Saturday 31 January 2015

CFTC COT data of Jan 27th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 185350, spreads 1916 (1.0%).  Closing price Jan 27th 1.5190 

  Nett differences:  Commercials  +66219 (from +66280)  Large Specs -45340 (from -45708)
                              Small Specs -20879 (from -20572)   


  Proportions:

 Commercials (52.4% of total o/i) - 
  70.4% of Longs (from 71.5%), 34.3% of Shorts (vs 34.7%), balance plus 36.1 (vs plus 36.8)


 Large Specs (33.4% of total) - 
  21.1% of Longs (from 19.6%), 45.8% of Shorts (vs 45.0%), balance minus 24.7 (vs minus 25.4)   


  Small Specs (14.2% of total) - 

  8.5% of Longs (from 8.9%), 19.9% of Shorts (vs 20.3%), balance minus 11.4 (vs minus 11.4) 
 
Really not enough change to give any particular signal/s - with values almost unchanged for 4 weeks, thats not surprising. Commercials are still expecting the Pound to rise.

 
Dollar Index: Total o/i 129495, spreads 1790 (1.4%). Closing price Jan 27th 94.26


Nett differences:  Commercials -90114 (from -89122)  Large Specs +70673 (from +73168)
                              Small Specs +19441 (from +15954)


Proportions -


Commercials (45.5% of total o/i) - 10.2% of Longs (from 10.4%), 80.8% of Shorts (vs 79.6%), balance minus 70.6 (vs minus 69.2)


Large Specs (44.6% of total) - 72.2% of Longs (from 75.4%), 16.9% of Shorts (vs 18.6%), balance plus 55.3 (vs plus 56.8) 
 
 Small Specs (9.9% of total) - 17.6% of Longs (from 14.2%), 2.3% of Shorts (vs 1.8%), balance plus
  15.3 (vs plus 12.4) 


Commercials now have their biggest short position (both nett and proportionate) for some time - but they have been wrong before ...  On the other hand, Small Commercials have a sizeable long position - but they are sometimes right. We'll wait for more guidance ...

Saturday 24 January 2015

COT data of Jan 20th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]



British Pounds - Total o/i 182860, spreads 2718 (1.5%).  Closing price Jan 20th 1.5145
  Nett differences:  Commercials  +66280 (from +57827)  Large Specs -45708 (from -37140)
                              Small Specs -20572 (from -20687)   

  Proportions:
 Commercials (53.1% of total o/i) - 
  71.5% of Longs (from 67.2%), 34.7% of Shorts (vs 34.3%), balance plus 36.8 (vs plus 32.9)

 Large Specs (32.3% of total) - 
  19.6% of Longs (from 23.8%), 45.0% of Shorts (vs 44.9%), balance minus 25.4 (vs minus 21.1)   

  Small Specs (14.6% of total) - 
  8.9% of Longs (from 9.0%), 20.3% of Shorts (vs 20.8%), balance minus 11.4 (vs minus 11.8) 
 
Commercials continue to go longer; Large Specs have been cutting longs. Both have left short positions almost unchanged. Small Specs remain short on balance, although with only a limited commitment. We repeat, based on these figures, the next large move appears to be up rather than down for the Pound.
 
Dollar Index: Total o/i 130077, spreads 1320 (1.0%). Closing price Jan 20th 93.33
Nett differences:  Commercials -89122 (from -87321)  Large Specs +73168 (from +71960)
                              Small Specs +15954 (from +15361)

Proportions -

Commercials (45.0% of total o/i) - 10.4% of Longs (from 11.1%), 79.6% of Shorts (vs 80.4%), balance minus 69.2 (vs minus 69.3)

Large Specs (47.0% of total) - 75.4% of Longs (from 75.2%), 18.6% of Shorts (vs 18.1%), balance plus 56.8 (vs plus 57.1) 
 Small Specs (8.0% of total) - 14.2% of Longs (from 13.7%), 1.8% of Shorts (vs 1.5%), balance plus
 12.4 (vs plus 12.2) 


Again, no significant change from previously - should mean the recent trend continues. 

Saturday 17 January 2015

COT data of Jan 13th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 178563, spreads 2543 (1.4%).  Closing price Jan 13th 1.5165
  Nett differences:  Commercials  +57827 (from +45197)  Large Specs -37140 (from -25570)
                              Small Specs -20687 (from -19627)   

  Proportions:
 Commercials (50.7% of total o/i) - 
  67.2% of Longs (from 65.2%), 34.3% of Shorts (vs 36.7%), balance plus 32.9 (vs plus 28.5)

 Large Specs (34.4% of total) - 
  23.8% of Longs (from 24.7%), 44.9% of Shorts (vs 40.8%), balance minus 21.1 (vs minus 16.1)   

  Small Specs (14.9% of total) - 
  9.0% of Longs (from 10.1%), 20.8% of Shorts (vs 22.5%), balance minus 11.8 (vs minus 12.4) 
 
With Commercials still going longer, while Small Specs hold only a small long position, conditions (surprisingly) appear to favour up rather than down for the Pound.
 
