Saturday, 5 April 2014

COT data of Apr 1st 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 211437, spreads 2199 (1.0%).  Closing price April 1st 1.6625
Nett differences:  Commercials -46568 (from -42415)  Large Specs +33572 (from +29724)  Small Specs +12996 (from +12691)

Commercials (59.9% of total o/i) - 48.8% of Longs, 71.1% of Shorts, balance minus 22.3 
Large Specs (28.3% of total) - 36.3% of Longs, 20.3% of Shorts, balance plus 16.0
Small Specs (11.8% of total) - 14.9% of Longs, 8.6% of Shorts, balance plus 6.3
Commercials have reduced their longs considerably, on a proportionate basis, and also cut their shorts, but (because of this week's higher total o/i), they seem to be shorter overall. On balance, they remain more short than normal. Large Specs have moved considerably longer, while also adding to shorts (neither move is  surprising, on a rising market). Small Specs have not changed much at all.

As last week, none of these positions is extreme, still reflecting the overall lack of direction in the market. The Dollar Index COT shows Commercials becoming less bullish of the Dollar while remaining nett long. All things considered, we stay with a bearish view for the Pound.

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