Tuesday 31 December 2013

COT data of Dec 24th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  198063; spreads 2553 (= 1.3%). Closing price on Dec 24th: 1.6355

Nett differences:
Commercials -34332 (from -33548)  Large Specs +14420 (from +17825)  Small Specs +19912 (from +15723)
 

Proportions:
Commercials (57.2% of total o/i) - 48.4% of Longs, 66.0% of Shorts, balance minus 17.6
Large Specs (28.3% of total) - 32.0% of Longs, 24.6% of Shorts, balance plus 7.4
Small Specs (14.5% of total) - 19.6% of Longs, 9.4% of Shorts, balance plus 10.2
 
Very little change in Commercials, and only a slight change in Large Specs as they (comparatively) reduced longs and added to shorts. The main difference was in Small Specs whose long position seems to be becoming rather excessive;  on this basis we could expect any fall, once it starts, to be quite abrupt. 

Friday 27 December 2013

Figures delayed by holidays ...

Please note, COT figures will not be published by the CFTC until Monday evening  ....

Saturday 21 December 2013

COT data of Dec 17th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  191648; spreads 2508 (= 1.3%). Closing price on Dec 17th: 1.6270

Nett differences:
Commercials -33548 (from -36501)  Large Specs +17825 (from +18429)  Small Specs +15723 (from +18072)
 

Proportions:
Commercials (57.5% of total o/i) - 48.6% of Longs, 66.4% of Shorts, balance minus 17.7
Large Specs (28.2% of total) - 32.9% of Longs, 23.5% of Shorts, balance plus 9.4
Small Specs (14.3% of total) - 18.5% of Longs, 10.1% of Shorts, balance plus 8.3

In spite of the sharp reduction in total o/i as the Dec position moved off the board, there was little change in the nett differences. However, proportionately, Commercials reduced their total commitments while adding to their minus balance. This is now at its highest since January; the previous large minus balance was basis Oct 22nd - note that prices fell from both January and the October date. Large and Small Specs both added to longs more than to shorts, and the outlook remains - it appears that the pound will move more easily down than up. 
 

Saturday 14 December 2013

COT data of Dec 10th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  255604; spreads 6350 (= 2.5%). Closing price on Dec 10th: 1.6445

Nett differences:
Commercials -36501 (from -35420)  Large Specs +18429 (from +18369)  Small Specs +18072 (from +17051)
 

Proportions:
Commercials (62.4% of total o/i) - 55.1% of Longs, 69.7% of Shorts, balance minus 14.6
Large Specs (24.8% of total) - 28.5% of Longs, 21.1% of Shorts, balance plus 7.4
Small Specs (12.8% of total) - 16.4% of Longs, 9.2% of Shorts, balance plus 7.2 

Not a great deal of guidance this week, with Commercials a little less short (proportionately), but still taking the short side overall. They have increased their share of the total open interest, so their position may be increasingly significant. Specs - both Large and Small - have reduced their commitments, but not changed their outlook. On balance, it appears that the pound will move more easily down than up.

Saturday 7 December 2013

COT data of Dec 3rd 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  239371; spreads 4039 (= 1.7%). Closing price on Dec 3rd: 1.6395 


Nett differences:
Commercials -35420 (from -12044)  Large Specs +18369 (from +391)  Small Specs +17051 (from +11653)
 

Proportions:
Commercials (59.1% of total o/i) - 51.6% of Longs, 66.6% of Shorts, balance minus 15.0
Large Specs (27.5% of total) - 31.4% of Longs, 23.6% of Shorts, balance plus 7.8
Small Specs (13.4% of total) - 17.0% of Longs, 9.8% of Shorts, balance plus 7.2 


Friday 6 December 2013

COT data of Nov 26th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  214443; spreads 3926 (= 1.8%). Closing price on Nov 26th: 1.6215
 

Nett differences:
Commercials -12044 (from -8095)  Large Specs +391 (from -1665)  Small Specs +11653 (from +9760)
 

Proportions:

Commercials (58.9% of total o/i) - 56.1% of Longs, 61.8% of Shorts, balance minus5.7
Large Specs (27.0% of total) - 27.1% of Longs, 26.9% of Shorts, balance plus 0.2
Small Specs (14.1% of total) - 16.8% of Longs, 11.3% of Shorts, balance plus 5.5


Thursday 5 December 2013

COT data of Nov 19th 2013 - British Pound [BP]


British Pounds - Total o/i  183449; spreads 3818 (= 2.1%). Closing price on Nov 19th: 1.6120


Nett differences:

Commercials -8095 (from +1432)  Large Specs -1665 (from -9303)  Small Specs +9760 (from +7871)

Proportions:

