Saturday 25 April 2015

CFTC COT data of Apr 21st 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]



British Pounds - Total o/i 175066, spreads 1293 (0.7%).  Closing price Apr 21st 1.4925


  Nett differences:  Commercials  +47497 (from +57723)  Large Specs -29281 (from -36045)
                              Small Specs -18216 (from -21678)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (58.1% of total o/i) - 
  71.8% of Longs (from 73.2%), 44.4% of Shorts (vs 42.3%), balance plus 27.4 (vs plus 30.9)
 Large Specs (28.5% of total) - 
   20.0% of Longs (from 18.2%), 36.9% of Shorts (vs 37.5%), balance minus 16.9 (vs minus 19.3) 


  Small Specs (13.4% of total) - 

  8.2% of Longs (from 8.6%), 18.7% of Shorts (vs 20.2%), balance minus 10.5 (vs minus 11.6)

 Total o/i fell, with reductions in all categories. Commercials (who have a big share of the open interest at present) reduced longs more than shorts, showing less confidence in stronger prices from here, whereas Large Specs cut their shorts on the rally and added slightly to longs. Small Specs continue to play a minor role, and the impending General Election seems to remain an inhibiting influence.


Dollar Index: Total o/i 115918, spreads 2570 (2.2%). Closing price Apr 21st 98.21
 


Nett differences:  Commercials -88374 (from -90485)  Large Specs +71721 (from +76407)
                              Small Specs +16653 (from +14078)
Proportions -


 Commercials (46.6% of total o/i) - 7.6% of Longs (from 8.4%), 85.6% of Shorts (vs 85.8%), balance minus 78.0 (vs minus 77.4)


 Large Specs (44.2% of total) - 75.8% of Longs (from 77.4%), 12.5% of Shorts (vs 12.0%), balance plus 63.3 (vs plus 65.4) 
  Small Specs (9.2% of total) - 16.6% of Longs (from 14.2%), 1.9% of Shorts (vs 2.2%), balance plus 14.7

 (vs plus 12.0)
 
  Commercials proportionately reduced longs more than shorts, but they showed little change on balance. Large Specs acted similarly, leaving the Small Specs to take up the longs - not usually a good sign for the bulls.

Saturday 18 April 2015

CFTC COT data of Apr 14th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 189513, spreads 2362 (1.2%).  Closing price Apr 14th 1.4780
 
  Nett differences:  Commercials  +57723 (from +51598)  Large Specs -36045 (from -343013)
                              Small Specs -21678 (from -17297)

  Proportions:
 Commercials (57.7% of total o/i) - 
  73.2% of Longs (from 71.2%), 42.3% of Shorts (vs 43.0%), balance plus 30.9 (vs plus 28.2)
 Large Specs (27.8% of total) - 
   18.2% of Longs (from 20.5%), 37.5% of Shorts (vs 39.3%), balance minus 19.3 (vs minus 18.8) 

  Small Specs (14.5% of total) - 
  8.6% of Longs (from 8.3%), 20.2% of Shorts (vs 17.7%), balance minus 11.6 (vs minus 9.4)

 Total o/i was higher again, but with prices continuing their recent sideways path, there is still little guidance to be found in these figures. It is noticeable however that Small Specs have been adding to shorts (= bearish), while Commercials have been replacing their longs (= longer-term bullish). Large Specs seem undecided, reducing both longs and shorts.
 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 119021, spreads 2103 (1.8%). Closing price Apr 14th 98.94
 


Nett differences:  Commercials -90485 (from -89822)  Large Specs +76407 (from +72806)
                              Small Specs +14078 (from +17016)
Proportions -

 Commercials (47.1% of total o/i) - 8.4% of Longs (from 8.0%), 85.8% of Shorts (vs 88.7%), balance minus 77.4 (vs minus 80.7)

 Large Specs (44.7% of total) - 77.4% of Longs (from 74.9%), 12.0% of Shorts (vs 9.5%), balance plus 65.4 (unchanged) 
  Small Specs (8.2% of total) - 14.2% of Longs (from 17.1%), 2.2% of Shorts (vs 1.8%), balance plus 12.0

 (vs plus 15.3)
   
  Large Specs added to both longs and shorts, leaving their proportionate balance unchanged, although on a nett basis they showed as going longer. Commercials proportionately were a little less short, while Small Specs were a little less long - both suggesting higher levels to come.

