Saturday, 22 March 2014

COT data of Mar 18th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 208961, spreads 2304 (1.1%).  Closing price March 18th 1.6590
Nett differences:  Commercials -39383 (from -41235)  Large Specs +25536 (from +21999)  Small Specs +13847 (from +19236)
Proportions:  Commercials (62.5% of total o/i) - 53.0% of Longs, 72.0% of Shorts, balance minus 19.0 Large Specs (24.9% of total) - 31.0% of Longs, 18.7% of Shorts, balance plus 12.3 Small Specs (12.6% of total) - 16.0% of Longs, 9.3% of Shorts, balance plus 6.7
Commercials have reduced their longs considerably, while also cutting their shorts; this leaves them on balance slightly shorter than normal, but not to any extreme extent. More noticeably, Large Specs have cut their outright shorts - but (with the sharply lower total o/i) their main change is on proportionate longs. Small Specs have taken the opposite route, reducing outright longs while adding to outright shorts. 

Taken in conjunction with the major change in the Dollar Index COT (where Commercials have moved dramatically to nett long for the first time since mid-December), we revert to a bearish view for the Pound.

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