Saturday 28 June 2014

COT data of June 24th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

 
 
British Pounds - Total o/i 254369, spreads 2077 (0.8%).  Closing price June 24th 1.6985
 
Nett differences:  Commercials -68896 (from -72946)  Large Specs +49751 (from +52596)  Small Specs +19145 (from +20350)   
 
Proportions:   
Commercials (59.3% of total o/i) -
45.6% of Longs (from 43.3%), 72.9% of Shorts (vs 72.7%), balance minus 27.3 (vs minus 29.4)
Large Specs (29.0% of total) -
38.9% of Longs (from 40.5%), 19.2% of Shorts (vs 19.3%), balance plus 19.7 (vs plus 21.2)
Small Specs (11.7% of total) -
15.5% of Longs (from 16.2%), 7.9% of Shorts (vs 8.0%), balance plus 7.6 (vs plus 8.2) 
 
Commercials have added to both longs and shorts, but the main change has been in their increased longs - on balance, they still remain noticeably nett short however. Both Large and Small Specs have reduced their commitments, but remain quite long on balance. We continue to look for reasons to short the Pound. 

(Open positions in the Dollar Index have not changed much since the previous week's major changes, with Commercials remaining very short. It seems they expect the recent downtrend to continue.) 

Saturday 21 June 2014

COT data of June 17th 2014 - British Pound [BP]


British Pounds - Total o/i 250231, spreads 1964 (0.8%).  Closing price June 17th 1.6960 
 
Nett differences:  Commercials -72946 (from -51429)  Large Specs +52596 (from +35842)  Small Specs +20350 (from +15587)   
 
Proportions:   
Commercials (58.0% of total o/i) -
43.3% of Longs (from 51.0%), 72.7% of Shorts (vs 71.8%), balance minus 29.4 (vs minus 20.8)
Large Specs (29.9% of total) -
40.5% of Longs (from 34.4%), 19.3% of Shorts (vs 19.9%), balance plus 21.2 (vs plus 14.5)
Small Specs (12.1% of total) -
16.2% of Longs (from 14.6%), 8.0% of Shorts (vs 8.3%), balance plus 8.2 (vs plus 6.3) 
 
Commercials have cut longs and added to shorts considerably, on both an outright and a proportional basis, while both Large and Small Specs have increased longs while reducing shorts. Based on these figures, it's time to look for reasons to short the Pound. 

(Open positions in the Dollar Index have changed massively, with Commercials shorting aggressively, and Large Specs cutting shorts as well as adding to longs. Commercials now hold over 32% of the total open position, while Large Specs have come down from 75% to only just over 60%. It seems that Commercials have firmed up their view.)
 
(Bear in mind that the Dollar Index is based primarily [57.6%] on the Euro, and only 11.9% on Sterling)

Saturday 14 June 2014

COT data of June 10th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 271602, spreads 23738 (8.7%).  Closing price June 10th 1.6755
 
Nett differences:  Commercials -51429 (from -45320)  Large Specs +35842 (from +34974) 
  Small Specs +15587 (from +18346) 

Proportions:   
Commercials (61.4% of total o/i) -
51.0% of Longs (from 53.1%), 71.8% of Shorts (vs 72.3%), balance minus 20.8 (vs minus 19.2)
Large Specs (27.1% of total) -
34.4% of Longs (from 33.6%), 19.9% of Shorts (vs 18.8%), balance plus 14.5 (vs plus 14.8)
Small Specs (11.5% of total) -
14.6% of Longs (from 13.3%), 8.3% of Shorts (vs 8.9%), balance plus 6.3 (vs plus 4.4) 
 
Most sectors reverted to their positions of 2 weeks ago, when we had said we found they gave us little guidance - we go back to that comment. The switch of months, from June to September (influencing the spread figures in particular), may mean postponing decisions for another week, although the comparatively small long position held by Small Specs keeps us biased to the bull side. However, the strong rally of the last two days may have already fulfilled that promise. 
(The Dollar Index does not help much, with Large Specs - who hold exactly 75% of the total o/i - being as close to square as make no difference.) 

Sunday 8 June 2014

COT data of June 3rd 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 239604, spreads 3328 (1.4%).  Closing price June 3rd 1.6750
 
Nett differences:  Commercials -45320 (from -51251)  Large Specs +34974 (from +35304)  
  Small Specs +18346 (from +15947) 
Proportions:   
Commercials (62.7% of total o/i) -
53.1% of Longs (from 51.4%), 72.3% of Shorts (vs 73.2%), balance minus 19.2 (vs minus 21.8)
Large Specs (26.2% of total) -
33.6% of Longs (from 33.3%), 18.8% of Shorts (vs 18.3%), balance plus 14.8 (vs plus 15.0)
Small Specs (11.1% of total) -
13.3% of Longs (from 15.3%), 8.9% of Shorts (vs 8.5%), balance plus 4.4 (vs plus 6.8) 
 
Commercials added to longs and reduced shorts, thus continuing the trend that was briefly interrupted last week. Large Specs added slightly to both longs and shorts, with little nett change. Small Specs reduced longs considerably and added slightly to shorts. On balance, it all looks a shade bullish for the Pound. 
(The Dollar Index may confirm this view, with Commercials adding to nett shorts, although Large Specs - who hold around 3/4 of the total o/i - went nett long, from short).

Sunday 1 June 2014

COT data of May 27th 2014 - British Pound [BP]




British Pounds - Total o/i 238440, spreads 3171 (1.3%).  Closing price May 27th 1.6810
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -51251 (from -49791)  Large Specs +35304 (from +33090)  
  Small Specs +15947 (from +16701) 

Proportions:   

Commercials (62.3% of total o/i) - 

51.4% of Longs (from 50.4%), 73.2% of Shorts (vs 71.6%), balance minus 21.8 (vs minus 21.2)

Large Specs (25.8% of total) -

33.3% of Longs (from 34.1%), 18.3% of Shorts (vs 20.0%), balance plus 15.0 (vs plus 14.1)

Small Specs (11.9% of total) -

15.3% of Longs (from 15.5%), 8.5% of Shorts (vs 8.4%), balance plus 6.8 (vs plus 7.1) 
 
There has been insufficient change in any of the positions - whether outright or proportionate - to draw any worthwhile conclusions. We shall have to wait for more definite position-taking to give us a lead. (The same applies to this week's Dollar Index positions).