Commercials (54.3% of total o/i) - 52.0% of Longs, 56.5% of Shorts, balance minus 4.5
Large Specs (30.4% of total) - 29.9% of Longs, 30.8% of Shorts, balance minus 0.9
Small Specs (15.3% of total) - 18.0% of Longs, 12.6% of Shorts, balance plus 5.4

Saturday 16 November 2013

COT data of Nov 12th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  171002; spreads 3421 (= 2.0%). Closing price on Nov 12th: 1.5905


Nett differences:

Commercials +1432 (from -8373)  Large Specs -9303 (from -2392)  Small Specs +7871 (from +10765)

Proportions:

Commercials (54.1% of total o/i) - 54.5% of Longs, 53.7% of Shorts, balance plus 0.8
Large Specs (29.0% of total) - 26.2% of Longs, 31.7% of Shorts, balance minus 5.5
Small Specs (16.9% of total) - 19.3% of Longs, 14.6% of Shorts, balance plus 4.7


Once again, Commercials have moved longer (indeed, to a nett long position, for the first time since mid-September); this time however they have added considerably to Longs while slightly reducing their Shorts. Large Specs have increased their nett Short by reducing Longs sharply while leaving Shorts unchanged. Small Specs have reduced their overall commitment, and are likely to be less of a factor in the short term. It appears that Commercials may be being influenced by the more bullish Fundamentals on Sterling, with these COT figures showing some bias to the upside. 

Please note - no report next weekend - back early December ... 

Saturday 9 November 2013

COT data of Nov 5th 2013 - British Pound [BP]


British Pounds - Total o/i  172368; spreads 3343 (= 1.9%). Closing price on Nov 5th: 1.6045


Nett differences:

Commercials -8373 (from -21936)  Large Specs -2392 (from +10162)  Small Specs +10765 (from +11774)


Proportions:

Commercials (51.3% of total o/i) - 48.8% of Longs, 53.8% of Shorts, balance minus 5.0

Large Specs (31.0% of total) - 30.3% of Longs, 31.7% of Shorts, balance minus 1.4
Small Specs (17.7% of total) - 20.9% of Longs, 14.5% of Shorts, balance plus 6.4  

Proportionally, Commercials have added slightly to Longs while reducing Shorts considerably. Large Specs have moved from nett long to nett short by both reducing Longs and adding to Shorts. Small Specs have changed little, but now find themselves holding all the Longs while faced with a combination of Commercials and Large Specs (both normally well capitalised) on the short side. If the market starts to slip, the move could be accelerated by this situation.

Thursday 7 November 2013

COT data of Oct 29th 2013 - British Pound [BP]


British Pounds - Total o/i  177427; spreads 3639 (= 2.1%). Closing price on Oct 29th: 1.6045
 

Nett differences:
Commercials -21936 (from -27976)  Large Specs +10162 (from +14262)  Small Specs +11774 (from +13714)



Proportions: 

Commercials (52.6% of total o/i) - 46.3% of Longs, 58.9% of Shorts, balance minus 12.6

Large Specs (30.3% of total) - 33.2% of Longs, 27.4% of Shorts, balance plus 5.8
Small Specs (17.1% of total) - 20.5% of Longs, 13.7% of Shorts, balance plus 6.8  

[Updated for reference purposes - CFTC should be up to date this Friday night, Nov 8]

Saturday 2 November 2013

COT data of Oct 22nd 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  181489; spreads 3688 (= 2.0%). Closing price on Oct 22nd: 1.6235
 
Nett differences:
Commercials -27976 (from -22978)  Large Specs +14262 (from +12231)  Small Specs +13714 (from +10747)

Proportions: 
Commercials (52.7% of total o/i) - 44.9% of Longs, 60.6% of Shorts, balance minus 15.7
Large Specs (29.4% of total) - 33.4% of Longs, 25.4% of Shorts, balance plus 8.0
Small Specs (17.9% of total) - 21.7% of Longs, 14.0% of Shorts, balance plus 7.7  

[Updated for reference purposes]

Wednesday 30 October 2013

COT data of Oct 15th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  183979; spreads 4102 (= 2.2%). Closing price on Oct 15th: 1.5990
Nett differences:
Commercials -22978 (from -20998)  Large Specs +12231 (from +8771)  Small Specs +10747 (from +12227)

Proportions: 
Commercials (52.9% of total o/i) - 46.5% of Longs, 59.3% of Shorts, balance minus 12.8
Large Specs (30.0% of total) - 33.4% of Longs, 26.6% of Shorts, balance plus 6.8
Small Specs (17.1% of total) - 20.1% of Longs, 14.1% of Shorts, balance plus 6.0 

[Updated for reference purposes - but note that Small Specs were apparently knocked out of some of their longs on the decline ... ]

