Saturday 29 March 2014

COT data of Mar 25th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 202115, spreads 2687 (1.3%).  Closing price March 25th 1.6530
 
Nett differences:  Commercials -42415 (from -39383)  Large Specs +29724 (from +25536)  Small Specs +12691 (from +13847)

Proportions:   
Commercials (61.9% of total o/i) - 51.3% of Longs, 72.6% of Shorts, balance minus 21.3 
Large Specs (26.0% of total) - 33.5% of Longs, 18.6% of Shorts, balance plus 14.9 
Small Specs (12.1% of total) - 15.2% of Longs, 8.8% of Shorts, balance plus 6.4 

Commercials have continued to reduce their longs, and also cut their shorts, but only on an outright basis - proportionately (because of the lower total o/i), they have added to shorts. On balance, they are shorter than normal. Large Specs have moved slightly longer, while Small Specs have reduced positions altogether.

None of these positions are extreme, probably reflecting the overall lack of direction in the market. However, with not much further change in the Dollar Index COT (where Commercials have remained nett long), we stay with a bearish view for the Pound.

Saturday 22 March 2014

COT data of Mar 18th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 208961, spreads 2304 (1.1%).  Closing price March 18th 1.6590
Nett differences:  Commercials -39383 (from -41235)  Large Specs +25536 (from +21999)  Small Specs +13847 (from +19236)
Proportions:  Commercials (62.5% of total o/i) - 53.0% of Longs, 72.0% of Shorts, balance minus 19.0 Large Specs (24.9% of total) - 31.0% of Longs, 18.7% of Shorts, balance plus 12.3 Small Specs (12.6% of total) - 16.0% of Longs, 9.3% of Shorts, balance plus 6.7
Commercials have reduced their longs considerably, while also cutting their shorts; this leaves them on balance slightly shorter than normal, but not to any extreme extent. More noticeably, Large Specs have cut their outright shorts - but (with the sharply lower total o/i) their main change is on proportionate longs. Small Specs have taken the opposite route, reducing outright longs while adding to outright shorts. 

Taken in conjunction with the major change in the Dollar Index COT (where Commercials have moved dramatically to nett long for the first time since mid-December), we revert to a bearish view for the Pound.

Saturday 15 March 2014

COT data of Mar 11th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 250867, spreads 10418 (4.2%).  Closing price March 11th 1.6615

Nett differences: 
Commercials -41235 (from -49582  Large Specs +21999 (from +29605)  Small Specs +19236 (from +19977)

Proportions: 
Commercials (66.1% of total o/i) - 57.5% of Longs, 74.7% of Shorts, balance minus 17.2
Large Specs (22.3% of total) - 26.9% of Longs, 17.7% of Shorts, balance plus 9.2
Small Specs (11.6% of total) - 15.6% of Longs, 7.6% of Shorts, balance plus 8.0

Commercials have added noticeably to their longs, leaving shorts around unchanged. This has brought their 'balance' back to near normal levels - not extreme in either direction, and therefore not providing much guidance as to price direction. Large Specs (who are often right in the short term, but can switch views very rapidly) have reduced longs and reduced their plus balance, but not added much to shorts - so are presumably not confidently bearish. Small Specs (our usual 'contrary indicator') also hold a normal position. Spreads have been reduced again, but remain on the high side - in our view, there is little to indicate medium-term direction. However, a break-out might be expected to continue for some time. 

Saturday 8 March 2014

COT data of Mar 4th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  254013; spreads 13222 (5.2%).  Closing price on Mar 4th 1.6665

Nett differences:
Commercials -49582 (from -49639)  Large Specs +29605 (from +28802)  Small Specs +19977 (from +20837) 
 
Proportions:
Commercials (64.3% of total o/i) - 54.0% of Longs, 74.6% of Shorts, balance minus 20.6
Large Specs (23.3% of total) - 29.5% of Longs, 17.2% of Shorts, balance plus 12.3
Small Specs (12.4% of total) - 16.5% of Longs, 8.2% of Shorts, balance plus 8.3
 
Commercials have added to both longs and shorts, but their balance (both nett and proportionate) remains almost unchanged from the previous week - still tilted to the short side. Large Specs have reduced both longs and shorts, going slightly longer on balance, but not showing much confidence in their view. Small Specs have added very slightly to their shorts. Overall, Commitments remain (in our opinion) biased to the bear tack. 

Spreads have been reduced slightly, but remain high - still denoting indecision?

Saturday 1 March 2014

COT data of Feb 25th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  257037; spreads 14242 (5.5%).  Closing price on Feb 25th 1.6670

Nett differences:
Commercials -49639 (from -40297)  Large Specs +28802 (from +22323)  Small Specs +20837 (from +17974) 
 
Proportions:
Commercials (63.0% of total o/i) - 52.8% of Longs, 73.3% of Shorts, balance minus 20.5
Large Specs (24.8% of total) - 30.7% of Longs, 18.8% of Shorts, balance plus 11.9
Small Specs (12.2% of total) - 16.5% of Longs, 7.9% of Shorts, balance plus 8.6 
 
Commercials have added slightly to their longs, but increased their shorts to a much greater extent. Both Large and Small Specs, on the other hand, have increased their longs. Even though fundamentals appear to suggest the opposite, Commitments remain (in our opinion) biased to the bear tack. 

The big increase in spreads generally denotes indecision - perhaps a major turning point is approaching?