Saturday 11 April 2015

CFTC COT data of Apr 7th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]



British Pounds - Total o/i 185219, spreads 2006 (1.1%).  Closing price Apr 7th 1.4815
 
  Nett differences:  Commercials  +51598 (from +55619)  Large Specs -343013 (from -36630)
                              Small Specs -17297 (from -18989)

  Proportions:
 Commercials (57.1% of total o/i) - 
  71.2% of Longs (from 72.7%), 43.0% of Shorts (vs 41.8%), balance plus 28.2 (vs plus 30.9)
 Large Specs (29.9% of total) - 
   20.5% of Longs (from 19.5%), 39.3% of Shorts (vs 39.8%), balance minus 18.8 (vs minus 20.3) 

  Small Specs (13.0% of total) - 
  8.3% of Longs (from 7.8%), 17.7% of Shorts (vs 18.4%), balance minus 9.4 (vs minus 10.6)

 Total o/i was higher, but nett figures and balances were all reduced, suggesting reinforcement of existing opinions. There is still little guidance to be found in these figures (although the approach of the tightly balanced General Election [May 7th] is starting to heighten market nervousness). Commercials added to shorts, while both Large and Small Specs flirted with the long side.
 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 113690, spreads 2379 (2.1%). Closing price Apr 7th 98.06
 


Nett differences:  Commercials -89822 (from -92366)  Large Specs +72806 (from +73143)
                              Small Specs +17016 (from +19223)
Proportions -

 Commercials (48.4% of total o/i) - 8.0% of Longs (from 7.6%), 88.7% of Shorts (vs 86.4%), balance minus 80.7 (vs minus 78.8)

 Large Specs (42.2% of total) - 74.9% of Longs (from 74.4%), 9.5% of Shorts (vs 12.0%), balance plus 65.4 (vs plus 62.4) 
  Small Specs (9.4% of total) - 17.1% of Longs (from 18.0%), 1.8% of Shorts (vs 1.6%), balance plus 15.3

 (vs plus 16.4)
   
  Large Specs apparently expect the upward trend to be resumed, cutting their shorts considerably, but Commercials continue to sell - in the long run they tend to be right.

Saturday 4 April 2015

CFTC COT data of Mar 31st 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 182514, spreads 2354 (1.3%).  Closing price Mar 31st 1.4835
 
  Nett differences:  Commercials  +55619 (from +58858)  Large Specs -36630 (from -38557)
                              Small Specs -18989 (from -20301)
  Proportions:
 Commercials (57.2% of total o/i) - 
  72.7% of Longs (from 71.4%), 41.8% of Shorts (vs 37.8%), balance plus 30.9 (vs plus 33.6)
 Large Specs (29.7% of total) - 
   19.5% of Longs (from 20.5%), 39.8% of Shorts (vs 42.5%), balance minus 20.3 (vs minus 22.0) 
  Small Specs (13.1% of total) - 
  7.8% of Longs (from 8.1%), 18.4% of Shorts (vs 19.7%), balance minus 10.6 (vs minus 11.6)
All outright numbers were reduced, but overall (both proportionately and outright) figures showed little demonstrable change. This may be the result of the current sideways market, or of the long Easter holiday weekend in Britain, but either way it doesn't help provide much guidance.
 
Dollar Index: Total o/i 118796, spreads 1569 (1.3%). Closing price Mar 31st 98.65
 
Nett differences:  Commercials -92366 (from -88574)  Large Specs +73143 (from +71227)
                              Small Specs +19223 (from +17347)
Proportions -
 Commercials (47.0% of total o/i) - 7.6% of Longs (from 8.4%), 86.4% of Shorts (vs 86.0%), balance minus 78.8 (vs minus 77.6)
 Large Specs (43.2% of total) - 74.4% of Longs (from 73.1%), 12.0% of Shorts (vs 10.7%), balance plus 62.4 (vs plus 62.4) 
  Small Specs (9.8% of total) - 18.0% of Longs (from 18.5%), 1.6% of Shorts (vs 3.3%), balance plus 16.4
 (vs plus 15.2)
   
  The limited change that has taken place - with Commercials going shorter and Small Specs going longer - simply reinforces our current moderately negative view. Large Specs added almost equally to both longs and shorts.