Wednesday, 9 March 2011

COT basis March 1st 2011

GOLD total open interest up again - spreads ditto, at 5.4% (versus 4.7% previously). Commercials reduced their longs, now holding 32.0% of the total long position, but added noticeably to shorts, with their share of the total up to 83.3%. Their net is minus 51.3, the largest since mid-Dec. Small Specs reduced both longs and shorts, but not significantly - long share 15.2% (from 15.4), and short share 4.3% (from 4.6), giving a net of plus 10.9. Big Specs added to longs (52.8%), while reducing shorts considerably (12.4%), leaving them nett positive 40.4 (from 37.7). Overall, nothing very dramatic, but indicating a lessening of bullish conviction from the Commercials.

Mini S&P nett positions show Commercials minus 0.4 (from plus 1.0), Big Specs plus 2.0 (unchanged), and Small Specs minus 1.6 (from minus 3.0). Spreads were down. Hard to find any signals in these figures.

BP showed a couple of major changes - Commercials reduced shorts from 68.6% to 61.8% while retaining their longs (nett now minus 31.1, from minus 38.1), and Big Specs added to their shorts, now holding 20.9% of the total (making them nett long 20.5, compared to 29.2 last week). Small Specs went slightly longer, (now nett plus 10.6, from plus 9.0). Commercials' positions suggest continued confidence in Pound strength.

EUROS were less positive - nett: Commercials minus 29.7 (from minus 26.4), Big Specs plus 24.1 (from plus 22.3), and Small Specs plus 5.6 (from plus 4.1). Commercials continue to reduce longs and add to shorts (31.3%, from 33.7%, and 61.0%, from 60.1% respectively), and seem happy to sell the rally.

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