Tuesday 29 October 2013

COT data of Oct 8th 2013 - British Pound [BP]


British Pounds - Total o/i  184643; spreads 4017 (= 2.2%). Closing price on Oct 8th: 1.6085

Nett differences:
Commercials -20998 (from -14773)  Large Specs +8771 (from +1496)  Small Specs +12227 (from 13277)
 

Proportions: 

Commercials (52.6% of total o/i) - 46.7% of Longs, 58.3% of Shorts, balance minus 11.6

Large Specs (30.0% of total) - 32.5% of Longs, 27.7% of Shorts, balance plus 4.8
Small Specs (17.4% of total) - 20.8% of Longs, 14.0% of Shorts, balance plus 6.8 

[Updated for reference purposes]

COT data of Oct 1st 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  172422; spreads 3840 (= 2.2%). Closing price on Oct 1st: 1.6195

Nett differences:
Commercials -14773 (from -12372)  Large Specs +1496 (from 1174)  Small Specs +13277 (from 11198)
 

Proportions: 

Commercials (52.6% of total o/i) - 48.1% of Longs, 56.9% of Shorts, balance minus 8.8

Large Specs (27.6% of total) - 28.1% of Longs, 27.2% of Shorts, balance plus 0.9
Small Specs (19.8% of total) - 23.8% of Longs, 15.9% of Shorts, balance plus 7.9 

[Updated for reference purposes]

COT data of Sep 24th 2013 - British Pound [BP]


British Pounds - Total o/i  163719; spreads 3432 (= 2.1%). Closing price on Sep 24th: 1.6005



Nett differences:

Commercials -12372 (from -2655)  Large Specs +1174 (from -6310).  Small Specs +11198 (from +8965)
 


Proportions:  

Commercials (48.7% of total o/i) - 44.9% of Longs, 52.6% of Shorts, balance minus 7.7

Large Specs (31.3% of total) - 31.6% of Longs, 30.9% of Shorts, balance plus 0.7
Small Specs (20.0% of total) - 23.5% of Longs, 16.5% of Shorts, balance plus 7.0 

[Updated for reference purposes]

Wednesday 23 October 2013

CFTC Announcement, re C O T ...

Special Announcement

The Commitments of Traders reports previously scheduled for release on October 18th will not be published this week.

Saturday 21 September 2013

COT data of Sep 17th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  141735; spreads 2811 (= 2.0%). Closing price on Sep 17th: 1.5905
The switch of trading months did indeed affect Spread numbers - they have reverted to more normal levels.  

Nett differences:
Commercials -2655 (from +36534)  Large Specs -6310 (from -38166).  Small Specs +8965 (from +1632)
 
Proportions:  
Commercials (43.7% of total o/i) - 42.8% of Longs, 44.7% of Shorts, balance minus 2655
Large Specs (34.0% of total) - 31.8% of Longs, 36.3% of Shorts, balance minus 4.5
Small Specs (22.3% of total) - 25.4% of Longs, 19.0% of Shorts, balance plus 6.4 
 
These figures reflect the position last Tuesday ev ening, before the Fed surprised markets by leaving QE at unchanged levels, and much alteration has probably taken place since then. However, based on these figures, it is notable that Commercials had reduced their longs massively, in addition to cutting shorts, while Small Specs added to longs and reduced shorts. With Small Specs holding over 22% of the total open position, choppy trading was to be expected. Our medium term attitude remains - Commercials have been taking advantage of higher prices to sell, and Small Specs are unduly long.

Saturday 14 September 2013

COT data of Sep 10th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  185433; spreads 8899 (= 4.8%). Closing price on Sep 10th: 1.5735 
The switch of trading months probably affected Spread numbers - they should settle down shortly. 

Nett differences:
Commercials +36534 (from +47998)  Large Specs -38166 (from -43046).  Small Specs +1632 (from -4952)
 
Proportions:  
Commercials (53.5% of total o/i) - 63.8% of Longs, 43.1% of Shorts, balance plus 20.7
Large Specs (29.4% of total) - 18.7% of Longs, 40.3% of Shorts, balance minus 21.6
Small Specs (17.1% of total) - 17.5% of Longs, 16.6% of Shorts, balance plus 0.9 
 
Prices broke up from the recent range, and have continued higher since then. Commercials added to longs, but much more to shorts, as shown quite distinctly in the 'proportion' figures. They also increased their share of the total o/i once again. Small Specs increased longs considerably, but basically left shorts alone. This had the effect of moving them to nett long - not usually a constructive sign. As with Gold recently, Commercials have been taking advantage of higher prices to sell - and we can see what happened to Gold prices. 

