Sunday 31 March 2013

COT data of March 26th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - With values moving sideways for 10 days or so, and with a long holiday weekend in prospect, it was not surprising to see very little change in commitments in the latest figures. Total o/i was up a shade, at 214636, while spreads were little changed at 2802 - 1.3% of the total.

Nett differences:
Commercials +95441 (from +93602).  Large Specs -66555 (from -61480).  Small Specs -28886 (from -32122). Commercials added marginally to longs and shorts, Large Specs reduced longs and added (once again) to shorts, and Small Specs did the reverse, adding slightly to longs while reducing their shorts.
 
Proportions:  
Commercials (52.3% of total o/i) - 74.8% of Longs, 29.8% of Shorts, balance plus 45.0
Large Specs (33.7% of total) - 18.0% of Longs, 49.4% of Shorts, balance minus 31.4
Small Specs (14.0% of total) - 7.2% of Longs, 20.8% of Shorts, balance minus 13.6

The nett balance of Commercials moved higher again, at plus 45.0 (a very high figure), while Large Specs took up the slack left as Small Specs reduced their involvement. Although the numbers are different, there appear to be similarities in behaviour with the action starting first half June 2012, when - after considerable churning - prices ultimately moved higher. We remain on the side of the Commercials.

Saturday 23 March 2013

COT data of March 19th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i was down as the March position comes off the board, at 212517, still well up from this time 3 months ago. Spreads were much lower, at 2626 - 1.2% of the total.

Nett differences:
Commercials +93602 (from +82484).  Large Specs -61480 (from -49800).  Small Specs -32122 (from -32684). Commercials reduced their positions sharply, but cut shorts more than longs. Large Specs added to positions, particularly shorts, and Small Specs reduced theirs, while increasing their share of the total o/i.
 
Prices have in general moved higher since the figures were struck, with the latest price around 1.5230 after a low of 1.5025 and a high of 1.5250.
Proportions:  
Commercials (52.2% of total o/i) - 74.5% of Longs, 29.9% of Shorts, balance plus 44.6
Large Specs (33.2% of total) - 18.6% of Longs, 47.9% of Shorts, balance minus 29.3
Small Specs (14.6% of total) - 6.9% of Longs, 22.2% of Shorts, balance minus 15.3
The nett balance of Commercials moved to a very high level, at plus 44.6, while Large Specs moved strongly in the other direction, at minus 29.3. The market is now quite finely balanced, with both sides firmly committed, Commercials (long) versus Specs (short) - as usual, we are on the side of the Commercials.

Saturday 16 March 2013

COT data of March 12th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i was up considerably, at 297130, with spreads also much higher, at 18032 (which, if correct, is the highest for well over a year, at 6.1% of the total). A high number of spreads tends to indicate indecision, which in this case could mean a change of trend.

Nett differences:
Commercials +82484 (from +81548).  Large Specs -49800 (from -43849).  Small Specs -32684 (from -37699). Commercials again added to their longs on both measures (outright and proportionately), but added more to their shorts, also on both measures. Large Specs reduced both their longs and their shorts, with their share of the total market noticeably lower, while Small Specs took profits on their shorts but made little change to their longs.
 
NB Price last Tuesday night was 1.4905, after a low for the move at 1.4830; since then we've seen a rally to around 1.5175, with Friday's close at 1.5115. On that basis, positions could have been altered considerably since the COT figures were struck. 

Proportions:  
Commercials (67.9% of total o/i) - 82.7% of Longs, 53.1% of Shorts, balance plus 29.6
Large Specs (19.2% of total) - 10.3% of Longs, 28.2% of Shorts, balance minus 17.9
Small Specs (12.9% of total) - 7.0% of Longs, 18.7% of Shorts, balance minus 11.7

Although the Commercials' nett balance has come down to plus 29.6 (from plus 35.2), they still hold the whip hand, with a very large proportion of existing longs. On the other hand, both Large and Small Specs have taken profits on their shorts, suggesting they may not panic unduly if prices start to rally. They still remain quite short overall, however, and we would hesitate to join them at current levels.  

Saturday 9 March 2013

COT data of March 5th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i was up again, at 236181, with spreads also higher, at 4660 (2.0% of the total).
Nett differences:
Commercials +81548 (from +65696).  Large Specs -43849 (from -36130).  Small Specs -37699 (from -29566). Commercials added to their longs on both measures (outright and proportionately), but only added to their shorts on an outright basis. Large Specs made little change to their longs, but added to shorts (reflecting the downtrend in prices), while Small Specs reduced their longs and added to shorts (marginally).
 
Proportions:  
Commercials (59.7% of total o/i) - 77.3% of Longs, 42.1% of Shorts, balance plus 35.2 
Large Specs (25.0% of total) - 15.6% of Longs, 34.5% of Shorts, balance minus 18.9
Small Specs (15.3% of total) - 7.1% of Longs, 23.4% of Shorts, balance minus 16.3
Once again, statistically there seems no cause to change attitude - comments made last week remain valid, with activity continuing in much the same way. One change possibly worth noting is the increase in Spreads - higher figures tend to denote doubt - but the more important numbers show no significant change. It is hard to see why the Commercials are so committed to the long side, but the fact remains that they are ...

We would follow the next major bullish chart signal (although that might not be immediate).