Saturday, 22 June 2013

COT data of June 18th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  140550 (from 219176); spreads 1886 (from 21274) - the switch of the spot month still seems to be creating mayhem, but the situation should settle down within the next couple of weeks.

Nett differences:

Commercials +22615 (from +66046).  Large Specs -20406 (from -53687).  Small Specs -2209 (from -12359).  The change in Commercials' positions from 2 or 3 weeks ago, when they were nett long over 100,000 contracts, demonstrates the importance of the "proportional" approach.

Commercials (40.2% of total o/i) - 48.3% of Longs, 32.0% of Shorts, balance plus 16.3
Large Specs (41.5% of total) - 34.2% of Longs, 48.9% of Shorts, balance minus14.7
Small Specs (18.3% of total) - 17.5% of Longs, 19.1% of Shorts, balance minus 1.6

As the best signals are given at times of extremes - of optimism or pessimism - among the classes of participants, and as this time around there are no extremes, we shall wait before committing. 

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