Tuesday, 11 October 2011

COT of Oct 7th

Remarkable how many COT markets (principally but not entirely Commodities) are showing Commercials going long - out of 34 that I watch, 15 are at biggest Longs (or smallest Shorts) for the last 12 months - and there's another 3 that were in the same situation last week but didn't continue this time ... So Commercials are bullish on more than half the markets ....

Sunday, 4 September 2011

COT published 2nd Sep 2011

Within a lower than normal total O/I (only 96164), Commercials added to longs and reduced shorts, suggesting a steadier Pound to come. However, their nett position (minus 10.9 on balance) is not abnormal - just much less than the previous week (when they were minus 23.5 on balance). So, not a great deal of movement can be expected.
STATS: spreads minimal (0.2%); Commercials held 36.5% of total longs (from 29.1%), 47.4% of total shorts (from 52.6%), and 42.0% of total O/I (not remarkable). Their nett: minus 10.9 (from minus 23.5).
Big Specs held 32.6% of total longs (from 40.1%), 32.1% of total shorts (from 29.3%), and 32.3% of total O/I (lower than recent average). Their nett: plus 0.5 (from plus 10.7).
Small Specs held 30.9% of total longs (from 30.8), 20.5% of total shorts (from 18.0%), and 25.7% of total O/I (highest since mid-June). Nett: plus 10.4 (from plus 12.8). The high level of Small Spec involvement could mean prices bounce around a bit ....

Monday, 13 June 2011

COT basis June 7th, 2011

GOLD spreads have dropped sharply, from 7.2% of total O/I two weeks ago, to only 2.8%, suggesting more definite views on price direction. However, all that seems to be happening is a reversion to the normal - Commercials are adding to shorts and reducing longs (they're now nett -50.7, from -44.0 two weeks ago), Big Specs are adding to longs and reducing shorts (now nett +40.7, from +35.0 two weeks ago), and Small Specs remain close to home (at +10.0, from +9.0). With Big Specs often providing a better lead than Commercials in this market, we'll stay moderately friendly.

Mini S&P shows a less encouraging picture: Commercials reduced their nett long (now +5.8, from +8.2 two weeks ago and +9.9 last week), adding considerably to shorts and only marginally to longs, while Big Specs moved from nett short (-1.4 last week) to nett long (+1.4 this week). They have a slightly bigger share of the total O/I than usual, at 16.9% (Commercials have 71.2%, Small Specs have 11.9%), so could have an impact if/when they change their view. Small Specs are nett short (at -7.2), but have less weight than usual, meaning that their view should be less significant as a Contrary Indicator than it sometimes is. The path of least resistance looks downward.

Currency positions continued to swing around, but now generally in a move towards the norm. Br Pounds saw Commercials moving back to nett short, at -6.4 from +11.1 two weeks ago); Big Specs reduced their nett short, at -1.5 (from -12.9 two weeks ago), while Small Specs became the holders of the offsetting longs (at +7.9). Their share of the total O/I remains quite low, at 20.7% (vs Commercials at 48.8% and Big Specs at 30.5%). Price direction now looks down rather than up, but there's not much in it.

In EUROS also, positions have continued to revert to type. Commercials are nett short 20.1 (from -8.8 two weeks ago), Big Specs nett long (+17.6, from +7.4), and Small Specs still uncertain, at +2.5 (from +1.4). Commercials added considerably to shorts, and reduced longs, while Big Specs did the reverse - noticeably, they took their share of total shorts down to 15.1% (last week they held 21.8%) - this gives them plenty of room to sell again. We'll join the Commercials on the short side.

Sunday, 29 May 2011

COT basis May 24th, 2011

GOLD - as so often - provides little fresh guidance. Spreads, at 7.2% of total O/I, are increasing, perhaps showing increasing indecision; the share of O/I by category remains much as usual - Commercials 59.6%, Big Specs 31.3%, and Small Specs 9.1%. Total O/I increased, with Commercials adding shorts numerically, but not proportionately - their longs went down on both counts. All suggests UP, but not much.

Mini S&P - Commercials increased their nett long (now 8.2, from 5.0), mainly by cutting shorts. Big Specs moved to nett short (at -0.4, from plus 1.2), but have remained rather non-committal since mid-March. Small specs increased their nett short (at -7.8, from -6.2), and increased their share of total O/I (now at 13.0%), which suggests that any upmove from here could be sharp.

Currency positions continued to change sharply, but in the same direction as previously. Br Pounds showed Commercials moving to nett long, at +11.1 - only 4 weeks ago they were nett -43.2. Big Specs, on the other hand, added to nett shorts, at -12.9, while Small Specs came closer to neutral, at +1.8 (from +8.1). Their share of the total O/I is lower than usual, at 19.6% (vs Commercials at 48.5%, and Big Specs at 31.9%). Price direction looks up rather than down, especially once the Big Specs decide they're wrong to be short.

In EUROS also, positions have continued to move in the prior direction. Commercials are nett short 8.8 (from 20.8), Big Specs nett long (7.4, from 16.7), and Small Specs uncertain, at long 1.4 (from 4.1). Commercials are adding to longs, and reducing shorts, while Big Specs do the reverse - while this action continues, we'll go on bucking the price trend, and expect higher prices in due course.

