Saturday 25 May 2013

COT data of May 21st 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  211098, from 198068; spreads 2548 - around 1.2% of the total. As we have said previously, a large number of open spreads suggests indecision, while a low number (such as this) suggests definite commitment.

Nett differences:
Commercials +103998 (from +85169).  Large Specs -76976 (from -65355).  Small Specs -27022 (from -19814).

Proportions:  
Commercials (51.5% of total o/i) - 76.4% of Longs, 26.6% of Shorts, balance plus 49.8
Large Specs (34.5% of total) - 16.0% of Longs, 52.9% of Shorts, balance minus 36.9
Small Specs (14.0% of total) - 7.6% of Longs, 20.5% of Shorts, balance minus 12.9

Last week we suggested that it might be best to wait until more commitment was shown by either Commercials or Small Specs - or both. This week we have that commitment - Commercials (the class we like to follow) have gone longer, both outright and proportionately, while Small Specs (the class we like to shade) have gone shorter. Large Specs are with the current trend, cutting longs and (slightly) adding to shorts as the market eases. Based on these figures, it seems likely that Sterling will strengthen against the Dollar.

Tuesday 21 May 2013

COT data of May 14th 2013 - British Pound [BP]


British Pounds - Total o/i  198068, spreads 3025 - around 1.5% of the total.

Nett differences:

Commercials +85169 (from +85429).  Large Specs -65355 (from -63086).  Small Specs -19814 (from -22343).

Proportions:  
Commercials (49.8% of total o/i) - 71.6% of Longs, 28.0% of Shorts, balance plus 43.6
Large Specs (35.7% of total) - 19.0% of Longs, 52.5% of Shorts, balance minus 33.5
Small Specs (14.5% of total) - 9.4% of Longs, 19.5% of Shorts, balance minus 10.1

With few extremes showing, the most significant change seems to be the increased share of total o/i held by the Large Specs - as this is the position that we find least helpful to follow, it might be best to wait until more commitment is shown by either Commercials or Small Specs - or both.

COT data of May 7th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  1907871, spreads 2703 - around 1.4% of the total.


Nett differences:
Commercials +85429 (from +73632).  Large Specs -63086 (from -58607).  Small Specs -22343 (from -15025).
Proportions:  
Commercials (50.9% of total o/i) - 73.6% of Longs, 28.2% of Shorts, balance plus 45.4 (from plus 39.6)
Large Specs (33.5% of total) - 16.8% of Longs, 50.3% of Shorts, balance minus 33.5
Small Specs (15.6% of total) - 9.6% of Longs, 21.5% of Shorts, balance minus 11.9

Most of the previous week's big changes were cancelled out, as participants moved back to more 'normal' holdings.

COT data of April 30th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  189084, spreads 3252 - around 1.7% of the total.
Nett differences:
Commercials +73632 (from +88913).  Large Specs -58607 (from -60112).  Small Specs -15025 (from -28801 - big change!).
Proportions:  
Commercials (52.2% of total o/i) - 72.1% of Longs, 32.5% of Shorts, balance plus 39.6 (from plus 45.1)
Large Specs (32.5% of total) - 16.7% of Longs, 48.2% of Shorts, balance minus 31.5
Small Specs (15.3% of total) - 11.2% of Longs, 19.3% of Shorts, balance minus 8.1 (from minus 14.6)

In retrospect, it looks like Small Specs covered their shorts at or near the top of the market, while Commercials tok advantage of the rise to take profits on their longs.

Thursday 2 May 2013

COT data of April 23rd 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  199465, spreads 2487 - around 1.2% of the total.

Nett differences:
Commercials +88913 (from +86801).  Large Specs -60112 (from -61975).  Small Specs -28801 (from -24826).

Proportions:  
Commercials (52.7% of total o/i) - 75.3% of Longs, 30.2% of Shorts, balance plus 45.1
Large Specs (32.5% of total) - 17.3% of Longs, 47.8% of Shorts, balance minus 30.5
Small Specs (14.8% of total) - 7.4% of Longs, 22.0% of Shorts, balance minus 14.6

Commercials had started to reduce their longs, but have not continued. Large Specs have moved slightly to a less negative position. Small Specs have been reducing longs and adding to shorts, although not to a significant degree. We had been prepared to become less positive, but based on these latest figures have decided to remain moderately bullish.

COT data of April 16th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  200884, spreads 2758 - around 1.4% of the total.

Nett differences:
Commercials +86801 (from +95230).  Large Specs -61975 (from -69969).  Small Specs -24826 (from -25261).

Proportions:  
Commercials (53.0% of total o/i) - 74.9% of Longs, 31.1% of Shorts, balance plus 43.8
Large Specs (32.8% of total) - 17.2% of Longs, 48.5% of Shorts, balance minus 31.3
Small Specs (14.2% of total) - 7.9% of Longs, 20.4% of Shorts, balance minus 12.5

COT data of April 9th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  204827, spreads 2953 - around 1.4% of the total.

Nett differences:
Commercials +95230 (from +97863).  Large Specs -69969 (from -65020).  Small Specs -25261 (from -32843).
Proportions:  
Commercials (54.9% of total o/i) - 78.5% of Longs, 31.3% of Shorts, balance plus 47.2
Large Specs (30.8% of total) - 13.4% of Longs, 48.1% of Shorts, balance minus 34.7
Small Specs (14.3% of total) - 8.1% of Longs, 20.6% of Shorts, balance minus 12.5