Monday, 2 July 2012

COT data of June 26th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Last Tuesday's close, at 1.5640, was lower, and further advances have proved difficult.

Total o/i (114561) was down to quite low levels - spreads (946) likewise, and netts were down in line - Commercials +13394 (from +29210), and Large Specs -758 (from -17153), with Small Specs showing an increase at -12636 (from -12057).
This Small Spec position was borne out by the proportional holdings, which showed them with 25.3% of the total o/i (14.2% of total longs, and 25.3% of total shorts). This overweight position would lead one to expect a rush of short-covering if prices started to move up - but perhaps we've already seen this after the EU news last Friday.  

The other figures showed participants moving closer to neutral - Commercials held 48.8% of the total o/i (54.7% of the Longs, 42.9% of the Shorts = nett plus 11.8), Large Specs had 31.4 of the total (31.1% of Longs, 31.8% of Shorts = nett minus 0.7). 

With Commercials reducing Longs (they held 74.8% of the total just 2 weeks ago) as well as adding to Shorts, we are no longer bullish of the Pound - although remaining nervous about the large Small Spec short position.

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