13th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

With publication of the latest figures by the CFTC delayed by the Thanksgiving holiday, now seems a good time to catch up with events over the last month.

After values dropped somewhat (as expected), they have started to pick up again, and this should continue - depending on confirmation from the latest figures when they come out Monday night.

Total open interest was down, at 149173, and nett differences were lower - latest show Commercials -19431 (from -31150),  Large Specs +8228 (from +19279), and Small Specs +11203 (from +11871). 
Commercials (53.7% of total o/i) - 47.2% of Longs, 60.3% of Shorts, balance minus 13.1
Large Specs (28.1% of total) - 30.9% of Longs, 25.3% of Shorts, balance plus 5.6
Small Specs (18.2% of total) - 21.9% of Longs, 14.4% of Shorts, balance plus 7.5
Commercials have been adding to longs and reducing shorts, while Large Specs have done the reverse. Small Specs have not made major changes, but on balance remain somewhat overcommitted to the long side. In spite of that, we generally follow the lead of the Commercials, and therefore tend to the bull side.

But we'll wait for Monday night before drawing any further conclusions.

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