Monday, 26 March 2012

COT data of March 20th 2012

British Pounds - Tuesday's close, at 1.5860, showed some improvement from the previous 1.5700, justifying Commercials' decision to add to longs. The latest figures however are distorted by the close of the March contract, with the total open position way down at 141411 (from 202880). Spreads similarly went down to only 99, from the previous 7246.
In light of these reductions, it seems best to wait for the next set of figures before committing funds - however, one can note that Commercials appear to have lessened their enthusiasm (their nett was plus 20814, and they held only 67.9% of the total long O/I, down from 80.2%, with their shorts around unchanged as a proportion, at 53.2%, from 53.0%).
Large Specs added to longs and reduced shorts, while Small Specs added to longs AND shorts - their share of the total open position is now comparatively high, at 15.4%, compared to a normal 12% or so.
Hopefully the next set of figures will provide more convincing guidance, but for the moment we are not as bullish as we were.

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