Sunday, 20 March 2011

COT basis March 15th 2011

GOLD total open interest down, but not much - spreads ditto, at 6.2% of the total (versus 6.3% previously). Commercials added to longs, and now hold 35.4% of the total long position; they also reduced their shorts, taking their share of the total down to 81.6%. Their net is minus 46.2, noticeably down from last week's 51.2. Small Specs reduced longs and added to shorts - long share 14.1% (from 15.9), and short share 4.5% (from 4.2), giving a net of plus 9.6. Big Specs reduced longs (50.5%, from 52.4), and (proportionately) added to shorts (13.9%, from 12.9), leaving them nett positive 36.6 (from 39.5). Commercials appear to be looking for higher prices.

Mini S&P nett positions show Commercials minus 1.2 (from plus 0.1), Big Specs plus 6.5 (a major increase from plus 2.9), and Small Specs minus 5.3 (from minus 3.0). Spreads were considerably higher - not surprisingly, in these doubtful times. Small Specs' share of the total O/I is higher than usual, suggesting possibly erratic movements.

BP total was sharply lower, as March went off the board. Commercials reduced longs, but added to their share of the total, at 42.5% (from 33.6); they also reduced their share of shorts from 67.4% to 51.2%, making them on balance short 8.7 (from 33.8). Big Specs reduced their proportionate longs, from 38.5% to 29.1%, and added to proportionate shorts, at 29.3% (from 14.7%) - their nett has moved to minus 0.2, from plus 23.8. Small Specs didn't change much, with their nett plus 8.9 (from plus 10.0), but both Commercials and Big Specs are betting against them.

EUROS also reflected March liquidation, with spreads sharply lower as well. Nett positions were: Commercials minus 33.7 (from minus 29.4), Big Specs plus 24.5 (from plus 24.6), and Small Specs plus 9.2 (from plus 4.8) - this latter might provide a warning sign for Euro bulls.

Wednesday, 9 March 2011

COT basis March 1st 2011

GOLD total open interest up again - spreads ditto, at 5.4% (versus 4.7% previously). Commercials reduced their longs, now holding 32.0% of the total long position, but added noticeably to shorts, with their share of the total up to 83.3%. Their net is minus 51.3, the largest since mid-Dec. Small Specs reduced both longs and shorts, but not significantly - long share 15.2% (from 15.4), and short share 4.3% (from 4.6), giving a net of plus 10.9. Big Specs added to longs (52.8%), while reducing shorts considerably (12.4%), leaving them nett positive 40.4 (from 37.7). Overall, nothing very dramatic, but indicating a lessening of bullish conviction from the Commercials.

Mini S&P nett positions show Commercials minus 0.4 (from plus 1.0), Big Specs plus 2.0 (unchanged), and Small Specs minus 1.6 (from minus 3.0). Spreads were down. Hard to find any signals in these figures.

BP showed a couple of major changes - Commercials reduced shorts from 68.6% to 61.8% while retaining their longs (nett now minus 31.1, from minus 38.1), and Big Specs added to their shorts, now holding 20.9% of the total (making them nett long 20.5, compared to 29.2 last week). Small Specs went slightly longer, (now nett plus 10.6, from plus 9.0). Commercials' positions suggest continued confidence in Pound strength.

EUROS were less positive - nett: Commercials minus 29.7 (from minus 26.4), Big Specs plus 24.1 (from plus 22.3), and Small Specs plus 5.6 (from plus 4.1). Commercials continue to reduce longs and add to shorts (31.3%, from 33.7%, and 61.0%, from 60.1% respectively), and seem happy to sell the rally.

Wednesday, 2 March 2011

COT basis Feb 22

GOLD total open interest continues to rise, as does the spread position, although that remains comparatively low (4.7% against previous 4.5%, and normal 10-13%). Commercials have begun to add to longs, but only hold 33.0% of the total long position - they still appear to be adding more to shorts, although their share of the total is almost unchanged, at 81.5% (nett minus 48.5). Small Specs have added to their share of longs (15.4%), and reduced their share of shorts (4.6%), giving a net of plus 10.8. Big Specs added to longs (51.6%), but also added to shorts (32.8%), leaving them nett positive 37.7. Proportionately, still not very exciting.

Mini S&P nett positions show Commercials plus 1.0, Big Specs plus 2.0,and Small Specs - the biggest change - minus 3.0. Potentially a little bullish. However, Commercials reduced both longs and shorts, and spreads increased, both of which are indicative of doubt.

BP continued in the same direction as previously, contrary to a week ago - Commercials added disproportionately to longs (30.5% of the total, from 21.6%), and reduced shorts (68.6%, from 71.7%), but remained overall short (nett minus 38.1, from minus 50.1). Big Specs held 43.0% of the total longs (well down on the week), but their shorts were barely changed (at 13.8%, compared to 12.3%). This put their nett at plus 29.2, versus 39.6 the previous week. Small Specs again generally reduced commitments, while staying nett long (plus 9.0, versus plus 10.5). Commercials' activity suggests a steadier Pound, softer Dollar.

EUROS were less positive - nett: Commercials minus 26.4 (from minus 22.3), Big Specs plus 22.3 (from plus 17.1), and Small Specs plus 4.1 (from plus 5.2). Small Specs hold 26.3% of the total open interest, but seem very undecided as to direction - Commercials (with 46.9% of the total, and nett short) appear to offer the best guidance.