Saturday, 12 April 2014

COT data of Apr 8th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 226667, spreads 2324 (1.0%).  Closing price April 8th 1.6745
Nett differences:  Commercials -62900 (from -46568)  Large Specs +46477 (from +33572)  Small Specs +16423 (from +12996)

Commercials (57.0% of total o/i) - 
43.0% of Longs (from 48.8%, 71.0% of Shorts (vs 71.1%), balance minus 28.0 (vs minus 22.3)
Large Specs (30.5% of total) - 
40.9% of Longs (from 36.3%), 20.2% of Shorts (vs 203%), balance plus 20.7 (vs plus 16.0)
Small Specs (12.5% of total) - 
16.1% of Longs (from 14.9%), 8.8% of Shorts (vs 8.6%), balance plus 7.3 (vs plus 6.3)
Commercials have again  reduced their longs, this time very considerably, and added to their shorts - even though not on a proportionate basis. They have moved to a noticeable nett short. Large Specs have moved considerably longer (following the trend), while adding very slightly to shorts. Small Specs have - on balance - added to longs.
Confusingly, the Dollar Index COT shows Commercials becoming outright bearish on the Dollar, moving from nett long to nett short. Nevertheless, sticking to just the BP figures (and bearing in mind that a large part of the Dollar Index consists of the Euro), we will stay with a bearish view for the Pound.

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