Dollar Index: Total o/i 127504, spreads 1601 (1.3%). Closing price Jan 13th 92.46

Nett differences:  Commercials -87321 (from -85162)  Large Specs +71960 (from +69786)
                              Small Specs +15361 (from +15376)

Proportions -

Commercials (45.8% of total o/i) - 11.1% of Longs (from 8.3%), 80.4% of Shorts (vs 76.6%), balance minus 69.3 (vs minus 68.3)

Large Specs (46.6% of total) - 75.2% of Longs (from 77.9%), 18.1% of Shorts (vs 21.9%), balance plus 57.1 (vs plus 56.0) 
 Small Specs (7.6% of total) - 13.7% of Longs (from 13.8%), 1.5% of Shorts (vs 1.5%), balance plus
 12.2 (vs plus 12.3) 


No significant change from previously - Large Specs continue to make money, although their overall commitment is lessening ...

Monday 12 January 2015

COT data of Jan 6th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 161876, spreads 3132 (1.9%).  Closing price Jan 6th 1.5140

  Nett differences:  Commercials  +45197 (from +36809)  Large Specs -25570 (from -19302)
                              Small Specs -19627 (from -17507)   

  Proportions:
 Commercials (50.9% of total o/i) - 
  65.2% of Longs (from 64.0%), 36.7% of Shorts (vs 37.9%), balance plus 28.5 (vs plus 26.1)

 Large Specs (32.7% of total) - 
  24.7% of Longs (from 24.8%), 40.8% of Shorts (vs 38.5%), balance minus 16.1 (vs minus 13.7)   

  Small Specs (16.4% of total) - 
  10.1% of Longs (from 11.2%), 22.5% of Shorts (vs 23.6%), balance minus 12.4 (unchanged) 
 
Commercials again added to longs more than shorts, while Small Specs appear somewhat over-committed to the short side. Some base-building would not be a surprise ... 
 
Dollar Index: Total o/i 126083, spreads 1339 (1.1%). Closing price Jan 6th 91.83

Nett differences:  Commercials -85162 (from -63413)  Large Specs +69786 (from +48833)
                              Small Specs +15376 (from +14580)

Proportions -

Commercials (42.4% of total o/i) - 8.3% of Longs (from 7.4%), 76.6% of Shorts (vs 67.5%), balance minus 68.3 (vs minus 60.1)

Large Specs (49.9% of total) - 77.9% of Longs (from 77.4%), 21.9% of Shorts (vs 31.1%), balance plus 56.0 (vs plus 46.3) 
 Small Specs (7.7% of total) - 13.8% of Longs (from 15.2%), 1.5% of Shorts (vs 1.4%), balance plus
 12.3 (vs plus 13.8) 


Large Specs appear excessively long, Commercials appear excessively short - any downmove from here could be a) abrupt, or b) long-lasting - or c) both ...

Tuesday 6 January 2015

COT data of Dec 30th 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 143660, spreads 2523 (1.8%).  Closing price Dec 30th 1.5560

  Nett differences:  Commercials  +36809 (from +31582)  Large Specs -19302 (from -15233)
                              Small Specs -17507 (from -16349)
  
  Proportions:
 Commercials (50.9% of total o/i) - 
  64.0% of Longs (from 51.9%), 37.9% of Shorts (vs 39.1%), balance plus 26.1 (vs plus 22.8)
 Large Specs (31.7% of total) - 
  24.8% of Longs (from 26.4%), 38.5% of Shorts (vs 37.4%), balance minus 13.7 (vs minus 11.0)   
  Small Specs (17.4% of total) - 
  11.2% of Longs (from 11.7%), 23.6% of Shorts (vs 23.5%), balance minus 12.4 (vs minus 11.8) 
 
Not much change, with holidays interrupting decision-making.
 
Dollar Index: Total o/i 106538, spreads 1118 (1.0%). Closing price Dec 30th 90.29

Nett differences:  Commercials -63413 (from -61327)  Large Specs +48833 (from +47932)
                              Small Specs +14580 (from +13395)
Proportions -
Commercials (37.5% of total o/i) - 7.4% of Longs (from 9.6%), 67.5% of Shorts (vs 75.5%), balance minus 60.1 (vs minus 65.9)
Large Specs (54.2% of total) - 77.4% of Longs (from 74.7%), 31.1% of Shorts (vs 23.2%), balance plus 46.3 (vs plus 51.5) 
 Small Specs (8.3% of total) - 15.2% of Longs (from 15.7%), 1.4% of Shorts (vs 1.3%), balance plus 
 13.8 (vs plus 14.4)

Even the Large Specs seem undecided, adding considerably to both longs and (more particularly) shorts ...

Friday 2 January 2015

COT data of Dec 30th 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

CFTC will not be publishing next COT figures until Monday Jan 5th (due to the New Year holiday),
so figures and comments will be unavailable until Tuesday or Wednesday ...