Saturday, 15 March 2014

COT data of Mar 11th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 250867, spreads 10418 (4.2%).  Closing price March 11th 1.6615

Nett differences: 
Commercials -41235 (from -49582  Large Specs +21999 (from +29605)  Small Specs +19236 (from +19977)

Commercials (66.1% of total o/i) - 57.5% of Longs, 74.7% of Shorts, balance minus 17.2
Large Specs (22.3% of total) - 26.9% of Longs, 17.7% of Shorts, balance plus 9.2
Small Specs (11.6% of total) - 15.6% of Longs, 7.6% of Shorts, balance plus 8.0

Commercials have added noticeably to their longs, leaving shorts around unchanged. This has brought their 'balance' back to near normal levels - not extreme in either direction, and therefore not providing much guidance as to price direction. Large Specs (who are often right in the short term, but can switch views very rapidly) have reduced longs and reduced their plus balance, but not added much to shorts - so are presumably not confidently bearish. Small Specs (our usual 'contrary indicator') also hold a normal position. Spreads have been reduced again, but remain on the high side - in our view, there is little to indicate medium-term direction. However, a break-out might be expected to continue for some time. 

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