Sunday, 3 June 2012

COT data of May 29th 2012

British Pounds - Tuesday's close was lower again, but our suggestion that "the downtrend may be ending" was somewhat previous. Nevertheless, the figures continue to show that Commercials are moving from noticeably short to almost square.

Total o/i was down again, at 181435, with the proportion of spreads around unchanged, at 0.5% of the total.

Commercials again raised their share of total Longs, to 66.5% (from 63.3%), and reduced their share of Shorts to 68.3% (from 72.1%). Nett therefore was minus 1.8 (from minus 8.8), continuing the recent trend. Large Specs moved to 20.0% of total Longs (from 22.3%), and to 19.2% of total Shorts (from 16.1%) - so their nett moved from plus 6.2 to plus 0.8. Small Specs went down to 13.5% of total Longs (from 14.4%), while their total Shorts went up to 12.5% (from 11.8%).

Nett differences were once again all sharply reduced - Commercials minus 3344 (from minus 16179), Large Specs plus 1475 (from plus 11340), and Small Specs plus 1869 (from plus 4839).

 With this background, we continue to watch carefully for the next technical trigger that will turn the market round.

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