Sunday 30 June 2013

COT data of June 25th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  123602; spreads 2643 - total is still very low. .

Nett differences:
Commercials +21781 (from +22615).  Large Specs -19429 (from -20406).  Small Specs -2352 (from -2209).  Indecision/lack of commitment continues. 

Proportions:  
Commercials (43.2% of total o/i) - 52.2% of Longs, 34.2% of Shorts, balance plus 18.0
Large Specs (36.5% of total) - 28.5% of Longs, 44.5% of Shorts, balance minus16.0
Small Specs (20.3% of total) - 19.3% of Longs, 21.3% of Shorts, balance minus 2.0
 
The price trend has continued downwards, and based on these figures looks set to continue - however, there is still a comparative lack of enthusiasm from the bull or bear camp - we still wait before committing.

Saturday 22 June 2013

COT data of June 18th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  140550 (from 219176); spreads 1886 (from 21274) - the switch of the spot month still seems to be creating mayhem, but the situation should settle down within the next couple of weeks.

Nett differences:

Commercials +22615 (from +66046).  Large Specs -20406 (from -53687).  Small Specs -2209 (from -12359).  The change in Commercials' positions from 2 or 3 weeks ago, when they were nett long over 100,000 contracts, demonstrates the importance of the "proportional" approach.

Proportions:  
Commercials (40.2% of total o/i) - 48.3% of Longs, 32.0% of Shorts, balance plus 16.3
Large Specs (41.5% of total) - 34.2% of Longs, 48.9% of Shorts, balance minus14.7
Small Specs (18.3% of total) - 17.5% of Longs, 19.1% of Shorts, balance minus 1.6

As the best signals are given at times of extremes - of optimism or pessimism - among the classes of participants, and as this time around there are no extremes, we shall wait before committing. 

Saturday 15 June 2013

COT data of June 11th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  219176; spreads 21274 - around 9.7% of the total. Either the figures are wrong, or the switch of months is creating mayhem (although last quarter, in mid-March, the figure also jumped - albeit only from 2.0% to 6.1%) - either way, we prefer to draw no conclusions.

Nett differences:
Commercials +66046 (from +101828).  Large Specs -53687 (from -77738).  Small Specs -12359 (from -24090).

Proportions:  
Commercials (56.0% of total o/i) - 72.6% of Longs, 39.3% of Shorts, balance plus 33.3
Large Specs (30.1% of total) - 16.6% of Longs, 43.7% of Shorts, balance minus 27.1
Small Specs (13.9% of total) - 10.8% of Longs, 17.0% of Shorts, balance minus 6.2

Even though the switch to June as the spot month may be confusing, the figures appear to show that Commercials believe the recent advance has run its course. We shall be looking for signals to sell 
rather than to buy.

Sunday 9 June 2013

COT data of June 4th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  210499; spreads 3511 - up to around 1.7% of the total, possibly as a result of the switch of spot trading month.

Nett differences:

Commercials +101828 (from +101363).  Large Specs -77738 (from -74525).  Small Specs -24090 (from -26838).

Proportions:  
Commercials (55.2% of total o/i) - 79.8% of Longs, 30.6% of Shorts, balance plus 49.2
Large Specs (31.7% of total) - 12.9% of Longs, 50.5% of Shorts, balance minus 37.6
Small Specs (13.1% of total) - 7.3% of Longs, 18.9% of Shorts, balance minus 11.6

Although the direction remains the same as previously, the fact that open positions are being affected by the spot June position going off the board, taken together with the major change in prices since the figures were collected last Tuesday (spot moved up to around 1.57 from nearer 1.53, before falling back slightly), makes any conclusion more uncertain than usual. However, for the time being we have to stay with the trend; based on these figures, it still seems likely that Sterling will strengthen against the Dollar. 

Saturday 1 June 2013

COT data of May 28th 2013 - British Pound [BP]


British Pounds - Total o/i  221612; spreads 2727 - again around 1.2% of the total.

Nett differences:
Commercials +101363 (from +103998).  Large Specs -74525 (from -76976).  Small Specs -26838 (from -27022).

Proportions:  
Commercials (52.7% of total o/i) - 75.8% of Longs, 29.5% of Shorts, balance plus 46.3
Large Specs (33.6% of total) - 16.6% of Longs, 50.6% of Shorts, balance minus 34.0
Small Specs (13.7% of total) - 7.6% of Longs, 19.9% of Shorts, balance minus 12.3

Rather less commitment this week compared to last, although the direction remains the same - based on these figures, it still seems likely that Sterling will strengthen against the Dollar - but we wouldn't bet the farm on it.