Monday, 23 May 2011

COT basis May 17th, 2011

Currencies demonstrate how long one might have to wait for Commercials' views to come right - for the last 3 weeks, Commercials have been adding to longs and cutting shorts, but values have been against them - so far, at least ...

In EUROS, spreads have continued to give little guidance, comprising only 0.5% of the total O/I for the last 2 weeks. But Commercials have moved from 23.8% of all longs 2 weeks ago, through 34.5% last week, to 42.5% most recently - the highest level since January. Their shorts, similarly, have moved from 71.5% through 67.5% to 63.2%, giving a nett of minus 20.8 - however, in January, they were nett long ...
Overall latest nett positions were: Commercials minus 20.8 (from minus 33.0), Big Specs plus 16.7 (from plus 25.4, and plus 38.0 the week before). Small Specs were plus 4.1 (from plus 7.6), with their share of the total O/I down to 19.4%, from a more normal 25% or so, which may be evidence of indecision. Commercials are usually right in the long run, but it can be a rough ride ....

BP total O/I continued to move higher, with Commercials adding to longs and reducing shorts, both overall and as a percentage. Their share of the total stood most recently at 40.8%, versus 28.4 and 20.5 in the 2 weeks before. Shorts were 48.0, versus 61.0 and 63.6, with their nett standing at minus 7.2 against minus 32.6 and minus 43.2; Big Specs reduced their proportionate longs, to 29.3 from 38.3 and 48.2, with shorts moving to 30.2 from 21.5 and 23.4. Small Specs also reduced their longs and added to shorts, netting out at plus 8.1, versus 15.8 and 18.3 in the previous 2 weeks. Same comment as Euros applies ...

I had said GOLD and S&P comments would follow - in fact, any changes are minimal, and give little fresh guidance ...

Sunday, 20 March 2011

COT basis March 15th 2011

GOLD total open interest down, but not much - spreads ditto, at 6.2% of the total (versus 6.3% previously). Commercials added to longs, and now hold 35.4% of the total long position; they also reduced their shorts, taking their share of the total down to 81.6%. Their net is minus 46.2, noticeably down from last week's 51.2. Small Specs reduced longs and added to shorts - long share 14.1% (from 15.9), and short share 4.5% (from 4.2), giving a net of plus 9.6. Big Specs reduced longs (50.5%, from 52.4), and (proportionately) added to shorts (13.9%, from 12.9), leaving them nett positive 36.6 (from 39.5). Commercials appear to be looking for higher prices.

Mini S&P nett positions show Commercials minus 1.2 (from plus 0.1), Big Specs plus 6.5 (a major increase from plus 2.9), and Small Specs minus 5.3 (from minus 3.0). Spreads were considerably higher - not surprisingly, in these doubtful times. Small Specs' share of the total O/I is higher than usual, suggesting possibly erratic movements.

BP total was sharply lower, as March went off the board. Commercials reduced longs, but added to their share of the total, at 42.5% (from 33.6); they also reduced their share of shorts from 67.4% to 51.2%, making them on balance short 8.7 (from 33.8). Big Specs reduced their proportionate longs, from 38.5% to 29.1%, and added to proportionate shorts, at 29.3% (from 14.7%) - their nett has moved to minus 0.2, from plus 23.8. Small Specs didn't change much, with their nett plus 8.9 (from plus 10.0), but both Commercials and Big Specs are betting against them.

EUROS also reflected March liquidation, with spreads sharply lower as well. Nett positions were: Commercials minus 33.7 (from minus 29.4), Big Specs plus 24.5 (from plus 24.6), and Small Specs plus 9.2 (from plus 4.8) - this latter might provide a warning sign for Euro bulls.

Wednesday, 9 March 2011

COT basis March 1st 2011

GOLD total open interest up again - spreads ditto, at 5.4% (versus 4.7% previously). Commercials reduced their longs, now holding 32.0% of the total long position, but added noticeably to shorts, with their share of the total up to 83.3%. Their net is minus 51.3, the largest since mid-Dec. Small Specs reduced both longs and shorts, but not significantly - long share 15.2% (from 15.4), and short share 4.3% (from 4.6), giving a net of plus 10.9. Big Specs added to longs (52.8%), while reducing shorts considerably (12.4%), leaving them nett positive 40.4 (from 37.7). Overall, nothing very dramatic, but indicating a lessening of bullish conviction from the Commercials.

Mini S&P nett positions show Commercials minus 0.4 (from plus 1.0), Big Specs plus 2.0 (unchanged), and Small Specs minus 1.6 (from minus 3.0). Spreads were down. Hard to find any signals in these figures.

BP showed a couple of major changes - Commercials reduced shorts from 68.6% to 61.8% while retaining their longs (nett now minus 31.1, from minus 38.1), and Big Specs added to their shorts, now holding 20.9% of the total (making them nett long 20.5, compared to 29.2 last week). Small Specs went slightly longer, (now nett plus 10.6, from plus 9.0). Commercials' positions suggest continued confidence in Pound strength.

