Wednesday, 2 March 2011

COT basis Feb 22

GOLD total open interest continues to rise, as does the spread position, although that remains comparatively low (4.7% against previous 4.5%, and normal 10-13%). Commercials have begun to add to longs, but only hold 33.0% of the total long position - they still appear to be adding more to shorts, although their share of the total is almost unchanged, at 81.5% (nett minus 48.5). Small Specs have added to their share of longs (15.4%), and reduced their share of shorts (4.6%), giving a net of plus 10.8. Big Specs added to longs (51.6%), but also added to shorts (32.8%), leaving them nett positive 37.7. Proportionately, still not very exciting.

Mini S&P nett positions show Commercials plus 1.0, Big Specs plus 2.0,and Small Specs - the biggest change - minus 3.0. Potentially a little bullish. However, Commercials reduced both longs and shorts, and spreads increased, both of which are indicative of doubt.

BP continued in the same direction as previously, contrary to a week ago - Commercials added disproportionately to longs (30.5% of the total, from 21.6%), and reduced shorts (68.6%, from 71.7%), but remained overall short (nett minus 38.1, from minus 50.1). Big Specs held 43.0% of the total longs (well down on the week), but their shorts were barely changed (at 13.8%, compared to 12.3%). This put their nett at plus 29.2, versus 39.6 the previous week. Small Specs again generally reduced commitments, while staying nett long (plus 9.0, versus plus 10.5). Commercials' activity suggests a steadier Pound, softer Dollar.

EUROS were less positive - nett: Commercials minus 26.4 (from minus 22.3), Big Specs plus 22.3 (from plus 17.1), and Small Specs plus 4.1 (from plus 5.2). Small Specs hold 26.3% of the total open interest, but seem very undecided as to direction - Commercials (with 46.9% of the total, and nett short) appear to offer the best guidance.

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