Saturday, 15 September 2012

COT data of Sept 11th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Values continued to move higher, closing at 1.6070 on Tuesday 11th; total o/i increased considerably, reaching 181682 (from 133755), while spreads also increased (to 4712, from 79).

Nett differences moved noticeably again, with Commercials becoming considerably more negative at -14803 (from -1525), and Large Specs remaining negative, but not remarkably so (-4366, from- 6868). Small Specs however became even longer (nett +19169, from +8393). The figures themselves are not extraordinary, but the changes may be significant.
Proportionally, Commercials continued adding to their share of the total long position, with 49.5% (from 43.1%), but more importantly they added considerably to their shorts, both outright and proportionally (moving to 57.9% of total shorts, from 44.2%). Their share of the total o/i increased as well, to 53.7% (from 43.6%) - still a slightly low figure, but much nearer the normal 55-65% range.

Large Specs again reduced their share of total longs, with 27.9% (from 31.3%). Their shorts were also down, to 30.3% (from 36.4%), with total commitments dropping once again to 29.1% (from 33.9%). Their balance remains negative (minus 2.4, from minus 5.1), which is surprising, considering the strength and length of the recent uptrend.
Small Specs remained the most significant sector, even though their share of the total o/i came down to 17.2%. Their total longs came down to 22.6% (from 25.6%), but with their nett shorts down to 11.8% (from 19.3%), their balance of plus 10.8 was completely opposed by the Commercials (minus 8.4) and the Large Specs (minus 2.4). This is not a comfortable situation - we continue to feel that a decline, once it starts, could be abrupt.

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