Saturday 7 September 2013

COT data of Sep 3rd 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  156870; spreads 3928 (= 2.5%). Closing price on Sep 3rd: 1.5560

Nett differences:
Commercials +47998 (from +43762)  Large Specs -43046 (from -38226).  Small Specs -4952 (from -5536).
 
Proportions:  
Commercials (50.9% of total o/i) - 66.6% of Longs, 35.2% of Shorts, balance plus 31.4
Large Specs (32.3% of total) - 18.3% of Longs, 46.4% of Shorts, balance minus 28.1
Small Specs (16.8% of total) - 15.1% of Longs, 18.4% of Shorts, balance minus 3.3
 
Prices have generally remained inside the recent range of 1.55 to 1.57. Commercials added to longs and to shorts, increasing their share of the total o/i, but not changing their proportions much. Small Specs reduced both longs and shorts, again with not much change to proprtionate holdings. There is thus no significant change to suggest which direction the ultimate beakout will take, although Commercials remain less long than they might be.

Saturday 31 August 2013

COT data of Aug 27th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  149328; spreads 3858 (= 2.6%). Closing price on Aug 27th: 1.5545

Nett differences:
Commercials +43762 (from +40931)  Large Specs -38226 (from -39522).  Small Specs -5536 (from -1409).
 
Proportions:  
Commercials (47.4% of total o/i) - 62.4% of Longs, 32.3% of Shorts, balance plus 30.1
Large Specs (33.8% of total) - 20.6% of Longs, 46.9% of Shorts, balance minus 26.3
Small Specs (18.8% of total) - 17.0% of Longs, 20.8% of Shorts, balance minus 3.8
 
Prices have fallen, but only slightly. Commercials added to longs, but added slightly more to shorts, moving towards a more normal share of the (increased) total open interest. Small Specs reduced longs and added to shorts, but not to a significant extent. These figures suggest, if anything, that the current minor downtrend should continue.

Saturday 24 August 2013

COT data of Aug 20th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  138505; spreads 3772 (= 2.7%). Closing price on Aug 20th: 1.5670

Nett differences:
Commercials +40931 (from +55820)  Large Specs -39522 (from -46521).  Small Specs -1409 (from -9299).
 
Proportions:  
Commercials (46.1% of total o/i) - 61.3% of Longs, 30.9% of Shorts, balance plus 30.4
Large Specs (34.7% of total) - 20.0% of Longs, 49.3% of Shorts, balance minus 29.3
Small Specs (19.2% of total) - 18.7% of Longs, 19.8% of Shorts, balance minus 1.1
 
Prices moved higher initially, but fell after reaching a technical target at 1.5700 (actual high was around 1.5720). Small Specs were sucked in, adding to longs while cutting a few shorts, while Commercials liquidated longs on the rally (although they didn't add to shorts). The last time Small Specs reduced shorts to this sort of level (both outright, and proportionately), on June 18th, prices started falling, and there seems no reason why values should not fall from here this time also.

Saturday 17 August 2013

COT data of Aug 13th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  145126; spreads 3314 (= 2.3%). 

Nett differences:
Commercials +55820 (from +56196)  Large Specs -46521 (from -46033).  Small Specs -9299 (from -10163). 
Proportions:  
Commercials (50.8% of total o/i) - 70.5% of Longs, 31.1% of Shorts, balance plus 39.4
Large Specs (32.1% of total) - 15.7% of Longs, 48.5% of Shorts, balance minus 32.8
Small Specs (17.1% of total) - 13.8% of Longs, 20.4% of Shorts, balance minus 6.6
 
Prices once again moved erratically higher, but there was extremely little change in any of the running positions - with Commercials holding the same nett balance of plus 39.4, and Small Specs adding to longs and reducing shorts, both to a tiny extent (thus overall reducing their nett shorts marginally), there is little to say except that we remain less than positive on the Pound.

Saturday 10 August 2013

COT data of Aug 6th 2013 - British Pound [BP]



British Pounds - Total o/i  145387; spreads 2929 (= 2.0%). 
Nett differences:
Commercials +56196 (from +62370)  Large Specs -46033 (from -49463).  Small Specs -10163 (from -12907). 

Proportions:  
Commercials (51.2% of total o/i) - 70.9% of Longs, 31.5% of Shorts, balance plus 39.4
Large Specs (31.7% of total) - 15.5% of Longs, 47.8% of Shorts, balance minus 32.3
Small Specs (17.1% of total) - 13.6% of Longs, 20.7% of Shorts, balance minus 7.1
 
Prices moved erratically higher, but the Open Position changes by last Tuesday suggest that the current rally may not have much further to go - Small Specs (our normally contrarian indicator) have added to longs,  while the previous week they had been reducing shorts, and Commercials (who we tend to follow in this market) have reduced longs considerably while also adding slightly to shorts. On this basis, we are becoming less positive on the Pound.

