Saturday 27 June 2015

CFTC COT data of Jun 23rd 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

Please note - this will be the last published comment on Pound and Dollar Index. Thank you for your interest ... 

British Pounds - Total o/i 178641, spreads 1234 (0.7%).  Closing price Jun 23rd 1.5725
  
 Nett differences:  Commercials  +15587 (from +25547)  Large Specs -22194 (from -25434) 
                              Small Specs +6607 (from -113) 

  Proportions: 
Commercials (50.6% of total o/i) - 55.0% of Longs (from 60.6%), 46.2% of Shorts (from 43.0%), balance plus 8.8 (from plus 17.6)
Large Specs (35.3% of total) - 29.0% of Longs (from 23.3), 41.5% of Shorts (from 40.8%), balance minus 12.5 (from minus 17.5) 
   Small Specs (14.1% of total) - 16.0% of Longs (from 16.1%), 12.3% of Shorts 
  (from 16.2%), balance plus 3.7 (from minus 0.1) 

  A change of attitude this week, with Commercials becoming bearish and Small Specs moving to the bull tack. Also a marked difference between the outright positions and the proportional - Commercials for example added to their total longs but held a lesser share of the increased total o/i, with the opposite showing on their shorts. Their proportionate balance, of plus 8.8, is the smallest since October last year - after that, Sterling gradually eased. With Small Specs going long, we expect the same to happen this time. 



Dollar Index: Total o/i 85932, spreads 1835 (2.1%). Closing price Jun 23rd 95.64
 
Nett differences:  Commercials -63553 (from -65003)  Large Specs +52345 (from +53420) 
 Small Specs +11208 (from +11583)

Proportions -
 Commercials (46.7% of total o/i) - 8.9% of Longs (from 9.3%), 84.4% of Shorts (from 85.6%), balance minus 75.5 (from minus 76.3)
 Large Specs (44.6% of total) - 75.7% of Longs (from 75.1%), 13.5% of Shorts (from 12.4%), balance plus 62.2 (from plus 62.7)
  Small Specs (8.7% of total) - 15.4% of Longs (from 15.6%), 2.1% of Shorts (from 2.0%), balance plus 13.3 (from plus 13.6)

Not much change overall (although we note that prices did dip, as expected, in the period between the 16th and the 23rd). Commercials are still favouring the short side - so do we. 

Please note - this will be the last published comment on Pound and Dollar Index. Thank you for your interest ... 

Saturday 20 June 2015

CFTC COT data of Jun 16th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 146635, spreads 1350 (0.9%).  Closing price Jun 16th 1.5650
 
 Nett differences:  Commercials  +25547 (from +30440)  Large Specs -25434 (from -28277)
                              Small Specs -113 (from -2163)
  Proportions:


 Commercials (51.8% of total o/i) - 60.6% of Longs (from 69.5%), 43.0% of Shorts (from 52.0%), balance plus 17.6 (from plus 17.5)
 Large Specs (32.1% of total) - 23.3% of Longs (from 17.8), 40.8% of Shorts (from 34.0%), balance minus 17.5 (from minus 16.2) 
  Small Specs (16.1% of total) - 16.1% of Longs (from 12.7%), 16.2% of Shorts (from 14.0%), balance minus 0.1 (from minus 1.3)
 
  Both spreads and total o/i were reduced considerably, primarily by the Commercials, but their proportional balance ended not much changed. Small Specs hold their largest total open position since early January - with their balance near square, this could suggest twitchy trading in the near term. Large Specs added to longs, but were also hanging on to their shorts - it will be interesting to see whether they have thrown in the towel during the recent rally. With Commercials still moderately long, dips are likely to be limited. 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 86281, spreads 1140 (1.3%). Closing price Jun 16th 95.26
Nett differences:  Commercials -65003 (from -76035)  Large Specs +53420 (from +62877)

                              Small Specs +11583 (from +13158)
Proportions -
 Commercials (47.4% of total o/i) - 9.3% of Longs (from 12.8%), 85.6% of Shorts (from 87.9%), balance minus 76.3 (from minus 75.1)
 Large Specs (43.8% of total) - 75.1% of Longs (from 72.5%), 12.4% of Shorts (from 10.4%), balance plus 62.7 (from plus 62.1) 
  Small Specs (8.8% of total) - 15.6% of Longs (from 14.7%), 2.0% of Shorts (from 1.7%), balance plus 13.6 (from plus 13.0)
 
  Total o/i fell considerably, but proportions did not change dramatically. Commercials reduced both longs and shorts, but stayed nett short overall. Large Specs reduced longs considerably, although proportionately they held an increased share. There still seems no reason to turn bullish.

