Wednesday 28 May 2014

COT data of May 20th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 237637, spreads 3255 (1.4%).  Closing price May 20th 1.6835
 
Nett differences:  Commercials -49791 (from -54328)  Large Specs +33090 (from +31755)  
  Small Specs +16701 (from +22573)

Proportions:   
Commercials (61.0% of total o/i) - 
50.4% of Longs (from 50.3%), 71.6% of Shorts (vs 74.2%), balance minus 21.2 (vs minus 23.9)

Large Specs (27.1% of total) -
34.1% of Longs (from 31.3%), 20.0% of Shorts (vs 17.3%), balance plus 14.1 (vs plus 14.0)

Small Specs (11.9% of total) -
15.5% of Longs (from 18.4%), 8.4% of Shorts (vs 8.5%), balance plus 7.1 (vs plus 9.9) 
 
Over the last 3 weeks, it is noticeable that Small Specs were at their longest (both outright and proportionately) as prices reached their highs - they remain quite long, so contrarians will remain unfriendly to the Pound on that basis. However, Commercials have been reducing their overall shorts while Large Specs have reduced their overall longs (although adding to them slightly in the latest week) - it appears that any downmove is likely to be limited in scope.

COT data of May 13th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 230333, spreads 3098 (1.3%).  Closing price May 13th 1.6830
 
Nett differences:  Commercials -54328 (from -64295)  Large Specs +31755 (from +40646)  Small Specs +22573 (from +23649)

Proportions:   

Commercials (62.3% of total o/i) - 
50.3% of Longs (from 45.4%), 74.2% of Shorts (vs 72.4%), balance minus 23.9 (vs minus 27.0)

Large Specs (24.3% of total) -
31.3% of Longs (from 35.2%), 17.3% of Shorts (vs 18.1%), balance plus 14.0 (vs plus 17.1)

Small Specs (13.4% of total) -
18.4% of Longs (from 19.4%), 8.5% of Shorts (vs 9.5%), balance plus 9.9 (vs plus 9.9)

COT data of May 6th 2014 - British Pound [BP]









British Pounds - Total o/i 241264, spreads 2978 (1.2%).  Closing price May 6th 1.6975
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -64295 (from -65316)  Large Specs +40646 (from +44234)  Small Specs +23649 (from +21082)


Proportions:   

Commercials (58.9% of total o/i) - 

45.4% of Longs (from 45.5%), 72.4% of Shorts (vs 73.5%), balance minus 27.0 (vs minus 28.0)

Large Specs (26.6% of total) - 

35.2% of Longs (from 36.8%), 18.1% of Shorts (vs 17.8%), balance plus 17.1 (vs plus 19.0)

Small Specs (14.5% of total) - 

19.4% of Longs (from 17.7%), 9.5% of Shorts (vs 8.7%), balance plus 9.9 (vs plus 9.0)


Saturday 3 May 2014

COT data of Apr 29th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 236030, spreads 2669 (1.1%).  Closing price April 29th 1.6825
 
Nett differences:  Commercials -65316 (from -67077)  Large Specs +44234 (from +47800)  Small Specs +21082 (from +19277)

Proportions:   
Commercials (59.5% of total o/i) - 
45.5% of Longs (from 44.9%, 73.5% of Shorts (vs 73.5%), balance minus 28.0 (vs minus 28.6)
Large Specs (27.3% of total) - 
36.8% of Longs (from 38.2%), 17.8% of Shorts (vs 17.8%), balance plus 19.0 (vs plus 20.4)
Small Specs (13.2% of total) - 
17.7% of Longs (from 16.9%), 8.7% of Shorts (vs 8.7%), balance plus 9.0 (vs plus 8.2)

Once again, very little change showing - indeed, all the 'proportionate' short positions are precisely the same as the previous week. Commercials again added slightly to longs, reducing their nett and proportionate short position, but this seems barely significant. Large Specs reduced longs, while Small Specs added to theirs.

The Dollar Index COT also showed little change overall, with Commercials (who only hold 16% of the total open interest) again reducing longs and adding to shorts, while Large Specs (with a 73% share of the market) came out a shade less short of the Dollar. Small Specs (who are not invariably wrong in this market) hold all the nett longs.
 
With some relief, we have to say that there will be no reports for the next 3 weeks - perhaps by month-end, BP positions will be providing more significant guidance.