Sunday, 20 March 2011

COT basis March 15th 2011

GOLD total open interest down, but not much - spreads ditto, at 6.2% of the total (versus 6.3% previously). Commercials added to longs, and now hold 35.4% of the total long position; they also reduced their shorts, taking their share of the total down to 81.6%. Their net is minus 46.2, noticeably down from last week's 51.2. Small Specs reduced longs and added to shorts - long share 14.1% (from 15.9), and short share 4.5% (from 4.2), giving a net of plus 9.6. Big Specs reduced longs (50.5%, from 52.4), and (proportionately) added to shorts (13.9%, from 12.9), leaving them nett positive 36.6 (from 39.5). Commercials appear to be looking for higher prices.

Mini S&P nett positions show Commercials minus 1.2 (from plus 0.1), Big Specs plus 6.5 (a major increase from plus 2.9), and Small Specs minus 5.3 (from minus 3.0). Spreads were considerably higher - not surprisingly, in these doubtful times. Small Specs' share of the total O/I is higher than usual, suggesting possibly erratic movements.

BP total was sharply lower, as March went off the board. Commercials reduced longs, but added to their share of the total, at 42.5% (from 33.6); they also reduced their share of shorts from 67.4% to 51.2%, making them on balance short 8.7 (from 33.8). Big Specs reduced their proportionate longs, from 38.5% to 29.1%, and added to proportionate shorts, at 29.3% (from 14.7%) - their nett has moved to minus 0.2, from plus 23.8. Small Specs didn't change much, with their nett plus 8.9 (from plus 10.0), but both Commercials and Big Specs are betting against them.

EUROS also reflected March liquidation, with spreads sharply lower as well. Nett positions were: Commercials minus 33.7 (from minus 29.4), Big Specs plus 24.5 (from plus 24.6), and Small Specs plus 9.2 (from plus 4.8) - this latter might provide a warning sign for Euro bulls.

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