EUROS were less positive - nett: Commercials minus 29.7 (from minus 26.4), Big Specs plus 24.1 (from plus 22.3), and Small Specs plus 5.6 (from plus 4.1). Commercials continue to reduce longs and add to shorts (31.3%, from 33.7%, and 61.0%, from 60.1% respectively), and seem happy to sell the rally.

Wednesday, 2 March 2011

COT basis Feb 22

GOLD total open interest continues to rise, as does the spread position, although that remains comparatively low (4.7% against previous 4.5%, and normal 10-13%). Commercials have begun to add to longs, but only hold 33.0% of the total long position - they still appear to be adding more to shorts, although their share of the total is almost unchanged, at 81.5% (nett minus 48.5). Small Specs have added to their share of longs (15.4%), and reduced their share of shorts (4.6%), giving a net of plus 10.8. Big Specs added to longs (51.6%), but also added to shorts (32.8%), leaving them nett positive 37.7. Proportionately, still not very exciting.

Mini S&P nett positions show Commercials plus 1.0, Big Specs plus 2.0,and Small Specs - the biggest change - minus 3.0. Potentially a little bullish. However, Commercials reduced both longs and shorts, and spreads increased, both of which are indicative of doubt.

BP continued in the same direction as previously, contrary to a week ago - Commercials added disproportionately to longs (30.5% of the total, from 21.6%), and reduced shorts (68.6%, from 71.7%), but remained overall short (nett minus 38.1, from minus 50.1). Big Specs held 43.0% of the total longs (well down on the week), but their shorts were barely changed (at 13.8%, compared to 12.3%). This put their nett at plus 29.2, versus 39.6 the previous week. Small Specs again generally reduced commitments, while staying nett long (plus 9.0, versus plus 10.5). Commercials' activity suggests a steadier Pound, softer Dollar.

EUROS were less positive - nett: Commercials minus 26.4 (from minus 22.3), Big Specs plus 22.3 (from plus 17.1), and Small Specs plus 4.1 (from plus 5.2). Small Specs hold 26.3% of the total open interest, but seem very undecided as to direction - Commercials (with 46.9% of the total, and nett short) appear to offer the best guidance.

Tuesday, 15 February 2011

More thoughts (not very different)

(All figures basis Feb 8th)
Gold total open interest is starting to rise again, albeit only slightly. Spreads are still low - around 4.7% of the total O/I, against a normal 10 - 13%. Commercials continue to reduce longs, but are now adding to shorts. Small Spec positions are barely changed - indeed, their nett is the same as last week at 9.6 positive. As usual, Big Specs are following the trend, adding to longs and reducing shorts in a rising market. Overall not very exciting.
Mini S&P nett positions have swung back towards normal - Commercials plus 1.7 (from minus 2.5), Big Specs minus 0.1 (from plus 2.2), Small Specs minus 1.6 (from plus 1.3). Biggest changes are: Commercials adding to longs, and Small Specs reducing longs and adding to shorts - should be bullish in due course. Big Specs added noticeably to shorts.
BP continued in the same direction as previously - Commercials adding disproportionately to nett shorts, Big Specs adding to nett longs, and Small Specs generally reducing commitments, but staying nett long.
Euros also remained on course - nett: Commercials minus 23.9 (from minus 22.2), Big Specs plus 17.3 (from plus 19.1), and Small Specs plus 6.6 (from plus 3.1).
On both, should ultimately bring Dollar strength.

Wednesday, 9 February 2011

COT thoughts

(All figures basis Feb 1st)
Gold total open interest is well down - but much of that is due to liquidation of a major Spread position, said to be based on differential changes rather than on market direction. Spreads are now around 5% of the total O/I, against 14% in early Jan. Commercials are reducing longs more than shorts, whereas Small Specs are holding longs but sharply reducing shorts - both proportionately slightly bearish.
Mini S&P nett positions show major changes - Commercials moving to sizeable nett short, Big Specs going longer than previously, and Small Specs back to near square (from nett short). Should be bearish if anything.
BP and Euros show Commercials adding to nett shorts, Big Specs adding to nett longs, and small specs retaining a small nett long position. Should ultimately bring Dollar strength.

Sunday, 23 January 2011

Something odd in BP & Euro COT

Figures published Jan 21st show a massive fall in Commercial longs and rise in Commercial shorts in both Pounds and Euros. Contrariwise, Big Specs show large rise in longs and large fall in shorts. Nett figs have switched over - BP Commercials are now nett short (from nett long), Big and Small Specs are nett long from nett short - Euro Commercials are now nett short from nett long, and both Big and Small Specs are nett long from nett short. Thought is needed - conclusions asap ....

Sunday, 2 January 2011

Weather Warning ...

Today's Sunday Times reports that Abu Dhabi has been making rain in the desert - do they know about this?

< San Diego offers to pay "rainmaker" Charles Hatfield $10,000 to bring rain to fill a new reservoir. When rain causes flooding and severe damage, the city refuses to pay him. (San Diego, California, USA, Jan 1916)>