Saturday 3 August 2013

COT data of July 30th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  146335; spreads 3037 (= 2.1%).  

Nett differences:
Commercials +62370 (from +66356).  Large Specs -49463 (from -49653).  Small Specs -12907 (from -16703). 
Proportions:  
Commercials (52.3% of total o/i) - 74.1% of Longs, 30.6% of Shorts, balance plus 43.5
Large Specs (31.3% of total) - 14.1% of Longs, 48.6% of Shorts, balance minus 34.5
Small Specs (16.4% of total) - 11.8% of Longs, 20.8% of Shorts, balance minus 9.0
 
Prices by last Tuesday's close had dropped to 1.5240, and have remained erratic since then, with the latest close around 1.53 (after 1.51). With very little change showing in most holdings - the decline in Small Specs' shorts being probably the most significant - and with Commercials remaining quite long, we can only repeat last week's comment - with no excesses showing, these figures suggest the Pound should remain steady, but unexcitingly so - in the medium term, that is - in the short term, the spread of positions held suggests continued choppy moves.

Sunday 28 July 2013

COT data of July 23rd 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  148065; spreads 2591 (= 1.8%). 

Nett differences:
Commercials +66356 (from +60256).  Large Specs -49653 (from -37446).  Small Specs -16703 (from -22810).

Proportions:  
Commercials (52.1% of total o/i) - 74.9% of Longs, 29.3% of Shorts, balance plus 45.6
Large Specs (30.2% of total) - 13.2% of Longs, 47.3% of Shorts, balance minus 34.1
Small Specs (17.7% of total) - 11.9% of Longs, 23.4% of Shorts, balance minus 11.5
 
Prices at last Tuesday's close were higher again, at around 1.5370 (and have fluctuated around that level since then). Commercials stayed with their long positions, but reduced shorts, moving longer overall both on nett and proportional figures. Small Specs added to longs and reduced shorts, but not excessively, leaving their positions moderate in every sense. With no excesses showing, these figures suggest the Pound should remain steady, but unexcitingly so.

Sunday 21 July 2013

COT data of July 16th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  151127; spreads 3869 (= 2.6%).   

Nett differences:
Commercials +60256 (from +55108).  Large Specs -37446 (from -34259).  Small Specs -22810 (from -20849).

Proportions:  
Commercials (52.9% of total o/i) - 73.4% of Longs, 32.5% of Shorts, balance plus 40.9
Large Specs (29.4% of total) - 16.7% of Longs, 42.1% of Shorts, balance minus 25.4
Small Specs (17.7% of total) - 9.9% of Longs, 25.4% of Shorts, balance minus 15.5
 
Prices had improved by last Tuesday's close to around 1.5160, and have improved further since then. Once again, position moves of the previous week continued, with Commercials adding considerably to their longs, but this time adding to shorts as well. Even taking this into account, on balance they moved longer. Small Specs reduced their longs while maintaining shorts. We can only repeat last week's comment: these figures continue to
suggest further improvement by the Pound against the Dollar.

Saturday 13 July 2013

COT data of July 9th 2013 - British Pound [BP]


British Pounds - Total o/i  145033; spreads 3074 (= 2.1%). 

Nett differences:
Commercials +55108 (from +46553).  Large Specs -34259 (from -31324).  Small Specs -20849 (from -15229).

Proportions:  
Commercials (46.6% of total o/i) - 66.0% of Longs, 27.2% of Shorts, balance plus 38.8
Large Specs (34.1% of total) - 22.1% of Longs, 46.2% of Shorts, balance minus 24.1
Small Specs (19.3% of total) - 11.9% of Longs, 26.6% of Shorts, balance minus 14.7
 
Prices at last Tuesday's close (when these positions were noted) were low, at around 1.4865. Since then, the Pound has improved to nearer 1.52 before falling back towards 1.51. Position moves of the previous week have continued, with Commercials adding considerably to their longs (although they also added [less] to shorts); on balance, they moved longer. Small Specs added to shorts. These figures continue to
suggest further improvement by the Pound against the Dollar. 

Wednesday 10 July 2013

COT data of July 2nd 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  131817; spreads 2674 (= 2.0%). Total o/i is picking up, but still on the low side.

Nett differences:

Commercials +46553 (from +21781).  Large Specs -31324 (from -19429).  Small Specs -15229 (from -2352).

