Sunday 29 March 2015

CFTC COT data of Mar 24th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]




British Pounds - Total o/i 178140, spreads 2698 (1.5%).  Closing price Mar 24th 1.4850 
 
  Nett differences:  Commercials  +58858 (from +59626)  Large Specs -38557 (from -37851)
                              Small Specs -20301 (from -21775)
  Proportions:
 Commercials (54.6% of total o/i) - 
  71.4% of Longs (from 67.1%), 37.8% of Shorts (vs 35.1%), balance plus 33.6 (vs plus 32.0)
 Large Specs (31.5% of total) - 
   20.5% of Longs (from 25.4%), 42.5% of Shorts (vs 45.7%), balance minus 22.0 (vs minus 20.3)   

  Small Specs (13.9% of total) - 
  8.1% of Longs (from 7.5%), 19.7% of Shorts (vs 19.2%), balance minus 11.6 (vs minus 11.7)

Not much change in outright numbers, but proportionately Commercials have added to longs rather more than they added to shorts, remaining overall on the bull tack. Large Specs cut all positions, while remaining nett short. Small Specs also stayed short - it still seems likely that the Pound will continue to rise.
Dollar Index: Total o/i 116148, spreads 2036 (1.8%). Closing price Mar 24th 97.45
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -88574 (from -100818)  Large Specs +71227 (from +79726)
                              Small Specs +17347 (from +21092)
Proportions -

 Commercials (47.2% of total o/i) - 8.4% of Longs (from 8.5%), 86.0% of Shorts (vs 85.6%), balance minus 77.6 (vs minus 77.1)

 Large Specs (41.9% of total) - 73.1% of Longs (from 73.8%), 10.7% of Shorts (vs 12.8%), balance plus 62.4 (vs plus 61.0) 
  Small Specs (10.9% of total) - 18.5% of Longs (from 17.7%), 3.3% of Shorts (vs 1.6%), balance plus 15.2
 (vs plus 16.1)
   
  Unlike the situation in Sterling, there has been a marked change in nett numbers but very little in the proportionate - Commercials remain short, Specs remain long. We'll stay with the Commercials. 

Saturday 21 March 2015

CFTC COT data of Mar 17th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 188238, spreads 2213 (1.2%).  Closing price Mar 17th 1.4750 
 
  Nett differences:  Commercials  +59626 (from +47650)  Large Specs -37851 (from -32591)
                              Small Specs -21775 (from -15059)
  Proportions:
 Commercials (51.1% of total o/i) - 
  67.1% of Longs (from 66.9%), 35.1% of Shorts (vs 42.8%), balance plus 32.0 (vs plus 24.1)
 Large Specs (35.5% of total) - 
   25.4% of Longs (from 24.3%), 45.7% of Shorts (vs 40.8%), balance minus 20.3 (vs minus 16.5)   

  Small Specs (13.4% of total) - 
  7.5% of Longs (from 8.8%), 19.2% of Shorts (vs 16.4%), balance minus 11.7 (vs minus 7.6)

Commercials reduced shorts considerably, while Large Specs added to theirs - with Small Specs also adding noticeably to shorts, any rise in prices could bring in quite a lot of covering. It seems even more likely that the Pound could strengthen from here.
 
Dollar Index: Total o/i 132548, spreads 1793 (1.4%). Closing price Mar 17th 99.95
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -100818 (from -99734)  Large Specs +79726 (from +81270)
                              Small Specs +21092 (from +18464)
Proportions -

 Commercials (47.0% of total o/i) - 8.5% of Longs (from 11.3%), 85.6% of Shorts (vs 85.9%), balance minus 77.1 (vs minus 74.6)

 Large Specs (43.4% of total) - 73.8% of Longs (from 72.7%), 12.8% of Shorts (vs 11.9%), balance plus 61.0 (vs plus 60.8) 
  Small Specs (9.6% of total) - 17.7% of Longs (from 16.0%), 1.6% of Shorts (vs 2.2%), balance plus 16.1
 (vs plus 13.8)
   
A great deal has happened since the COT figures were taken Tuesday night, including the massive price drop on Wednesday - based on these old figures, Commercials seem very happy to stay with their big short position.

Saturday 14 March 2015

CFTC COT data of Mar 10th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]


British Pounds - Total o/i 205166, spreads 7704 (3.8%).  Closing price Mar 10th 1.5065 
 
  Nett differences:  Commercials  +47650 (from +35400)  Large Specs -32591 (from -26908)
                              Small Specs -15059 (from -8492)
  Proportions:
 Commercials (54.8% of total o/i) - 
  66.9% of Longs (from 61.2%), 42.8% of Shorts (vs 39.7%), balance plus 24.1 (vs plus 21.5)

 Large Specs (32.6% of total) - 
   24.3% of Longs (from 27.1%), 40.8% of Shorts (vs 43.4%), balance minus 16.5 (vs minus 16.3)   

  Small Specs (12.6% of total) - 
  8.8% of Longs (from 11.7%), 16.4% of Shorts (vs 16.9%), balance minus 7.6 (vs minus 5.2)

Commercials have added to longs, both nett and proportionately, although their balance is by no means extreme. Large Specs added noticeably to shorts on a nett basis, but their proportionate figure was not much changed, since the total o/i increased considerably. Small Specs retain a very small proportion of the total, but have added to shorts. All told, we might expect some steadiness for a while.
 
