Tuesday, 15 February 2011

More thoughts (not very different)

(All figures basis Feb 8th)
Gold total open interest is starting to rise again, albeit only slightly. Spreads are still low - around 4.7% of the total O/I, against a normal 10 - 13%. Commercials continue to reduce longs, but are now adding to shorts. Small Spec positions are barely changed - indeed, their nett is the same as last week at 9.6 positive. As usual, Big Specs are following the trend, adding to longs and reducing shorts in a rising market. Overall not very exciting.
Mini S&P nett positions have swung back towards normal - Commercials plus 1.7 (from minus 2.5), Big Specs minus 0.1 (from plus 2.2), Small Specs minus 1.6 (from plus 1.3). Biggest changes are: Commercials adding to longs, and Small Specs reducing longs and adding to shorts - should be bullish in due course. Big Specs added noticeably to shorts.
BP continued in the same direction as previously - Commercials adding disproportionately to nett shorts, Big Specs adding to nett longs, and Small Specs generally reducing commitments, but staying nett long.
Euros also remained on course - nett: Commercials minus 23.9 (from minus 22.2), Big Specs plus 17.3 (from plus 19.1), and Small Specs plus 6.6 (from plus 3.1).
On both, should ultimately bring Dollar strength.

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