Proportions:  
Commercials (43.6% of total o/i) - 61.7% of Longs, 25.6% of Shorts, balance plus 36.1
Large Specs (37.4% of total) - 25.2% of Longs, 49.5% of Shorts, balance minus 24.3
Small Specs (19.0% of total) - 13.1% of Longs, 24.9% of Shorts, balance minus 11.8
 
Prices have continued to fall, but - in spite of what seem to be very good reasons for this to continue - Commercials have started to add to longs and reduce shorts. Small Specs (our contrarian indicator) have done the reverse. Based on these figures, the one-way trend is not as clear cut as previously, and  
we would not over-commit on the short side.

Sunday 30 June 2013

COT data of June 25th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  123602; spreads 2643 - total is still very low. .

Nett differences:
Commercials +21781 (from +22615).  Large Specs -19429 (from -20406).  Small Specs -2352 (from -2209).  Indecision/lack of commitment continues. 

Proportions:  
Commercials (43.2% of total o/i) - 52.2% of Longs, 34.2% of Shorts, balance plus 18.0
Large Specs (36.5% of total) - 28.5% of Longs, 44.5% of Shorts, balance minus16.0
Small Specs (20.3% of total) - 19.3% of Longs, 21.3% of Shorts, balance minus 2.0
 
The price trend has continued downwards, and based on these figures looks set to continue - however, there is still a comparative lack of enthusiasm from the bull or bear camp - we still wait before committing.

Saturday 22 June 2013

COT data of June 18th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  140550 (from 219176); spreads 1886 (from 21274) - the switch of the spot month still seems to be creating mayhem, but the situation should settle down within the next couple of weeks.

Nett differences:

Commercials +22615 (from +66046).  Large Specs -20406 (from -53687).  Small Specs -2209 (from -12359).  The change in Commercials' positions from 2 or 3 weeks ago, when they were nett long over 100,000 contracts, demonstrates the importance of the "proportional" approach.

Proportions:  
Commercials (40.2% of total o/i) - 48.3% of Longs, 32.0% of Shorts, balance plus 16.3
Large Specs (41.5% of total) - 34.2% of Longs, 48.9% of Shorts, balance minus14.7
Small Specs (18.3% of total) - 17.5% of Longs, 19.1% of Shorts, balance minus 1.6

As the best signals are given at times of extremes - of optimism or pessimism - among the classes of participants, and as this time around there are no extremes, we shall wait before committing. 

Saturday 15 June 2013

COT data of June 11th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  219176; spreads 21274 - around 9.7% of the total. Either the figures are wrong, or the switch of months is creating mayhem (although last quarter, in mid-March, the figure also jumped - albeit only from 2.0% to 6.1%) - either way, we prefer to draw no conclusions.

Nett differences:
Commercials +66046 (from +101828).  Large Specs -53687 (from -77738).  Small Specs -12359 (from -24090).

Proportions:  
Commercials (56.0% of total o/i) - 72.6% of Longs, 39.3% of Shorts, balance plus 33.3
Large Specs (30.1% of total) - 16.6% of Longs, 43.7% of Shorts, balance minus 27.1
Small Specs (13.9% of total) - 10.8% of Longs, 17.0% of Shorts, balance minus 6.2

Even though the switch to June as the spot month may be confusing, the figures appear to show that Commercials believe the recent advance has run its course. We shall be looking for signals to sell 
rather than to buy.

Sunday 9 June 2013

COT data of June 4th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  210499; spreads 3511 - up to around 1.7% of the total, possibly as a result of the switch of spot trading month.

Nett differences:

Commercials +101828 (from +101363).  Large Specs -77738 (from -74525).  Small Specs -24090 (from -26838).

Proportions:  
Commercials (55.2% of total o/i) - 79.8% of Longs, 30.6% of Shorts, balance plus 49.2
Large Specs (31.7% of total) - 12.9% of Longs, 50.5% of Shorts, balance minus 37.6
Small Specs (13.1% of total) - 7.3% of Longs, 18.9% of Shorts, balance minus 11.6

Although the direction remains the same as previously, the fact that open positions are being affected by the spot June position going off the board, taken together with the major change in prices since the figures were collected last Tuesday (spot moved up to around 1.57 from nearer 1.53, before falling back slightly), makes any conclusion more uncertain than usual. However, for the time being we have to stay with the trend; based on these figures, it still seems likely that Sterling will strengthen against the Dollar. 

Saturday 1 June 2013

COT data of May 28th 2013 - British Pound [BP]


British Pounds - Total o/i  221612; spreads 2727 - again around 1.2% of the total.

Nett differences:
Commercials +101363 (from +103998).  Large Specs -74525 (from -76976).  Small Specs -26838 (from -27022).

