Monday, 26 March 2012

COT data of March 20th 2012

British Pounds - Tuesday's close, at 1.5860, showed some improvement from the previous 1.5700, justifying Commercials' decision to add to longs. The latest figures however are distorted by the close of the March contract, with the total open position way down at 141411 (from 202880). Spreads similarly went down to only 99, from the previous 7246.
In light of these reductions, it seems best to wait for the next set of figures before committing funds - however, one can note that Commercials appear to have lessened their enthusiasm (their nett was plus 20814, and they held only 67.9% of the total long O/I, down from 80.2%, with their shorts around unchanged as a proportion, at 53.2%, from 53.0%).
Large Specs added to longs and reduced shorts, while Small Specs added to longs AND shorts - their share of the total open position is now comparatively high, at 15.4%, compared to a normal 12% or so.
Hopefully the next set of figures will provide more convincing guidance, but for the moment we are not as bullish as we were.

Tuesday, 20 March 2012

London Cocoa open interest - March 13th

Commercials reduced longs and maintained their share of shorts, while 'Others' also maintained their share of shorts but added to longs. Nett positions: Commercials plus 6.8 (from plus 12.1), 'Others' minus 5.3 (from minus 10.1), Small Specs minus 1.5 (from minus 2.0). Taken together with Commercials' nett position at +11707 (from +21477), suggests lower prices to come ...

London (Robusta) Coffee open interest - March 13th

The trend established last week has continued - yesterday's figures show Commercials going short, at nett - 5894 from - 17 (and previously long). Their longs were unchanged, but they added to shorts (now holding 61.6% of the total open short position). 'Others' added to longs, and reduced shorts, while Small Specs reduced both longs and shorts, with little net change. 'On balance figures' (which nett out): Commercials minus 10.1 (from square), Others plus 11.8 (from plus 1.5), and Small Specs minus 1.7 (from minus 1.5). Should lead to lower prices in due course ...

Saturday, 17 March 2012

COT data of March 13th 2012

British Pounds - Tuesday's close was little changed from previously, at 1.5700, but Large Specs continued to add (slightly) to Shorts, taking their nett position up to minus 21.4, from minus 20.2, with their share of total longs down to 11.2% and total shorts fractionally up, to 32.6%. Small Specs reduced their longs as well as adding to shorts. More significantly, Commercials changed their nett position from plus 23.6 to plus 27.2, with their nett difference going up from +43326 to +53214.
All of this seems to confirm that long Sterling positions could prove profitable ....

Tuesday, 13 March 2012

London (Robusta) Coffee open interest - March 6th

Very intriguing figures published yesterday - Commercials (at March 6) were square, with 51.4% of the total longs AND 51.4% of the total shorts - so, having been nett long 13188 contracts the previous week, they're now flat. Small Specs are offset by 'the others', at plus 1.5 versus minus 1.5 - lower prices seem likely.

Sunday, 11 March 2012

London (Robusta) Coffee open interest

Will be watching tomorrow's stats with interest - Commercials (based on last week's figures) had reduced their longs considerably , with their nett positions down to +13188 from +18713 the week before, and their nett (based on percantage of the total) down to plus 17.3, from 23.7 previously. If this continues, we should be looking for declining prices ....
(Small specs are slightly long overall at present, but they've been swinging either side of zero for some time now - probably not a major factor, even though they hold over 12% of the total O/I, compared to just over 7% in London Cocoa)
[Note: figures are not published until Monday/s]

COT data of March 6th 2012

British Pounds - With Tuesday's close at 1.5715, Large Specs had gone considerably shorter - after taking their nett shorts down from 21.2 on Feb 14 to 13.2 on Feb 28th, they moved back to 20.2, with their share of total longs down to 12.2% and total shorts up to 22.3%. However (more importantly), Commercials changed their nett position from plus 17.4 to plus 23.6, with their nett difference going up from +30702 to +43326.
This suggests a small but perhaps significant change in attitude - Commercials are liking Sterling more than they did ....