COT data of Apr 22nd 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 237055, spreads 2433 (1.0%).  Closing price April 22nd 1.6800
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -67077 (from -70626)  Large Specs +47800 (from +50598)  Small Specs +19277 (from +20028)

Proportions:   

Commercials (59.2% of total o/i) - 

44.9% of Longs (from 43.9%, 73.5% of Shorts (vs 75.4%), balance minus 28.6 (vs minus 31.5)

Large Specs (28.0% of total) - 

38.2% of Longs (from 39.0%), 17.8% of Shorts (vs 16.4%), balance plus 20.4 (vs plus 22.6)

Small Specs (12.8% of total) - 

16.9% of Longs (from 17.1%), 8.7% of Shorts (vs 8.2%), balance plus 8.2 (vs plus 8.9)

A slight change in emphasis this week, as Commercials added to longs - both outright and proportionately - and reduced shorts (although only proportionately). They remain quite short on balance, however. Large and Small Specs remain long, but none of the figures show any extreme change in attitude.

 

The Dollar Index COT showed little change overall, although Large Specs (who have by far the biggest share of the market - 72.5% of the total open position) went shorter of the Dollar. For the time being, however, we still do not feel particularly bullish on the Pound. 

COT data of Apr 15th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 226688, spreads 2456 (1.1%).  Closing price April 15th 1.6725
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -70626 (from -62900)  Large Specs +50598 (from +46477)  Small Specs +20028 (from +16423)

Proportions:   

Commercials (59.6% of total o/i) - 

43.9% of Longs (from 43.0%, 75.4% of Shorts (vs 71.0%), balance minus 31.5 (vs minus 28.0)

Large Specs (27.7% of total) - 

39.0% of Longs (from 40.9%), 16.4% of Shorts (vs 20.2%), balance plus 22.6 (vs plus 20.7)

Small Specs (12.7% of total) - 

17.1% of Longs (from 16.1%), 8.2% of Shorts (vs 8.8%), balance plus 8.9 (vs plus 7.3)

 

Proportions have continued to move as previously, with Commercials going nett shorter (mainly by adding to short positions), Large Specs going nett longer (mainly by reducing shorts), and Small Specs also going longer (by adding to longs and reducing shorts).

 

The Dollar Index COT shows Commercials becoming rather less bearish on the Dollar, reducing their short positions while adding very slightly to longs. However, concentrating on the BP figures, and based simply on this week's COT, we still cannot feel particularly bullish on the Pound. 

COT data of Apr 8th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 226667, spreads 2324 (1.0%).  Closing price April 8th 1.6745
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -62900 (from -46568)  Large Specs +46477 (from +33572)  Small Specs +16423 (from +12996)

Proportions:   

Commercials (57.0% of total o/i) - 

43.0% of Longs (from 48.8%, 71.0% of Shorts (vs 71.1%), balance minus 28.0 (vs minus 22.3)

Large Specs (30.5% of total) - 

40.9% of Longs (from 36.3%), 20.2% of Shorts (vs 203%), balance plus 20.7 (vs plus 16.0)

Small Specs (12.5% of total) - 

16.1% of Longs (from 14.9%), 8.8% of Shorts (vs 8.6%), balance plus 7.3 (vs plus 6.3)

 

Commercials have again  reduced their longs, this time very considerably, and added to their shorts - even though not on a proportionate basis. They have moved to a noticeable nett short. Large Specs have moved considerably longer (following the trend), while adding very slightly to shorts. Small Specs have - on balance - added to longs.

 

Confusingly, the Dollar Index COT shows Commercials becoming outright bearish on the Dollar, moving from nett long to nett short. Nevertheless, sticking to just the BP figures (and bearing in mind that a large part of the Dollar Index consists of the Euro), we will stay with a bearish view for the Pound.