Proportions:  
Commercials (52.7% of total o/i) - 75.8% of Longs, 29.5% of Shorts, balance plus 46.3
Large Specs (33.6% of total) - 16.6% of Longs, 50.6% of Shorts, balance minus 34.0
Small Specs (13.7% of total) - 7.6% of Longs, 19.9% of Shorts, balance minus 12.3

Rather less commitment this week compared to last, although the direction remains the same - based on these figures, it still seems likely that Sterling will strengthen against the Dollar - but we wouldn't bet the farm on it.

Saturday 25 May 2013

COT data of May 21st 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  211098, from 198068; spreads 2548 - around 1.2% of the total. As we have said previously, a large number of open spreads suggests indecision, while a low number (such as this) suggests definite commitment.

Nett differences:
Commercials +103998 (from +85169).  Large Specs -76976 (from -65355).  Small Specs -27022 (from -19814).

Proportions:  
Commercials (51.5% of total o/i) - 76.4% of Longs, 26.6% of Shorts, balance plus 49.8
Large Specs (34.5% of total) - 16.0% of Longs, 52.9% of Shorts, balance minus 36.9
Small Specs (14.0% of total) - 7.6% of Longs, 20.5% of Shorts, balance minus 12.9

Last week we suggested that it might be best to wait until more commitment was shown by either Commercials or Small Specs - or both. This week we have that commitment - Commercials (the class we like to follow) have gone longer, both outright and proportionately, while Small Specs (the class we like to shade) have gone shorter. Large Specs are with the current trend, cutting longs and (slightly) adding to shorts as the market eases. Based on these figures, it seems likely that Sterling will strengthen against the Dollar.

Tuesday 21 May 2013

COT data of May 14th 2013 - British Pound [BP]


British Pounds - Total o/i  198068, spreads 3025 - around 1.5% of the total.

Nett differences:

Commercials +85169 (from +85429).  Large Specs -65355 (from -63086).  Small Specs -19814 (from -22343).

Proportions:  
Commercials (49.8% of total o/i) - 71.6% of Longs, 28.0% of Shorts, balance plus 43.6
Large Specs (35.7% of total) - 19.0% of Longs, 52.5% of Shorts, balance minus 33.5
Small Specs (14.5% of total) - 9.4% of Longs, 19.5% of Shorts, balance minus 10.1

With few extremes showing, the most significant change seems to be the increased share of total o/i held by the Large Specs - as this is the position that we find least helpful to follow, it might be best to wait until more commitment is shown by either Commercials or Small Specs - or both.

COT data of May 7th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  1907871, spreads 2703 - around 1.4% of the total.


Nett differences:
Commercials +85429 (from +73632).  Large Specs -63086 (from -58607).  Small Specs -22343 (from -15025).
Proportions:  
Commercials (50.9% of total o/i) - 73.6% of Longs, 28.2% of Shorts, balance plus 45.4 (from plus 39.6)
Large Specs (33.5% of total) - 16.8% of Longs, 50.3% of Shorts, balance minus 33.5
Small Specs (15.6% of total) - 9.6% of Longs, 21.5% of Shorts, balance minus 11.9

Most of the previous week's big changes were cancelled out, as participants moved back to more 'normal' holdings.

COT data of April 30th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  189084, spreads 3252 - around 1.7% of the total.
Nett differences:
Commercials +73632 (from +88913).  Large Specs -58607 (from -60112).  Small Specs -15025 (from -28801 - big change!).
Proportions:  
Commercials (52.2% of total o/i) - 72.1% of Longs, 32.5% of Shorts, balance plus 39.6 (from plus 45.1)
Large Specs (32.5% of total) - 16.7% of Longs, 48.2% of Shorts, balance minus 31.5
Small Specs (15.3% of total) - 11.2% of Longs, 19.3% of Shorts, balance minus 8.1 (from minus 14.6)

In retrospect, it looks like Small Specs covered their shorts at or near the top of the market, while Commercials tok advantage of the rise to take profits on their longs.

Thursday 2 May 2013

COT data of April 23rd 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  199465, spreads 2487 - around 1.2% of the total.

Nett differences:
Commercials +88913 (from +86801).  Large Specs -60112 (from -61975).  Small Specs -28801 (from -24826).

Proportions:  
Commercials (52.7% of total o/i) - 75.3% of Longs, 30.2% of Shorts, balance plus 45.1
Large Specs (32.5% of total) - 17.3% of Longs, 47.8% of Shorts, balance minus 30.5
Small Specs (14.8% of total) - 7.4% of Longs, 22.0% of Shorts, balance minus 14.6

Commercials had started to reduce their longs, but have not continued. Large Specs have moved slightly to a less negative position. Small Specs have been reducing longs and adding to shorts, although not to a significant degree. We had been prepared to become less positive, but based on these latest figures have decided to remain moderately bullish.

COT data of April 16th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  200884, spreads 2758 - around 1.4% of the total.

