Sunday 30 September 2012

COT data of Sept 25th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Values slightly lower, to 1.6190 on Tuesday 25th; total o/i up, to 172,103, with spreads very low, at 135.

Nett differences: 
Commercials -53922, from -37352.  Large Specs +27137, from +14412.  Small Specs +26785, from +22940.
 
Proportions:  
Commercials (55.0% of total o/i) - 39.3% of Longs, 70.7% of Shorts, balance minus 31.4
Large Specs (27.5% of total) - 35.4% of Longs, 19.6% of Shorts, balance plus 15.8
Small Specs (17.5% of total) - 25.3% of Longs, 9.7% of Shorts, balance plus 15.6
 
Commercials have added a little to their longs, but even more to their shorts, taking them to their biggest minus balance this year. Basis May 8th (a week after prices reached their rally high, and before a fall of almost 800 points), Commercials were nett minus 24.3, Large Specs nett plus 12.7, and Small Specs nett plus 11.6 - all these figures have now been exceeded. On this basis, we maintain last week's opinion - we look for a fall in prices soon.

Sunday 23 September 2012

COT data of Sept 18th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Values up again, to 1.6245 on Tuesday 18th; total o/i down, to 151,305, with spreads much lower, at 578.

Nett differences: 
Commercials -37352, from -14803.  Large Specs +14412, from -4366.  Small Specs +22940, from +19169.
 
Proportions:  
Commercials (50.5% of total o/i) - 38.1% of Longs, 62.9% of Shorts, balance minus 24.8
Large Specs (30.1% of total) - 34.9% of Longs, 25.3% of Shorts, balance plus 9.6 
Small Specs (19.4% of total) - 27.0% of Longs, 11.8% of Shorts, balance plus 15.2
 
Commercials have their biggest minus balance since early May, and Small Specs their largest plus balance -
we look for a fall in prices soon.

Saturday 15 September 2012

COT data of Sept 11th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Values continued to move higher, closing at 1.6070 on Tuesday 11th; total o/i increased considerably, reaching 181682 (from 133755), while spreads also increased (to 4712, from 79).


Nett differences moved noticeably again, with Commercials becoming considerably more negative at -14803 (from -1525), and Large Specs remaining negative, but not remarkably so (-4366, from- 6868). Small Specs however became even longer (nett +19169, from +8393). The figures themselves are not extraordinary, but the changes may be significant.
 
Proportionally, Commercials continued adding to their share of the total long position, with 49.5% (from 43.1%), but more importantly they added considerably to their shorts, both outright and proportionally (moving to 57.9% of total shorts, from 44.2%). Their share of the total o/i increased as well, to 53.7% (from 43.6%) - still a slightly low figure, but much nearer the normal 55-65% range.

Large Specs again reduced their share of total longs, with 27.9% (from 31.3%). Their shorts were also down, to 30.3% (from 36.4%), with total commitments dropping once again to 29.1% (from 33.9%). Their balance remains negative (minus 2.4, from minus 5.1), which is surprising, considering the strength and length of the recent uptrend.
Small Specs remained the most significant sector, even though their share of the total o/i came down to 17.2%. Their total longs came down to 22.6% (from 25.6%), but with their nett shorts down to 11.8% (from 19.3%), their balance of plus 10.8 was completely opposed by the Commercials (minus 8.4) and the Large Specs (minus 2.4). This is not a comfortable situation - we continue to feel that a decline, once it starts, could be abrupt.

Sunday 9 September 2012

COT data of Sept 4th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]


British Pounds - Values moved slightly higher from the previous report date (and have moved higher again since then). Total o/i stood at 133755 (from 117034), while spreads were very low (79, from 633).

Nett differences moved noticeably again, with Commercials remaining negative, but less so (-1525, from -6109), and Large Specs also becoming negative (- 6868, from +1968). Small Specs continued to add to longs (nett +8393, from +4141). 
Proportionally, Commercials started adding to their share of the total long position, with 43.1% (from the previous very low 39.6%), while their shorts were slightly lower, at 44.2% (from 44.9%). Their share of the total o/i increased slightly, to 43.6% (from 42.7%), still a rather low figure. Normally, their share stands in the 55-65% range.

Large Specs reduced their share of total longs, with 31.3% (from 36.4%). Their shorts were higher, at 36.4% (from 34.7%), with total commitments dropping to 33.9% (from 35.6%). Their balance thus moves to minus 5.1, from plus 1.7 - back to their normal stance. However, Small Specs added to longs yet again, now holding 25.6%, with shorts down to 19.3%. Their balance goes to a rather high plus 6.3, although their share of the total dropped a little, from 22.7% to 22.5%. Their balance remains well below the highest that we have seen, but with both the Commercials and the Large Specs on the other side, the danger of liquidation by weak holders remains high - a fall in values could initiate considerable selling pressure.

There are still no strong signals, but on balance the start of any decline will make us more convincedly bearish.

Sunday 2 September 2012

COT data of August 28th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Moved higher over the 2-week period since our last report, managing a rally to just above 1.5900 on Aug 23rd - however, there was no follow-through, and last Tuesday's close was off the best at 1.5820. Total o/i (at 117034) was a little higher, although down from the previous week, and spreads (at 633, 0.5% of the total) remained low.

Nett differences were more interesting than usual, with Commercials moving from positive to negative (-5155 basis the 21st, -6109 basis the 28th), and Large Specs moving in the reverse direction (+7833 basis the 21st,  but back to +1968 basis the 28th). Small Specs were possibly the most significant, showing -2678 basis the 21st, but moving to nett long at +4141 basis the 28th. 
Proportionally, Commercials reduced their share of the total long position even further, to 39.6% (from 40.0%), while their shorts were not much changed, at 44.9% (from 44.4%). Their share of the total o/i continued to decline, to 42.7% - a rather low figure.

Large Specs again increased their share of total longs, with 36.4% (from 22.7% just a month ago). Their shorts were also higher, at 34.7%, with total commitments rising to 35.6%. Their balance of plus 1.7 does not provide much guidance either way. Small Specs added to longs once again, now holding 24.0%, with shorts down to 20.4%. Their share of the total is now rather high, at 22.7%.

Overall, Commercials have moved to a nett balance of minus 5.3; at the January lows, the figure was plus 31.1, while soon after the May high and before the subsequent decline it was minus 24.2, so there is as yet no signal that the current steadiness is about to end - nevertheless, the move from nett short to nett long by the Small Specs (currently plus 3.6, compared to 2012 extremes of minus 11.4 at the January lows and plus 12.0 at the May highs), suggests that weak holders could be forced to liquidate if values start to fall.

With no strong signals being given, we have to remain patient, but on balance will wait to become more convincedly bearish.