Dollar Index: Total o/i 148486, spreads 14822 (10.0%). Closing price Mar 10th 98.60
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -99734 (from -86444)  Large Specs +81270 (from +67218)
                              Small Specs +18464 (from +19226)

Proportions -

 Commercials (48.6% of total o/i) - 11.3% of Longs (from 11.7%), 85.9% of Shorts (vs 83.1%), balance minus 74.6 (vs minus 71.4)

 Large Specs (42.3% of total) - 72.7% of Longs (from 70.8%), 11.9% of Shorts (vs 15.3%), balance plus 60.8 (vs plus 55.5) 
  Small Specs (9.1% of total) - 16.0% of Longs (from 17.5%), 2.2% of Shorts (vs 1.6%), balance plus 13.8
 (vs plus 15.9)
   
The very large increase in spreads and in the total o/i could be explained by the approach of the March expiry, but otherwise recent trends seem expected to continue - always a dangerous circumstance. 

Saturday 7 March 2015

CFTC COT data of Mar 3rd 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 165737, spreads 1097 (0.7%).  Closing price Mar 3rd 1.5360 (Mar 6th 1.5050)
 
  Nett differences:  Commercials  +35400 (from +33050)  Large Specs -26908 (from -21870)
                              Small Specs -8492 (from -11180)
  Proportions:
 Commercials (50.5% of total o/i) - 
  61.2% of Longs (from 61.3%), 39.7% of Shorts (vs 41.7%), balance plus 2.5 (vs plus 19.6)

 Large Specs (35.2% of total) - 
   27.1% of Longs (from 27.8%), 43.4% of Shorts (vs 40.8%), balance minus 16.3 (vs minus 13.0)   

  Small Specs (14.3% of total) - 
  11.7% of Longs (from 10.9%), 16.9% of Shorts (vs 17.5%), balance minus 5.2 (vs minus 6.6)

 
Commercials have taken some profits on shorts, while Large Specs added to theirs - but price moves since Tuesday night probably mean fresh positions have been taken since then, so not much can be read into these figures. Small Specs remain insignificant.
 
Dollar Index: Total o/i 123981, spreads 2946 (2.4%). Closing price Mar 3rd 95.45
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -86444 (from -87872)  Large Specs +67218 (from +68157)
                              Small Specs +19226 (from +19715)

Proportions -

 Commercials (47.4% of total o/i) - 11.7% of Longs (from 11.2%), 83.1% of Shorts (vs 87.1%), balance minus 71.4 (vs minus 75.9)

 Large Specs (43.0% of total) - 70.8% of Longs (from 70.5%), 15.3% of Shorts (vs 11.6%), balance plus 55.5 (vs plus 58.9) 
  Small Specs (9.6% of total) - 17.5% of Longs (from 18.3%), 1.6% of Shorts (vs 1.3%), balance plus 15.9
 (vs plus 17.0)
   
 As with Sterling, the make-up of open positions has almost certainly changed considerably since Tuesday night - we'll use other tools in the short term. 

Sunday 1 March 2015

CFTC COT data of Feb 24th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]







British Pounds - Total o/i 169784, spreads 1612 (0.9%).  Closing price Feb 24th 1.5450 
 

  Nett differences:  Commercials  +33050 (from +41305)  Large Specs -21870 (from -28798)
                              Small Specs -11180 (from -12507)

  Proportions:
 Commercials (51.5% of total o/i) - 
  61.3% of Longs (from 64.2%), 41.7% of Shorts (vs 39.7%), balance plus 19.6 (vs plus 24.4)

 Large Specs (34.3% of total) - 
   27.8% of Longs (from 25.4%), 40.8% of Shorts (vs 42.5%), balance minus 13.0 (vs minus 17.0)   

  Small Specs (14.2% of total) - 
  10.9% of Longs (from 10.4%), 17.5% of Shorts (vs 17.8%), balance minus 6.6 (vs minus 7.4)
 
Once again, Commercials have cut longs and added to shorts, with Large Specs doing the reverse. Small Specs remain insignificant. The main trend appears to remain as before - upward.


 
Dollar Index: Total o/i 118929, spreads 3170 (2.7%). Closing price Feb 24th 94.52
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -87872 (from -86382)  Large Specs +68157 (from +66062)
                              Small Specs +19715 (from +20320)


Proportions -

 Commercials (49.2% of total o/i) - 11.2% of Longs (from 11.6%), 87.1% of Shorts (vs 88.8%), balance minus 75.9 (vs minus 77.2)

 Large Specs (41.0% of total) - 70.5% of Longs (from 68.5%), 11.6% of Shorts (vs 9.5%), balance plus 58.9 (vs plus 59.0) 
  Small Specs (9.8% of total) - 18.3% of Longs (from 19.9%), 1.3% of Shorts (vs 1.7%), balance plus 17.0
 (vs plus 18.2)
Commercials have not changed positions much, at least on a proportionate basis, but Large Specs have added to both longs and shorts, leaving their balance unchanged. Small Specs are slightly less long on balance - the changes seem to reflect considerable uncertainty here.