Saturday 13 June 2015

CFTC COT data of Jun 9th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 181049, spreads 6831 (3.8%).  Closing price Jun 9th 1.5375
 
 Nett differences:  Commercials  +30440 (from +28514)  Large Specs -28277 (from -25658)
                              Small Specs -2163 (from -2856)

  Proportions:
 Commercials (60.8% of total o/i) - 
  69.5% of Longs (from 68.1%), 52.0% of Shorts (from 51.6%), balance plus 17.5 (from plus 16.5)
 Large Specs (25.9% of total) -
   17.8% of Longs (from 19.0), 34.0% of Shorts (from 33.8%), balance minus 16.2 (from minus 14.8) 

  Small Specs (13.3% of total) - 
  12.7% of Longs (from 12.9%), 14.0% of Shorts (from 14.6%), balance minus 1.3 (from minus 1.7)
 
  Although total o/i went up, much of the increase comprised additional spreads, presumably ahead of the June position going off the board. Otherwise, not much change, in either total or proportional figures.  Once again, we can only reiterate previous comments, although the odds on some further steadiness are looking stronger. 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 105463, spreads 4204 (4.0%). Closing price Jun 9th 95.17


Nett differences:  Commercials -76035 (from -73188)  Large Specs +62877 (from +59722)
                              Small Specs +13158 (from +13466)
Proportions -

 Commercials (50.3% of total o/i) - 12.8% of Longs (from 12.6%), 87.9% of Shorts (from 86.2%), balance minus 75.1 (from minus 73.6)

 Large Specs (41.5% of total) - 72.5% of Longs (from 72.9%), 10.4% of Shorts (from 12.8%), balance plus 62.1 (from plus 60.1) 
  Small Specs (8.2% of total) - 14.7% of Longs (from 14.5%), 1.7% of Shorts (from 1.0%), balance plus 13.0
(from plus 13.5)
 
  Commercials added considerably to shorts and also added slightly to longs, taking their total share of o/i to just over 50%. Large Specs did the reverse, while Small Specs remained basically sidelined. There seems no reason to change our view - taking guidance from the Commercials, in the medium term we'll remain bearish. 

Saturday 6 June 2015

CFTC COT data of Jun 2nd 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]


British Pounds - Total o/i 175291, spreads 2560 (1.5%).  Closing price Jun 2nd 1.5345
 
 Nett differences:  Commercials  +28514 (from +26865)  Large Specs -25658 (from -25539)
                              Small Specs -2856 (from -1326)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (59.8% of total o/i) - 
  68.1% of Longs (from 67.4%), 51.6% of Shorts (from 52.0%), balance plus 16.5 (from plus 15.4)
 Large Specs (26.4% of total) - 
   19.0% of Longs (from 19.8), 33.8% of Shorts (from 34.4%), balance minus 14.8 (from minus 14.6) 

  Small Specs (13.8% of total) - 
  12.9% of Longs (from 12.8%), 14.6% of Shorts (from 13.6%), balance minus 1.7 (from minus 0.8)

  Very little change in either the o/i figures or in the week-to-week price - we can only reiterate last week's comment: major weakness from here looks unlikely.

Dollar Index: Total o/i 102174, spreads 2708 (2.7%). Closing price Jun 2nd 95.90


Nett differences:  Commercials -73188 (from -65900)  Large Specs +59722 (from +52296)
                              Small Specs +13466 (from +13604)
Proportions -

 Commercials (49.4% of total o/i) - 12.6% of Longs (from 14.5%), 86.2% of Shorts (vs 80.2%), balance minus 73.6 (vs minus 65.7)

 Large Specs (42.8% of total) - 72.9% of Longs (from 69.5%), 12.8% of Shorts (vs 17.3%), balance plus 60.1 (vs plus 52.2) 
  Small Specs (7.8% of total) - 14.5% of Longs (from 16.0%), 1.0% of Shorts (vs 2.5%), balance plus 13.5
 (unchanged)
 
 Once again, Commercials reduced longs and added to shorts, while Large Specs added to longs but - this time - reduced shorts considerably. Small Specs reduced both long and short positions. Last week's comment proved correct, but this week's decision is more difficult - should one follow the Commercials (who are distinctly short), or the Large Specs (who are comparatively long)? [Small Specs seem to reflect this dilemma - they have a very limited commitment at present].  Our inclination, as always, is to take guidance from the Commercials in the medium term.