Saturday, 25 May 2013

COT data of May 21st 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  211098, from 198068; spreads 2548 - around 1.2% of the total. As we have said previously, a large number of open spreads suggests indecision, while a low number (such as this) suggests definite commitment.

Nett differences:
Commercials +103998 (from +85169).  Large Specs -76976 (from -65355).  Small Specs -27022 (from -19814).

Commercials (51.5% of total o/i) - 76.4% of Longs, 26.6% of Shorts, balance plus 49.8
Large Specs (34.5% of total) - 16.0% of Longs, 52.9% of Shorts, balance minus 36.9
Small Specs (14.0% of total) - 7.6% of Longs, 20.5% of Shorts, balance minus 12.9

Last week we suggested that it might be best to wait until more commitment was shown by either Commercials or Small Specs - or both. This week we have that commitment - Commercials (the class we like to follow) have gone longer, both outright and proportionately, while Small Specs (the class we like to shade) have gone shorter. Large Specs are with the current trend, cutting longs and (slightly) adding to shorts as the market eases. Based on these figures, it seems likely that Sterling will strengthen against the Dollar.

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