COT data of Apr 1st 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 211437, spreads 2199 (1.0%).  Closing price April 1st 1.6625
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -46568 (from -42415)  Large Specs +33572 (from +29724)  Small Specs +12996 (from +12691)

Proportions:   

Commercials (59.9% of total o/i) - 48.8% of Longs, 71.1% of Shorts, balance minus 22.3 

Large Specs (28.3% of total) - 36.3% of Longs, 20.3% of Shorts, balance plus 16.0

Small Specs (11.8% of total) - 14.9% of Longs, 8.6% of Shorts, balance plus 6.3

 

Commercials have reduced their longs considerably, on a proportionate basis, and also cut their shorts, but (because of this week's higher total o/i), they seem to be shorter overall. On balance, they remain more short than normal. Large Specs have moved considerably longer, while also adding to shorts (neither move is  surprising, on a rising market). Small Specs have not changed much at all.

As last week, none of these positions is extreme, still reflecting the overall lack of direction in the market. The Dollar Index COT shows Commercials becoming less bullish of the Dollar while remaining nett long. All things considered, we stay with a bearish view for the Pound.

COT data of Mar 25th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 202115, spreads 2687 (1.3%).  Closing price March 25th 1.6530
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -42415 (from -39383)  Large Specs +29724 (from +25536)  Small Specs +12691 (from +13847)

Proportions:   

Commercials (61.9% of total o/i) - 51.3% of Longs, 72.6% of Shorts, balance minus 21.3 

Large Specs (26.0% of total) - 33.5% of Longs, 18.6% of Shorts, balance plus 14.9 

Small Specs (12.1% of total) - 15.2% of Longs, 8.8% of Shorts, balance plus 6.4 

Commercials have continued to reduce their longs, and also cut their shorts, but only on an outright basis - proportionately (because of the lower total o/i), they have added to shorts. On balance, they are shorter than normal. Large Specs have moved slightly longer, while Small Specs have reduced positions altogether.

None of these positions are extreme, probably reflecting the overall lack of direction in the market. However, with not much further change in the Dollar Index COT (where Commercials have remained nett long), we stay with a bearish view for the Pound.

COT data of Mar 18th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 208961, spreads 2304 (1.1%).  Closing price March 18th 1.6590
Nett differences:  Commercials -39383 (from -41235)  Large Specs +25536 (from +21999)  Small Specs +13847 (from +19236)
Proportions:  Commercials (62.5% of total o/i) - 53.0% of Longs, 72.0% of Shorts, balance minus 19.0 Large Specs (24.9% of total) - 31.0% of Longs, 18.7% of Shorts, balance plus 12.3 Small Specs (12.6% of total) - 16.0% of Longs, 9.3% of Shorts, balance plus 6.7
Commercials have reduced their longs considerably, while also cutting their shorts; this leaves them on balance slightly shorter than normal, but not to any extreme extent. More noticeably, Large Specs have cut their outright shorts - but (with the sharply lower total o/i) their main change is on proportionate longs. Small Specs have taken the opposite route, reducing outright longs while adding to outright shorts. 

Taken in conjunction with the major change in the Dollar Index COT (where Commercials have moved dramatically to nett long for the first time since mid-December), we revert to a bearish view for the Pound.

COT data of Mar 11th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 250867, spreads 10418 (4.2%).  Closing price March 11th 1.6615

Nett differences: 
Commercials -41235 (from -49582  Large Specs +21999 (from +29605)  Small Specs +19236 (from +19977)

Proportions: 
Commercials (66.1% of total o/i) - 57.5% of Longs, 74.7% of Shorts, balance minus 17.2
Large Specs (22.3% of total) - 26.9% of Longs, 17.7% of Shorts, balance plus 9.2
Small Specs (11.6% of total) - 15.6% of Longs, 7.6% of Shorts, balance plus 8.0

Commercials have added noticeably to their longs, leaving shorts around unchanged. This has brought their 'balance' back to near normal levels - not extreme in either direction, and therefore not providing much guidance as to price direction. Large Specs (who are often right in the short term, but can switch views very rapidly) have reduced longs and reduced their plus balance, but not added much to shorts - so are presumably not confidently bearish. Small Specs (our usual 'contrary indicator') also hold a normal position. Spreads have been reduced again, but remain on the high side - in our view, there is little to indicate medium-term direction. However, a break-out might be expected to continue for some time.