Nett differences:
Commercials +86801 (from +95230).  Large Specs -61975 (from -69969).  Small Specs -24826 (from -25261).

Proportions:  
Commercials (53.0% of total o/i) - 74.9% of Longs, 31.1% of Shorts, balance plus 43.8
Large Specs (32.8% of total) - 17.2% of Longs, 48.5% of Shorts, balance minus 31.3
Small Specs (14.2% of total) - 7.9% of Longs, 20.4% of Shorts, balance minus 12.5

COT data of April 9th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  204827, spreads 2953 - around 1.4% of the total.

Nett differences:
Commercials +95230 (from +97863).  Large Specs -69969 (from -65020).  Small Specs -25261 (from -32843).
Proportions:  
Commercials (54.9% of total o/i) - 78.5% of Longs, 31.3% of Shorts, balance plus 47.2
Large Specs (30.8% of total) - 13.4% of Longs, 48.1% of Shorts, balance minus 34.7
Small Specs (14.3% of total) - 8.1% of Longs, 20.6% of Shorts, balance minus 12.5

Tuesday 9 April 2013

COT data of April 2nd 2013 - British Pound [BP]


British Pounds - Total o/i was down fractionally, at 208425, while spreads were also lower, at 2438 - around 1.2% of the total.

Nett differences:
Commercials +97863 (from +95441).  Large Specs -65020 (from -66555).  Small Specs -32843 (from -28886). Commercials reduced their shorts a shade, while Large Specs reduced both longs and shorts; Small Specs again did the reverse, adding to both longs and (especially) to shorts.
Proportions:  
Commercials (53.0% of total o/i) - 76.7% of Longs, 29.2% of Shorts, balance plus 47.5
Large Specs (31.2% of total) - 15.5% of Longs, 47.0% of Shorts, balance minus 31.5
Small Specs (15.8% of total) - 7.8% of Longs, 23.8% of Shorts, balance minus 16.0

The nett balance of Commercials moved higher yet again, at plus 47.5 (a very high figure), while Large Specs showed little change. Small Specs have a somewhat disproportionate share of the total shorts, adding to our view that we should remain on the side of the Commercials.

Sunday 31 March 2013

COT data of March 26th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - With values moving sideways for 10 days or so, and with a long holiday weekend in prospect, it was not surprising to see very little change in commitments in the latest figures. Total o/i was up a shade, at 214636, while spreads were little changed at 2802 - 1.3% of the total.

Nett differences:
Commercials +95441 (from +93602).  Large Specs -66555 (from -61480).  Small Specs -28886 (from -32122). Commercials added marginally to longs and shorts, Large Specs reduced longs and added (once again) to shorts, and Small Specs did the reverse, adding slightly to longs while reducing their shorts.
 
Proportions:  
Commercials (52.3% of total o/i) - 74.8% of Longs, 29.8% of Shorts, balance plus 45.0
Large Specs (33.7% of total) - 18.0% of Longs, 49.4% of Shorts, balance minus 31.4
Small Specs (14.0% of total) - 7.2% of Longs, 20.8% of Shorts, balance minus 13.6

The nett balance of Commercials moved higher again, at plus 45.0 (a very high figure), while Large Specs took up the slack left as Small Specs reduced their involvement. Although the numbers are different, there appear to be similarities in behaviour with the action starting first half June 2012, when - after considerable churning - prices ultimately moved higher. We remain on the side of the Commercials.

Saturday 23 March 2013

COT data of March 19th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i was down as the March position comes off the board, at 212517, still well up from this time 3 months ago. Spreads were much lower, at 2626 - 1.2% of the total.

Nett differences:
Commercials +93602 (from +82484).  Large Specs -61480 (from -49800).  Small Specs -32122 (from -32684). Commercials reduced their positions sharply, but cut shorts more than longs. Large Specs added to positions, particularly shorts, and Small Specs reduced theirs, while increasing their share of the total o/i.
 
Prices have in general moved higher since the figures were struck, with the latest price around 1.5230 after a low of 1.5025 and a high of 1.5250.
Proportions:  
Commercials (52.2% of total o/i) - 74.5% of Longs, 29.9% of Shorts, balance plus 44.6
Large Specs (33.2% of total) - 18.6% of Longs, 47.9% of Shorts, balance minus 29.3
Small Specs (14.6% of total) - 6.9% of Longs, 22.2% of Shorts, balance minus 15.3
The nett balance of Commercials moved to a very high level, at plus 44.6, while Large Specs moved strongly in the other direction, at minus 29.3. The market is now quite finely balanced, with both sides firmly committed, Commercials (long) versus Specs (short) - as usual, we are on the side of the Commercials.