Sunday, 27 May 2012

COT data of May 22nd 2012

British Pounds - Tuesday's close: was lower, but it looks like the downtrend may be ending.

Total o/i was down, at 184497, with spreads up, at 0.5% of the total - suggesting slightly increased indecision. 

Commercials raised their share of total Longs considerably, to 63.3% (from 51.5%), and reduced their share of Shorts to 72.1% (from 75.0%). Nett therefore was minus 8.8, a marked change from the previous 23.5 . Large Specs moved to 22.3% of total Longs (from 28.9%), and to 16.1% of total Shorts (from 16.3%) - small changes, but moving the nett to plus 6.2, from plus 12.6.  If the market starts to move higher, they may hurry to get long again. Small Specs went down to 14.4% of total Longs (from 19.6%), but their total Shorts went up to 11.8% (from 8.7%). Nett differences were all sharply reduced - Commercials minus 16179 (from minus 46722), Large Specs plus 11340 (from plus 25021), and Small Specs plus 4839 (from plus 21701).

Overall, a change in trend looks due some time fairly soon.

Sunday, 20 May 2012

COT data of May 15th 2012

British Pounds - Tuesday's close at 1.5995 was down a little from the previous week, but not really enough to make money - and it looks like the forthcoming period will be much the same. Changes in holdings were minimal, although overall the direction looks unaltered.

Commercials raised their share of total Longs to 51.5% (from 49.1%), but also increased their Shorts to 75.0% (from 73.4%). Nett therefore was minus 23.5, only a marginal change from the previous minus 24.3. Similarly, Large Specs moved to 28.9% of total Longs (from 29.9%), and to 16.3% of total Shorts (from 17.2%). Small Specs held 19.6% of total Longs (from 21.0%), and 8.7% of total Shorts (from 9.4%). Netts were plus 12.6 (from plus 12.7), and plus 10.9 (from plus 11.6) respectively - nothing very significant there ...

So we'll remain somewhat bearish on the Pound, but not very excited about it ...

Wednesday, 16 May 2012

COT data of May 8th 2012

British Pounds - The close on Tuesday of last week was 1.6160, with prices pausing after some improvement from our last posting. Prices since then have tended to ease, in line with our expectations, and we feel this tendency will probably continue.

Latest figures show Commercials raising their share of an increasing Total Open Interest, at 61.2%, compared to a reduced 23.6% for Large Specs and a not-much-changed 15.2% for Small Specs. Nett positions show Commercials at minus 24.3 (from plus 13.8 on April 10th), Large Specs at plus 23.6 (compared to minus 12.9), and Small Specs at plus 11.6 (versus minus 0.9). Split down, the figures show Commercials hold 49.1% of total Longs, Large Specs have 29.9%, and Small Specs have 21.0%. On the Short side, Commercials now hold 73.4% (a high number), Large Specs 17.2% (low), and Small Specs 9.4% (comparatively low).

The significant changes show Large Specs have added to Longs and reduced their Shorts, while Commercials have added to Shorts - bearish ....

Monday, 14 May 2012

COT data of May 8th 2012

British Pounds - More detailed report to follow, but it's interesting to see that Commercials continue to short the Pound at an increasing rate, while both Large and Small Specs add to longs - we'd rather be on the short side!