Tuesday 31 December 2013

COT data of Dec 24th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  198063; spreads 2553 (= 1.3%). Closing price on Dec 24th: 1.6355

Nett differences:
Commercials -34332 (from -33548)  Large Specs +14420 (from +17825)  Small Specs +19912 (from +15723)
 

Proportions:
Commercials (57.2% of total o/i) - 48.4% of Longs, 66.0% of Shorts, balance minus 17.6
Large Specs (28.3% of total) - 32.0% of Longs, 24.6% of Shorts, balance plus 7.4
Small Specs (14.5% of total) - 19.6% of Longs, 9.4% of Shorts, balance plus 10.2
 
Very little change in Commercials, and only a slight change in Large Specs as they (comparatively) reduced longs and added to shorts. The main difference was in Small Specs whose long position seems to be becoming rather excessive;  on this basis we could expect any fall, once it starts, to be quite abrupt. 

Friday 27 December 2013

Figures delayed by holidays ...

Please note, COT figures will not be published by the CFTC until Monday evening  ....

Saturday 21 December 2013

COT data of Dec 17th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  191648; spreads 2508 (= 1.3%). Closing price on Dec 17th: 1.6270

Nett differences:
Commercials -33548 (from -36501)  Large Specs +17825 (from +18429)  Small Specs +15723 (from +18072)
 

Proportions:
Commercials (57.5% of total o/i) - 48.6% of Longs, 66.4% of Shorts, balance minus 17.7
Large Specs (28.2% of total) - 32.9% of Longs, 23.5% of Shorts, balance plus 9.4
Small Specs (14.3% of total) - 18.5% of Longs, 10.1% of Shorts, balance plus 8.3

In spite of the sharp reduction in total o/i as the Dec position moved off the board, there was little change in the nett differences. However, proportionately, Commercials reduced their total commitments while adding to their minus balance. This is now at its highest since January; the previous large minus balance was basis Oct 22nd - note that prices fell from both January and the October date. Large and Small Specs both added to longs more than to shorts, and the outlook remains - it appears that the pound will move more easily down than up. 
 

Saturday 14 December 2013

COT data of Dec 10th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  255604; spreads 6350 (= 2.5%). Closing price on Dec 10th: 1.6445

Nett differences:
Commercials -36501 (from -35420)  Large Specs +18429 (from +18369)  Small Specs +18072 (from +17051)
 

Proportions:
Commercials (62.4% of total o/i) - 55.1% of Longs, 69.7% of Shorts, balance minus 14.6
Large Specs (24.8% of total) - 28.5% of Longs, 21.1% of Shorts, balance plus 7.4
Small Specs (12.8% of total) - 16.4% of Longs, 9.2% of Shorts, balance plus 7.2 

Not a great deal of guidance this week, with Commercials a little less short (proportionately), but still taking the short side overall. They have increased their share of the total open interest, so their position may be increasingly significant. Specs - both Large and Small - have reduced their commitments, but not changed their outlook. On balance, it appears that the pound will move more easily down than up.

Saturday 7 December 2013

COT data of Dec 3rd 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  239371; spreads 4039 (= 1.7%). Closing price on Dec 3rd: 1.6395 


Nett differences:
Commercials -35420 (from -12044)  Large Specs +18369 (from +391)  Small Specs +17051 (from +11653)
 

Proportions:
Commercials (59.1% of total o/i) - 51.6% of Longs, 66.6% of Shorts, balance minus 15.0
Large Specs (27.5% of total) - 31.4% of Longs, 23.6% of Shorts, balance plus 7.8
Small Specs (13.4% of total) - 17.0% of Longs, 9.8% of Shorts, balance plus 7.2 


Friday 6 December 2013

COT data of Nov 26th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  214443; spreads 3926 (= 1.8%). Closing price on Nov 26th: 1.6215
 

Nett differences:
Commercials -12044 (from -8095)  Large Specs +391 (from -1665)  Small Specs +11653 (from +9760)
 

Proportions:

Commercials (58.9% of total o/i) - 56.1% of Longs, 61.8% of Shorts, balance minus5.7
Large Specs (27.0% of total) - 27.1% of Longs, 26.9% of Shorts, balance plus 0.2
Small Specs (14.1% of total) - 16.8% of Longs, 11.3% of Shorts, balance plus 5.5


Thursday 5 December 2013

COT data of Nov 19th 2013 - British Pound [BP]


British Pounds - Total o/i  183449; spreads 3818 (= 2.1%). Closing price on Nov 19th: 1.6120


Nett differences:

Commercials -8095 (from +1432)  Large Specs -1665 (from -9303)  Small Specs +9760 (from +7871)

Proportions:

Commercials (54.3% of total o/i) - 52.0% of Longs, 56.5% of Shorts, balance minus 4.5
Large Specs (30.4% of total) - 29.9% of Longs, 30.8% of Shorts, balance minus 0.9
Small Specs (15.3% of total) - 18.0% of Longs, 12.6% of Shorts, balance plus 5.4