Wednesday, 9 February 2011

COT thoughts

(All figures basis Feb 1st)
Gold total open interest is well down - but much of that is due to liquidation of a major Spread position, said to be based on differential changes rather than on market direction. Spreads are now around 5% of the total O/I, against 14% in early Jan. Commercials are reducing longs more than shorts, whereas Small Specs are holding longs but sharply reducing shorts - both proportionately slightly bearish.
Mini S&P nett positions show major changes - Commercials moving to sizeable nett short, Big Specs going longer than previously, and Small Specs back to near square (from nett short). Should be bearish if anything.
BP and Euros show Commercials adding to nett shorts, Big Specs adding to nett longs, and small specs retaining a small nett long position. Should ultimately bring Dollar strength.

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